The suggested 70% of '24 non voters promise they will vote next time doesn't seem too likely and distorts the regular voter transfers a bit. Lab to LD looks 2nd behind Lab to Green although closer in size to Lab to Ref. Con to LD does seem like down to a trickle or just noise compared to pre '24

Put in the Louvre

The huge loss for the fans of having the Women's Paris Roubaix on the same day is really being proven right now

Organisers chose to save money and it shows

Even though the men's finished early they can't show the women's race because it wasn't in the plans or contracts to be ready by now

Mathieu van der Poel, I tried to warn you

Big Race Jasper with a Big Race Podium again

Big Race Jasper is looking calm in that front group of six btw

#ParisRoubaix

It's also mad how timid the Democrats are at condemning Trump who is at this point clearly the worst President since Jefferson Davis led the Confederacy in the Civil War

After a brief debate with myself I settled on most dangerous (both powerful and evil) in 50 years as being since Mao but can see the argument for being since Stalin

Sure this is 'good' but also shows how utterly deranged Americans are that the two polled equally poorly

Biden, fell on his sword over Afghan, was blind to Israel, but is mostly unpopular for inflation and being old

Trump is all those faults worse plus the most dangerous man of the last 50 years

Basically there's a 'Republican emotional support bombing targets list' now and they fully expect to just pick it up whenever the mood takes them

Do think it's worth remembering the USA's full position is:

They should be allowed to randomly assassinate heads of State and expect immediate surrender or else they'll bomb everything

but like more bombing than before, which they also can do whenever, or any other assassinations for that matter

They've done it again, two valleys in a row I swear the motorbikes have paced the front just enough to keep it two up front before the next hill

Oh look Remco is closing now the motorbikes are gone, but can't quite make it before the next climb

There was a good minute of pacing there that has really affected the race

Actually quite annoyed at how much motor drafting Van der Poel and Pogacar are getting

Like any fan, I will never truly understand chess, but my initial reaction was 'why draw when there's so much asymmetrical shit on the board?' and I stand by that even after opening the app and seeing the repetition. Chess is a such a too clever it's actually dumb kinda game I swear

Now just two undefeated players left in the Open, Sindarov and... Bluebaum. Well his next is Fabi, playing basically a must win with white. If Matthias holds that then sweep is truly destined

A man who's turning up to make draws and gain rating. Think I respect it honestly

It's a once in 40 year event where Scotland has the most interesting league in Europe

Very much a browses BBC sports app without following a particular team kind of football fan

But not enough people have noticed Hearts are leading the Scottish League as it's genuinely historic

You'd have to remember Alex Ferguson's Aberdeen for the last time a non Glasgow club actually won

Well obviously they meant modern Italy, who left no negative legacy in East Africa, as one of the more anti imperial nations of the last 100 years...

Well it is disappointing we can't quite say 99% of voters rejected the conservatives

Anyway I'm glad Matt Goodwin ate shit, cause he is a shit and is shit

People when they vote for a party generally expect them to do and say things they like and that help their lives. A party that goes out it's way to piss it's supporters off instead, well low and behold your once voters are unhappy and feel like saying so with their votes

And when a party is doing that all successfully people react and then the next day some more people like them will too and they gain support. It's not just magic numbers in a table you're trying to measure it's people to whom politics does actually matter

Also people shouldn't think polls are all like science experiments trying to get the same result. Elections are about people and they react to things in the news and from messaging and from knowing what others like them think, so yeah parties will want to show the first best evidence they get

Cause this does keep happening in upset by-elections and getting dismissed when it is actually saying something useful. A party gaining on a big swing will draw level *at some point* in the campaign and there's something to learn in when that is rather than dismiss any poll saying it's happened

Like assuming the poll was in the field couple weeks out, one of those three tied parties was very clearly improving it's standing through the campaign one going backwards and one that could maybe do a bit better or worse but was mostly where you'd expect from their coverage and results last year(s)

Tbh I think any take of 'cant trust the constituency polls' is itself wrong because narrow race a few weeks back seems about right when a party starting a distant third runs a good campaign and wins comfortably. It's because they spent the time convincing people and continued to do so

An experiment that brought them many wins but never delivered on its full promise and brought a bitter fallout. We can hope they find success again with a classic collective approach and stop new rivals with dubious international backing from dominating... Guess we'll see how far the analogy can go

My bet is Qatar and I don't have the proof but I think Stage for just before the intermediate sprint. Mørkøv takes it Kartsen Kroon came third and I recon this pic is both of them as Mørkøv passes his lead out

Honestly Lotto 2010s aren't a bad analogy for the Greens. Old team but long second favourite with fans used to Quickstep (Labour) winning. But hey maybe there's an end of an era coming in Belgian cycling soon, and with a new leader they're winning... Okay Polanski as Greipel is a stretch but funny