Nope. Real games only.
Posts by Bill Radjewski
Want more historical deep dives like this?
I’ve got full datasets for exploring runs like this 👇
CollegeBasketballData.com
Relatively newer site if you're familiar with my CFB work. Planning to keep building and expanding. Let me know what tools you would like to see!
Beating 9 Sweet Sixteen teams is even rarer.
Only other team to do it:
• 1996 Kentucky
Now it’s Kentucky… and Michigan.
Beating all 3 other Final Four teams?
That’s only happened 11 times since the 1950s.
Michigan just added another.
Closest historical comps:
• 2013 (vacated)
• 1999 UConn
• 1994 Arkansas
Those teams went:
• 3/3 Final Four
• 5/7 Elite Eight
• 6/15 Sweet Sixteen
Michigan cleared all of that.
Michigan didn’t just win the title… they ran through everyone.
• Beat all 3 Final Four teams
• 6 of 7 Elite Eight teams
• 9 of 15 Sweet Sixteen teams
This is an absurd tournament résumé.
Updated historical Elo chart for the newly crowned men's basketball National Champion, Michigan.
Greatest Michigan team of all time? They have a strong argument.
Season Elo Trends - National Title Game Edition
Michigan has hovered near the top of Elo most of the year.
UConn has consistently graded out as an elite team.
Strong vs steady with it all on the line tonight.
Offense gets headlines. Defense wins in March.
The Final Four teams? They do both and that’s why they’re still standing.
More data: CollegeBasketballData.com
Shot distribution contrast in the Final Four:
• Illinois: extreme 3PT reliance (50%)
• Arizona: highest mid-range rate (32%)
• Michigan: near-even rim/3 split
• UConn: efficient modern profile
Philosophy clash this weekend.
Seed Says Chalk. Elo Says Elite.
With two 1-seeds, a 2-seed, and a 3-seed, this was already one of the chalkiest Final Fours of the seeding era. But by pre-tournament Elo, it was even stronger than that seed profile might suggest.
The Sweet 16 breaks into tiers:
🏆 Championship DNA: Duke, Michigan, Arizona
⚠️ Dangerous but flawed: Alabama, Purdue, Illinois
🧊 Defense travels: Nebraska, Houston
Balance still wins in March… usually.
Who survives this weekend?
Sweet 16 advanced stats breakdown 👀
• Illinois: most efficient offense remaining (131.6)
• Duke: best defense left (94.4)
• Michigan: elite two-way profile (123 Off / 98 Def)
• Iowa State: defense + turnover pressure combo
Who cuts down the nets?
Oof. Thanks for letting me know.
Just launched a new Team Leaderboard endpoint + Shooting Profile Explorer 📊
It combines:
• Team stats
• Shooting splits
• Adjusted ratings
→ All in a single call
You can also compare teams side-by-side (great for March Madness matchups)
Available now for $5 tier subscribers:
buff.ly/CEz2IKF
Just added a live scoreboard endpoint to the CBB API:
→ /scoreboard
Perfect for tracking March Madness games in real time:
🏀 Live scores
⏱️ Game status
📊 Easy to integrate into apps, bots, or models
Available to all Patreon subscribers.
Look at the periodPoints fields on the /games endpoint
I made a March Madness Pack for anyone who wants to make smarter picks before the tournament starts.
Inside:
* CSV data files
* Jupyter notebooks
* analysis-ready structure for exploring teams, matchups, and trends
If you want a bracket edge before lock tomorrow: buff.ly/7stmFQL
South Region offensive + defensive breakdown 👀
• Illinois: most efficient offense in the region (131.6)
• Houston: elite defense (#1 in region, 96.6)
• Florida: strong two-way profile (121 Off / 100 Def)
• Vanderbilt: explosive offense but defensive concerns
Who comes out of the South?
Midwest Region offensive + defensive breakdown 👀
• Miami (OH): most efficient offense in the region (133.5)
• Iowa State: best defense (96.1) and strong two-way profile
• Michigan: top seed with elite defensive efficiency
• Saint Louis: strong offense + #2 defense
Who comes out of the Midwest?
🏀 Where do March Madness upsets happen most often?
Historically: the Elite Eight.
This chart comes from the datasets in the March Madness Pack.
Clean tournament data + Jupyter notebooks for bracket modeling.
$25
🔗 buff.ly/7stmFQL
West Region offensive + defensive breakdown 👀
• Purdue: most efficient offense in the region (126.5)
• Gonzaga: elite defense (#1 in region, 93.8)
• Arizona: strong two-way profile (120 Off / 96 Def)
• High Point: potential upset choice?
Which team here has the best shot to win the region?
Bracket models are starting to pop up. 🏀
If you're working on March Madness analysis this week, the March Madness Pack gives you clean historical tournament datasets + notebooks for matchup features, upset trends, and bracket modeling.
$25 on Gumroad
🔗 buff.ly/7stmFQL
Should be the same calc. Could be dataset differences. Or could be opponent-adjustments (these are raw). Thanks for pointing that out, though. Will look into that.
East Region offensive + defensive breakdown 👀
• Duke: elite on both ends (123 Off / 94 Def)
• UConn: slow pace but efficient
• Northern Iowa: top-tier defense
• Kansas: solid on defense but struggling offensively
Which team here is the biggest threat to Duke?
🏀 The March Madness Pack is now live - $25.
Clean historical tournament datasets + guided Jupyter notebooks for bracket modeling, matchup analysis, and upset research.
Built so you can start analyzing this year’s bracket immediately.
🏀 I’m releasing a March Madness Pack on Selection Sunday.
Clean historical tournament datasets + Jupyter notebooks for bracket modeling, matchup analysis, and upset research.
Overview of the data files and notebooks below.
buff.ly/g7vOVoT
buff.ly/xAg6lei
March Madness is coming.
If you’re building a bracket model, now’s the time.
CBB Starter Pack:
🏀 1950–present data
📊 Tournament included
📈 Elo ratings
📓 Analytics notebooks
Plus something new dropping soon 👀
👉
Kentucky
A streak of good games to end the season will also pad a team's Elo rating. In that regard, the 2018's BTT championship run surely helps to pad them up a little bit.