trump blasts democrats for voting against his "big beautiful bill" which kicked 10 million people of their health insurance, took food away from literal children, and supercharged ice and cbp - all while giving enormous tax cuts to the rich.
below is a graph showing winners/losers from the bill.
Remember- your Super Bowl winnings are currently taxable on your 1040!
The full report can be found on
@budgetlab.bsky.social
website here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/rea...
We find that a simple per bet tax can raise $1.4B while a 10% tax on the value of the bet can raise $196B over the budget window. These taxes also reduce adolescent boy sports gambling which is currently 12% of boys aged 11-17.
With the growth of sports gambling since 2018, we
@budgetlab.bsky.social
decided to work through some illustrative examples of taxes on sports gambling. We discuss how 'sin taxes' like these can raise revenue and change behavior.
With the Super Bowl coming up this weekend, I got to work on some of my favorite things: Sports, Booze, and Taxes.
Elena Patel of @brookings.edu Rural counties with closer access to post offices consistently have higher levels of small-business activity, with the strongest relationships concentrated in sectors that account for a large share of rural self-employment. www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
The OBBBA also reduced the number of 'simple filers' that would candidates for a direct file program:
Here's a simple table:
The 'No Tax On' provisions in the OBBBA add to the complexity of the tax code and increase the time burden for many filers as compared to simple TCJA extension. For the lowest 2 quintile groups, OBBBA is worse than TCJA expiration in terms of time burden.
We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.
It is important to note that any projection of the debt depends on future interest rates. Our analysis does not include any increase in interest rates due to higher debt.
~fin~
Over the 2025-2055 window, the scenarios of the bill (as written and perm, and w/ and w/o Byrd provisions) have costs from $19.4T (1.14% of GDP) to $21.7T (1.27% of GDP).
Overall, we find a similar 10 year "as written" budget cost as JCT found: $4.1T. If you make temporary provisions permanent the cost goes up to $4.5T. If provisions that are judged to violate the Byrd Rule are removed, we find the cost rises to $4.3T for "as written" and $4.6T for the perm scenario.
New analysis out from @budgetlab.bsky.social. A look at the Senate Finance version of the reconciliation bill.
We consider the effects as written and all provisions made permanent. We also consider the recent Byrd Rule issues with some provisions. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fin...
Assuming that the US raised the "reciprocal" tariff rate on the EU from 10% to 50%, what would be the economic effect?
The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff.
1/7
3.) If the provisions become permanent, the debt-to-GDP ratio would hit 200 percent in 2055. The only countries that currently have a higher debt-to-GDP ratio are Sudan and Japan.
2.) If temporary provisions became permanent, the cost over the 2025-2034 window is $5.0 trillion and over the 2025-2055 window is $23.7 trillion. ($2.5 trillion and $13.5 trillion respectively, if possible tariff revenue is taken into account.)
Key takeaways from the report:
1.) As written, the tax bill under consideration by the House would add $3.4 trillion to the debt over the 2025-2034 window and $15.3 trillion from 2025-2055.
Hey gang- we at @budgetlab.bsky.social did some work on the Ways & Means text this week:
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...
Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/
There are challenging tradeoffs between revenue, competitiveness, and burden. Full implementation of pillar 2/BEPS yields the most revenue. Coupling this change with business friendly modifications could ease any competitiveness or burden concerns.
International Tax is complicated. There are a lot of moving parts. We at @budgetlab.bsky.social did our best to explain the current state of international taxation and how revenue to the US would
change under possible Pillar 2/BEPS project scenarios here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inter…
On 4/9, join us for a conversation about DOGE & the administrative state, featuring former Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Tax Law Center experts including former OMB Director Shalanda Young and professors @lilybatch.bsky.social & @davidkamin.bsky.social
taxlawcenter.org/events/nyu-l...
New @budgetlab.bsky.social report today featured in @politico.com Weekly Tax. “Policy changes aimed at limiting buy-borrow-die are a natural place for reform in the current tax code” www.politico.com/newsletters/...
Important new work from my @budgetlab.bsky.social colleagues Harris Eppsteiner & John Ricco on the House budget resolution. Neutral illustrative policies consistent w/ committee deficit targets suggest the proposed tax + spending cuts are regressive: they benefit the top & hurt the bottom.
1/3
There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social
