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Posts by Sebastian Buhai

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How does the amount of information required to monitor many players scale with their number? In repeated games, we show cooperation turns on the ratio of the discount rate and the per-capita channel capacity of the stage game monitoring structure www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

1 day ago 2 1 0 0
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Is the pope Catholic? JD Vance thinks he has an answer | Marina Hyde When it comes to theology, Donald Trump’s vice-president clearly knows best. Are we about to see an American break with Rome, asks Guardian columnist Marina Hyde

Is the pope Catholic? JD Vance thinks he has an answer | Marina Hyde

5 days ago 115 33 30 12
Announcing the Winners of the 2026 Econometrica Prizes - The Econometric Society I am pleased to announce the winners of the 2026 Econometrica prizes. The 2026 Arrow Prize for the best theory paper published in Econometrica in the preceding...

Econometrica is pleased to announce the 2026 Frisch Medal for the best applied paper, awarded to Adrien Bilal, Niklas Engbom, Simon Mongey, and Giovanni L. Violante for “Firm and Worker Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market.”
www.econometricsociety.org/society/news...

1 week ago 8 3 0 0
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Polarization happens www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

1 week ago 2 3 0 0
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Energy Transitions in Regulated Markets (Forthcoming Article) - Natural gas has replaced coal as the dominant fuel for U.S. electricity generation. However, utilities in regulated U.S. states have retired coal more slowly than others. We build a structural model of rate-of-return regulation during an energy transition where utilities face tradeoffs between lowering costs and maintaining and using legacy capacity. A regulated utility facing carbon taxes lowers short-run coal generation 48% as much as a cost minimizer would. Thirty years after a sudden energy transition, a cost minimizer has retired 71% more coal capacity than the regulated utility. Alternative regulations may jeopardize affordability and reliability goals during energy transitions.

Forthcoming in the AER: "Energy Transitions in Regulated Markets" by Gautam Gowrisankaran, Ashley Langer, and Mar Reguant.

1 week ago 9 3 0 0
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Congratulations to Matei Zaharia on receiving the 2025 #ACMPrize in Computing! He is recognized for his visionary development of distributed data systems and computing infrastructure which has enabled large-scale #machinelearning, analytics, and #AI at a global scale. buff.ly/TrYHoci

2 weeks ago 5 1 1 1
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Notre fille de 8 ans est partie en classe verte en nous laissant une lettre à ouvrir après son départ : " Ne pleurez pas comme des bébés. Amusez-vous sans moi. Je reviens dans cinq jours. " Elle quitte la maison une semaine ; le pouvoir, lui, reste.

2 weeks ago 18 1 1 0
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Analyzing the impact of direct-to-consumer advertising (DCTA) on profits by modeling a counterfactual environment where DCTA is banned, from Pierre Dubois and Ariel Pakes www.nber.org/papers/w35025

2 weeks ago 7 1 0 0

Pentru economia de timp..., jurnaliștii care mă caută pe teme (socio)economice românești sunt invitați să verifice întâi dacă nu le-am tratat DEJA în eseuri recente pe www.sebastianbuhai.c... (e.g., www.sebastianbuhai.c..., www.sebastianbuhai.c..., www.sebastianbuhai.c... etc.).

2 weeks ago 7 1 0 0
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Most of her Easters were in Paris; Santiago de Chile has somehow made her even more motivated. My daughter remains the house’s undisputed egg-dyeing artist. Some children hunt eggs. She curates them!

2 weeks ago 9 0 0 0
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🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science.

Here’s what we found 👇

3 weeks ago 166 89 2 21
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#NoKings in Chicago.

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Chris Sims, who passed away in March 2026, reshaped modern macroeconomics by insisting that theory and data speak together. A pioneer of vector autoregressions, Bayesian methods, and policy relevant modelling, he transformed how scholars and practitioners analyse economic dynamics and inform central bank decisions. His influence spanned econometrics and macroeconomics, from DSGE models to rational inattention. Beyond his intellectual legacy, Sims was a demanding yet deeply supportive mentor whose sharp insights pushed generations of students to produce stronger work. This personal reflection highlights both his groundbreaking contributions and the lasting imprint he left on the field and on those he taught.

Chris Sims, who passed away in March 2026, reshaped modern macroeconomics by insisting that theory and data speak together. A pioneer of vector autoregressions, Bayesian methods, and policy relevant modelling, he transformed how scholars and practitioners analyse economic dynamics and inform central bank decisions. His influence spanned econometrics and macroeconomics, from DSGE models to rational inattention. Beyond his intellectual legacy, Sims was a demanding yet deeply supportive mentor whose sharp insights pushed generations of students to produce stronger work. This personal reflection highlights both his groundbreaking contributions and the lasting imprint he left on the field and on those he taught.

Chris Sims, who passed away in March 2026, reshaped modern macroeconomics by insisting that theory and data speak together. F Bianchi, M Del Negro, G Primiceri, & F Schorfheide reflect on his contributions to the profession and the impact he had on those he taught.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

3 weeks ago 12 4 0 0
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Progressive Paris has many weapons to fight the far right, but the best? Spaces where you can simply hang out | Alexander Hurst Drop into any of the French capital’s ‘third places’ and you’ll find food, culture, community – and an antidote to the disaffection extremists feed on, says Paris-based writer Alexander Hurst

Progressive Paris has many weapons to fight the far right, but the best? Spaces where you can simply hang out | Alexander Hurst

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Kronos Quartet: Tiny Desk Concert
Kronos Quartet: Tiny Desk Concert Tom Huizenga | March 23, 2026 We rarely invite the same band back to the Tiny Desk. But the beloved Kronos Quartet, which first played our offices 12 years ago, isn't the same band. Three of the four members are brand new: Cellist Paul Wianko succeeded Suny Yang; violinist Gabriela Diaz and violist

Kronos Quartet returns to NPR Music's Tiny Desk 75% new and 100%... Kronos: David Harrington still at its core, three electrifying new players around him, the same fearless instinct for making strings sound like tomorrow. A legend, rewritten in four parts.

3 weeks ago 2 0 0 0

Lads, I ain’t Sun Tzu, but here’s a line in his general vicinity (or not): conflict isn’t the problem; stagnation is. Avoid friction and life becomes boredom with better branding. The trick is self-command: don’t hand the wheel to adrenaline; stay calm, stay determined, drive on.

4 weeks ago 6 2 1 0
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#Musique
🎵 « Quels #concerts symphoniques pour demain ? »
📌 Table ronde avec Esa-Pekka Salonen, chef d’#orchestre et compositeur et Christian Thompson, directeur de l'Orchestre de Paris, en partenariat avec la @philharmonie.bsky.social.
⏰ Mardi 31 mars 2026
👉 https://tinyurl.com/mta96bud

4 weeks ago 1 3 0 0

This paper grew out of many long—cross-disciplinary—conversations about the relevance of extremes in economics, and about how to treat them seriously in analysis. My hope is to make that case more structural, more transparent, and eventually more useful. Comments are welcome!
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In a labor market network application, inequality in access to job leads maps into inequality in top wage outcomes. The paper also studies how opportunity access could, in principle, be reallocated under implementation frictions, through an entropy-regularized design problem.
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The main tool is a transport geometry for heterogeneous extremes. It delivers robustness bounds for whole distributions, structured counterfactual paths between economies, and a clean separation between approximation error and heterogeneity effects. All in a unified language.
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Here, I take the distribution of opportunity access as the object of study and ask how changes in it reshape the entire law of extremes. Not just one cutoff probability. The whole top end, including the full schedule of top quantiles. In an integrated way, not point by point.
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Standard extreme value theory studies maxima under deterministic sample sizes. Economic life is rather different: search, networks, attention, and access, among others, render the number of opportunities itself heterogeneous across agents. That heterogeneity changes extremes.
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Why do some workers end up with much higher top wages than others, even when wage offers come from the same distribution? Because extremes aren't only about tails, but also about who gets more chances. NEW PAPER! The Geometry of Heterogeneous Extremes: arxiv.org/abs/2603.2...
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4 weeks ago 5 1 1 0
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My family treated me to Endémica-Summer @ Boragó for my bday, and Santiago is provisionally a solved problem. Best meal in the city yet, filed in my world top 10. Some restos serve dinner; this one advances the literature. Refereeing continues next season!
https://borago.cl

4 weeks ago 9 1 1 0
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Romania intre convergenta economica si blocaj institutional - The Sebastian Buhai Blog Câteva fragmente din noul meu eseu ” România între convergență economică și blocaj instituțional. De ce următorul ciclu de dezvoltare depinde de un contract de competență ” pot fi citite mai jos. Eseul întreg se poate accesa aici, ca PDF.    România între convergență economică și blocaj instituțional De ce următorul ciclu de dezvoltare depinde de … Continue reading "Romania intre convergenta economica si blocaj institutional"

România a ieșit din epoca scuzelor. Intră în era competenței. Noul meu eseu: între convergență economică și blocaj instituțional, următorul salt de dezvoltare cere un contract de competență.

Fragmente pe blog: blog.sebastianbuhai....
Text integral ca PDF: www.sebastianbuhai.c...

4 weeks ago 17 9 0 2
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Shin nominated governor of Bank of Korea BIS top economist chosen to lead monetary policy amid won weakness and oil price shock

Hyun Song Shin governor of the Bank of Korea, Hélène Rey his successor at the BIS.

And suddenly, we're in an international macrofinance Avengers Assemble moment.

1 month ago 15 4 1 1

So, I almost never use dictation software. But I was in a mood today and tried for bit. “Strait of Hormuz” came out “street of hormones,” which kind of makes sense …

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Anoche en CA660 el jazz le ganó a la aritmética: Pancho Molina Trío abrió; Ángel Parra Trío siguió (eran cuatro, yapa pícara); y el cierre, con Pancho Molina en la batería del grupo de Ángel Parra, fue de antología. Todo, pero todo, soberbio.
(corpartes.cl/blog/iconos-...)

Prueba 👇

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Chuck Norris contra o Comunismo - legendado
Chuck Norris contra o Comunismo - legendado No auge da ditadura comunista de Nicolae Ceauşescu, na Romênia, o único canal de televisão com permissão para operar no país era estatal, com duas horas de transmissão diariamente. Com o controle completo da cultura, todos os filmes estrangeiros precisavam ser aprovados pelo comitê de censura do gov

Not all know that in Ceaușescu's Romania, Chuck Norris wasn’t just an action star: he was a symbol of freedom. Smuggled VHS tapes gave people a forbidden window to the world. Salute to a legend—and to cinema’s power to inspire hope.
#ChuckNorrisVsCommunism

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Assume we have a strait opener

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