Bulgaria’s former president claims ‘victory’ after projections show him winning parliamentary elections Rumen Radev – an EU critic who has called for renewing ties with Russia - looked set to top the polls in the country’s eighth election in five years

… www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...

Why I don't expect liberal democracy to go away any time soon: My article on the resilience of liberal democracy, published in @jeppjournal.bsky.social.

Perfectly timed to the day after Orbáns defeat and a small spike in "democracy-optimism".

There are, I argue, good reasons for such optimism.

Party ID “explains far more variation in elite climate beliefs than ideology, trust in science, or broader conspiratorial predispositions.”

State Judges Turn to Guns in New Era of Judicial Threats A Times examination reveals thousands of threats against state judges, in addition to assaults and fatal attacks. Judges say local law enforcement agencies often can’t offer adequate protection.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a nationwide alert late last year to law enforcement agencies: Harassment of judges has surged, and the trend is likely to continue. The New York Times has identified thousands of threats targeting state judges in the past three years alone.

Porto is so lovely! I hope you had a wonderful time.

Wildlife trade drives animal-to-human pathogen transmission over 40 years

New in @science.org ‼️ In the most comprehensive study to date, we show that wildlife trade is driving animal-to-human zoonotic spillover at a planetary scale, with +1 spillover per host every 10 years. Live animal markets and illegal trade pose even greater risks. 🔓 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Thrilled that my paper (w/@sarahobolt.bsky.social,@catherinedevries.bsky.social,@simonecremaschi.bsky.social) was accepted at the American Political Science Review!

We find that declining public services fuel support for the populist right — and show why the right benefits more than other parties 🧵

A fascinating thread. (Also fantastic if you are teaching research design.)

Trump's VA killed a home loan program. Vets are now losing their homes because of it Foreclosures on VA loans are at their highest level in a decade. VA has a fix but it is months away and could still leave vets worse off than most other homeowners.

More than 10,000 veterans lost their homes to foreclosure since May of last year, when the Trump admin shut down a key safety net in the VA home loan program, according to the latest industry data.

That is the highest pace of foreclosures for VA loans in a decade.

It is out! We find that linked fate (or lack thereof) helps explain 2024 Trump support in young Latinos. @mattlamb.bsky.social @landgravephd.bsky.social spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Do the clothes make the candidate? In my paper with Steven Perry, we find candidates who dress more formally were perceived as more politically sophisticated, & indirectly had increased support. The text complexity of candidate messages had no effect.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Opinion | Every President Tries It. It Never Works.

My @nytopinion.nytimes.com piece discusses the failures of Trump's strategy to create manufacturing jobs--but puts it in the broader context of the previous failures to achieve this goal and why it isn't the right goal to start with. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/o...

This is exceptionally interesting. "Each $1,000 increase in maximum EITC benefits cut voter turnout by 0.5 percentage points, reduced Democratic identification by 1.8 points, and raised Republican identification by 1.1 points." The mechanisms point toward the importance of environmental factors.

"Those with an immigration background from established democracies are more likely to support green parties than those from (post-)authoritarian regimes. [...] immigrants build on experiences from their origin country when participating in politics in their host country."

Ukraine war briefing: Children ordered to leave key Ukrainian stronghold as Russians advance Compulsory evacuation of children begins in Sloviansk. Kyiv still expects first tranche of 90bn euro loan despite Hungary veto. What we know on day 1,487

Ukraine war briefing: Children ordered to leave key Ukrainian stronghold as Russians advance

I have a new story with @rebeccafelliott.bsky.social on how Meta and others, seeking power for data centers, are building their own power plants.

These projects have transformed places like New Albany, Ohio, where farmland has given way to industry.

Gift link: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

When you have nice colleagues. :)

'AI Is African Intelligence': The Workers Who Train AI Are Fighting Back Kenyan workers are still the underpaid labor behind AI training, moderation, and sex chatbots. The Data Labelers Association is fighting back.

"AI is an extractive technology that relies on the brutal labor of underpaid workers around the world. For years, the work of African data labelers has been more or less “ghost work,” the unseen, hidden labor that lets American tech companies build their products." www.404media.co/ai-is-africa...

This will be the 3rd edition. If you study pol. behaviour and work on #CEE, this is the right place to present your research. Dates: June 25-26. Discussants include @simonhix.bsky.social & @eliasdinas.bsky.social. Highlight: roundtable on dem. erosion with H. Kriesi, M. Svolik & N. Wunsch.

🚨New version of paper🚨
osf.io/preprints/os...
How do oligarchs shape policy outcomes in developing democracies?
I argue they do so through informal networks of legislators personally linked to them.
Using unique quantitative & qualitative evidence from Ukraine, I show that:

How welfare policy affects immigration attitudes Social policies shape public opinions on immigration. A study by Alina Vrânceanu and Bilyana Petrova shows that in Western Europe, generous welfare systems – perhaps counterintuitively – make natives…

🌀

👣 @alinavranceanu.bsky.social & @bpetrova.bsky.social show that in Western Europe, generous #welfare systems – perhaps counterintuitively – make natives more favourably inclined toward #immigrants.

💸Indeed, cutting benefits risks exacerbating anti-immigrant sentiment
👇🏾

The Biden Admin directed hundreds of billions to clean energy/manufacturing.

Did these investments shift public opinion?

We find that these projects are visible but not traceable: People notice nearby investments, but connect them to Governors, not Biden.

Thread 👇
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Out-group homogeneity as evidence of left-right identification in multi-party democracies | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core Out-group homogeneity as evidence of left-right identification in multi-party democracies

Left vs Right is becoming personal 🔴🔵

New cross-national evidence by N. Lin, L.P. Santoso & R.T. Stevenson shows voters in Western democracies are developing emotional attachments to the Left and Right as social groups, but how will this impact voting?

Conflict and Maternal Health Cambridge Core - Politics: General Interest - Conflict and Maternal Health

In this Element, @fthames.bsky.social + @ladyprofessor.bsky.social takes a large-N approach to exploring whether inequality variation in states at conflict leads to variation in women's health outcomes. Free to download now! 2/

www.cambridge.org/core/element...

William Shakespeare, 400 years ago. 👏

Look at how being diagnosed with cancer impacts people's involvement in crime!

US green manufacturers lost at least 10,000 jobs last year Employment losses across the clean energy sector undercut the Trump administration's broader push to revive U.S. manufacturing.

Major loss of manufacturing jobs during Trump 2.0's first year in office. Unsurprisingly, clean energy manufacturing hit especially hard ...
www.eenews.net/articles/us-...

Who wants to accelerate digitalization? Evidence from the next generation EU program Post-industrial governments around the world are increasingly prioritizing policies to accelerate digitalization, but despite the growing literature on technological change and the knowledge econom...

📢 Publication alert: Governments are investing in digitalization intensively, but we know little about who supports this policy. We investigate this question in this new article with Alex Kuo, @retobuergisser.bsky.social, and @siljahausermann.bsky.social published at JEPP
doi.org/10.1080/1350... 🧵

I honestly got 2025 and 2026 mixed up… 🙃