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Posts by doinkboy

Last week this man was Chamberlain to his own Hitler. This week he is Judas to his own Jesus.

One can pile up the blasphemies and the ironies or one could just say that this man is unwell.

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A Meta-Analysis of the Impact and Heterogeneity of Explicit Demand Characteristics Demand characteristics are a fundamental methodological concern in experimental psychology. Yet, little is known about the direction, magnitude, and consistency of their effects. We conducted a three-...

#statstab #526 A Meta-Analysis of the Impact and Heterogeneity of Explicit Demand Characteristics

Thoughts: The impact of the design on conclusions is under-appreciated

#demandcharacteristics #design #methodology #error #bias
#metascience #metaanalysis

online.ucpress.edu/collabra/art...

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ScienceFriday.com Your trusted source for news and entertaining stories about science.

Tim Errington and Abel Brodeur will be on Science Friday today talking about the reproducibility, robustness, and replicability projects in the social and behavioral sciences.

Listen live at 2p ET, or at the website after:

www.sciencefriday.com

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Reflections on The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist Why the Biggest Challenges of AI Technology are Human.

There is no good vs. bad AI. The promise and peril are inextricably linked.

The big take home is that we need to take collective action to change the incentive structure before it's too late.

Read our summary of the entire event here: www.powerofusnewsletter.com/p/reflection...

2 weeks ago 14 3 1 0

In follow-up work, we will examine sources of interdependence, shared fate, and cooperation (1) among dyads to study bidirectional (i.e., partner) effects, (2) whether shared fate guides partner-choice decisions, and (3) consequences for social integration & wellbeing (9/10).

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How do people know whom, and how much, to help? we (@jessicadayers.bsky.social @leecronk.bsky.social Daniel Balliet @jeremykoster.bsky.social & @athenaaktipis.bsky.social) tackle this question among the Mayangna of northern Nicaragua, who rely primarily on horticulture for subsistence 🧵(1/10).

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Part 2 of my shrinkage estimator series is out! Part 1 covered the univariate case, but now we dive into multivariate shrinkage 🤓

We cover Spearman's classic correlation disattenuation formula, multivariate James-Stein estimators, and hierarchical methods too

haines-lab.com/post/how-to-...

3 weeks ago 42 15 2 3
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

🌐Online First Publication:

Good years. Bad years. Your family feels every one of them.

A new 16-year study from Shrout et al. on what really drives marriages toward — or away — from the edge. 💒
doi.org/10.1177/0265...

#AcademicSky #Psychology #SocialPsychology #FamilySci #ResearchPublishing

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2026 American Causal Inference Conference | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

2026 American Causal Inference Conference
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/28/2...

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Core Intuitions of Psychological Non-Contradiction: Infants Assume That Individual Agents Act and Communicate Coherently AbstractHumans generally posit that contrary mental states are unlikely to co-exist within a single mind. We tested the early ontogeny of this assumption in two domains: action and communication. Studies 1A and 1B tested whether 9-month-old infants assume that agents act coherently. Infants watched interactions between two hands whose owner(s) were invisible. In the contrary goals condition, the hand performed contrary actions—one hand reached for an object while the other impeded it. Later, during test trials, infants learned that the hands belonged to one or two people. Looking-time patterns across the contrary goals and a baseline conditions indicated that clear goal conflict led infants to infer two agents, suggesting they viewed it as unlikely for a single person to thwart their own goal. Study 2 tested whether infants assume communicative coherence, testing whether they assume that a single informant is unlikely to entertain and communicate conflicting information while two informants might do so. Informants pointed to indicate a toy’s location to 15-month-olds. When two different informants each pointed to a different place, infants did not follow one pointing gesture more than the other. However, when a single informant pointed successively to two locations, infants followed the second gesture, implying they viewed it as an updated, not contradictory, message. Thus, infants assumed that a single informant is unlikely to contradict themselves (i.e., by asserting that a toy is simultaneously in two locations). These findings reveal an early-emerging assumption of psychological coherence in infants’ representation of other minds, across both action and communication contexts.
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Causal inference with change scores | A. Solomon Kurz Part 8 of the GLM and causal inference series.

For this specific topic, this post is even better. Spoiler, use either the ANCOVA-change or the ANCOVA-post. solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2023-06...

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The descent of the light serpent at Chichen Itza: Maya engineering and the spring equinox 🐍

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So sad. I worked for him the 60s and met him. One my heros no longer. 😥

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Krueger J, Mueller RA. Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance. J Pers Soc Psychol. 2002 Feb;82(2):180-8. PMID: 11831408.

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The main result in this study can be simply explained by the combination of the well known "better-than-average effect" and "regression toward the mean" (Krajc & Ortmann, 2008; Krueger & Mueller, 2002).

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We would greatly appreciate it if you could help us by sharing our research!

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Congrats!

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Corruption, Chaos, and a Crooked Peace Plan in Ukraine Podcast Episode · Talking Feds · 01/01/2026 · 1h 6m

“Witkoff & Kushner are not acting in the interests of the US or our global interests or those of our allies. They’re acting in the interests of their milieu, maybe themselves. This is grand scale corruption of a kind we haven’t had in the US, and it does resemble Putin’s Russia.”
—Anne Applebaum

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The difficult people in your life might be making you biologically older A new study in PNAS suggests that stressful relationships can physically age you. Researchers found that having "hasslers" in your social network is associated with a faster pace of cellular aging and increased risk of disease.

The difficult people in your life might be making you biologically older

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What is being criticized is the use of a change score to measure an INDIVIDUAL'S causal effect.

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Readers should pay attention to Julia's footnote: "Technically, you can calculate change scores and then compare them between the groups – that gives you an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect" -- an inefficient estimate. What is being criticized ...

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Nice to see this classic again!

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Everyday wisdom in 30” from @jayvanbavel.bsky.social @davidmcraney.bsky.social
Your attention is your most valuable resource (“pay”) so don’t let others decide how you use it. Scrolling adds up!
No “view from nowhere”, believing is seeing.
Most political content on SM is a tiny minority opinion.

1 month ago 14 3 1 0
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February 28, 2026 Early this morning, the U.S.

Why now? To what end? And for whose benefit? heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/february-2...
“Last week, Hugo Lowell of The Guardian reported that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, both of whom have deep financial ties to the Middle East, 1/4

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to undermine the remarkable achievements of the United States by casting its founding principles and historical milestones in a negative light." -- #Trump should immediately remove the negative and vitriolic plaques in the White House Walk of Fame criticizing American presidents, Biden & Obama.

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In the spirit of the #Trump executive order of March 27, 2025 -- "Americans have witessed a concerted and widespread effort to rewrite our Nation’s history, replacing objective facts with a distorted narrative driven by ideology rather than truth. This revisionist movement seeks...

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Hi everyone, if you're looking for a #SPSP2026 talk to go to at a ridiculously early hour (8am), I'm giving a talk on how your childhood memories change when you're an adult (Room E258, Level 2; McCormick Place). Here's a preview!

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