Color me surprised that this happened before the Appeals Court decision. Happy to have been wrong

I would define success as an endd to the war, with a much weaker regime. One that will be much less of a threat to it's neighbors and that could hopefully be toppled by the Iranian people one day

So even if I end up being right, I will be wrong and you will be right?

We will know in a few weeks if this works or not

These people murdered 30,000 of their own people for protesting. This might be the only language they can understand. They are barbarians (and so is he)

He might be the person uniquely suited to deal with despotic, dictatorial regimes because he thinks like them

I don't think they will buy UMG before it's 100% certain they won't be forced to make a bid for Vivendi. They want UMG to stay low for now

but they also said ultimate expenses will be 20% less which is still a lot

In France are you allowed to just fire everyone and liquidate, get out of leases and other obligation? Wouldnt that cost be substantial

Seems unfair to give everything a fair value and then ignore the $100 million a year in overhead

In the unlikely case the appeals court rules in favor of CIAM, what price do you think Bollore would be forced to pay if prices stay where they are today

the banks must be raking it on bond issuance this quarter

Equity put/call ratio .80 yesterday

They are at 15 times forward earnings and have numerous options that would take the shares higher
-they are underlevered and cash generative so they could buyback stock
-they could sell SPOT shares and buyback stock
- raise the dividend
-list in the US
Call me crazy but they want this

IMO this is the work of VB. As long as there is a chance he will have to buy VIV he doesn't want UMG higher

seems like health insurers have some of the opposite risk being priced in

Is there any clue as to what the ultimate debt ratio goal is?

Would have been so easy to increase the dividend. It's almost as if they don't want the shares higher

I see they made some small acquisitions this year. Any clue what they add up to?

Lagardere has a bunch of money losing, trophy assets. I'm sure they won't do it, but monetizing those assets would bring in cash plus make earnings go up

The lawyers fees they paid are probably a multiple of the value of their position

That is for certain. Their debt ratio should be back to where it was pre covid. The real question is if they restore the dividend to where it was or just bump it a little from here

CIAM had such a small position in Vivendi. What was the point of all this?

Seems there are a lot of people that want to drive anyone out of their echo chamber if they don't pass a purity test

He writes economic articles about the Federal Reserve. People read him to understand what the Federal Reserve is thinking. It's not politics. People are making it into politics

He said that the feedback over there is occasionally not political and discusses the substance of his economic arguments

I was just thinking that Bollore would not buy any UMG before there is a ruling from the appeals court. If they are forced to buy Vivendi they want UMG as low as possible.

This is the crazy shit that is driving him away

I like the UMG business and believe it deserves a better multiple. The capital allocation has been awful imo. Buying all these emerging labels that add almost nothing to cash flow and earnings. How do you address that concern?