Topologists anticipated the Strait of Hormuz problem long ago.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clopen_...

Appears that everything is in for NJ-11, and Mejia overperforms Harris by 11% and Biden by 3%. This is indeed the weakest overperformance among the seven Congressional special in Trump II, and below the average overperformance among the 104 state and federal legislative specials of Trump II.

"He has high name recognition and is thus attracting reasonably high support, making him the likeliest Democrat to avoid a lockout" is literally the only relevant quality at this stage. We are well past wish-casting for a perfect candidate.

We have not met.

Thank God we have data journalists on the case.

bsky.app/profile/gell...

The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle

There have only been 7 such elections, so a small sample.
But of the 100+ state & federal specials in Trump II, Mejia's performance would be in line with the avg Harris shift and 5 points below the avg Biden shift.
At best, it's a fine if unspectacular performance.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Mejia takes got baked in based on the blue EV.
If late mail & Essex push Mejia to +21, that'd make it the weakest shift relative to Biden among Trump II-era Congressional specials, and a tie with TN-07 for the weakest shift relative to Harris.
Not great evidence for "ideology doesn't matter."

ECP_CA_4.16.2026.xlsx

Polls are *still* showing a lockout. Just an obscene collective action failure by California Democrats.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Kean still missing votes due to unspecified medical issue - New Jersey Globe Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) has missed a month’s worth of votes on Capitol Hill due to a medical issue, and his office has not said what the issue is

May he get well and lose to @rebeccabennettforcongress.com.

newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kea...

Democrats May Have Finally Learned How to Deal With Their Worst Instincts. This Senate Race Is Proof. Never has there been greater clarity about the distance between voters and the moral purists who lurk online.

We can nominate the unqualified, scandal-plagued scion of a wealthy family, solely because his indecency reads to swing voters as masculine agency.
It won't undo our censorious excesses. It won't put Al Franken back in the Senate.
It will just make us more like Republicans.
slate.com/news-and-pol...

He is literally the next highest polling Dem.

CA-Gov is such a clusterfuck. Time to rally around Steyer, I guess.

Looks like Chattooga county is done in GA-14: 12-point shift relative to Greene vs. Harris in 2024. Uniform swing would imply a 17 point R win and a ~20 point Dem overperformance relative to Trump 2024.

Charter Reform Commission just proposed expanding the Council to 25 and using RCV, among other reforms. Unclear what will make the November ballot, but the governance structure could change somewhat dramatically in the years to come.

BOOM:

The penumbras and emanations of the S&P 500 are apparently unknowable to mere mortals who read the news (and the oil markets, too).

Q.26 Which of the following comes closest to what you think the U.S. policy on financial and military assistance to Israel should be? Total The U.S. should provide unconditional financial and military assistance to Israel............................................ 31 The U.S. should only provide financial and military assistance to Israel if they comply with U.S. law ........... 44 The U.S. should stop providing financial and military assistance to Israel ........................................................ 26

GBAO survey of 800 US Jewish voters for @jstreetdotorg.bsky.social:

– Generic ballot: 67-24 Democrat
– "Support or oppose the U.S. military action against Iran": 60-40 oppose
– Just 31% support "unconditional financial and military assistance to Israel"

www.politico.com/f/?id=000001...

Have not loved all those Pappas +1 or 2 polls lately…

McMorrow slams El-Sayed for campaigning with Hasan Piker, compares Piker to Nick Fuentes McMorrow: ‘That is not somebody that you should be campaigning with at a moment when there is clearly a lot of pain and trauma across our state’

Good for her.

jewishinsider.com/2026/03/mall...

Lefty dudes will contort themselves into intellectual pretzels to get around the basic fact that they are supporting Mr. Blackwater Failson-Nazitattoo entirely based on vibes. Your shame will outlast this primary season.

Not as calamitous as CA-Gov (yet), but it sure seems like Hong is both the weakest general election candidate for WI-Gov, and currently leading in all the primary polling.

Do it.

USC cancels gubernatorial debate amid uproar over candidates of color being excluded Democratic legislative leaders on Monday called on voters to boycott USC's upcoming gubernatorial debate if the university does not invite candidates who were excluded from participating.

CA Dems are about to identity-politics themselves straight into Governor Chad Bianco.

www.latimes.com/california/s...

Hell yeah, go Nithya

bsky.app/profile/poll...

Warren warned Hegseth's tattoo made him a potential 'threat' — now she backs candidate with Nazi-linked ink Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorsed Maine Democrat Graham Platner despite his Nazi-linked tattoo after she once questioned Hegseth over his Christian tattoos.

The fact that this is actually a reasonable, founded attack by Fox News makes me furious: www.foxnews.com/politics/war...

Project Hail Mary was good insofar as it was a linear combination of Interstellar, Arrival, and The Martian, all of which are themselves good (although only barely in the case of Interstellar).

Writing as someone on Planned Parenthood's staff when it finally took aim at Susan Collins for her fake pro-choice bull: The _last_ thing Dems should want is to set Collins up to once again pose as a feminist champion.

Her message vs. Platner is lay-up simple. Don't give her the chance to use it.

Don't forget Tulsi!

It also presupposes that Collins — who, for all her faults, is a savvy operator who regularly outruns the presidential vote in her state by 15+ points — wouldn’t make mincemeat out of Platner. What’s the benefit of his appeal to moderate men if he alienates liberal women?

Warren endorsing Platner is unforgivable. His supporters can lie to themselves all day, construct half hearted counter narratives, lazily point to his military service as though it forgives all sins. The unqualified, racist, misogynistic scumbag is still plain for all to see.