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Posts by Nathaniel Geiger

This is a great data visualisation.

It clearly shows why policy interventions that support/subsidise driving tend to not just miss an opportunity to reduce inequality, they are likely to entrench inequality, because those in the most deprived areas will derive the least benefit.

6 days ago 46 25 1 0
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Survey research is often interpreted as showing that belief in conspiracy theories can be surprisingly widespread, including belief in conspiracy theories that would be astonishing if true. For example, in The Atlantic we learn that “12 million Americans believe lizard people run our country”

1 week ago 80 36 3 11
Environmental Research Communications
LETTER

Political elites' partisan beliefs about climate change
OPEN ACCESS
Alexander C Furnas'*®, Timothy M LaPira? O and Salil D Benegal' ©


Addressing climate change requires political elites to share a basic set of facts about climate science, yet political elites in the United States are divided in their views about climate change. We document

this using the first large-scale survey of over 3,500 U.S. political elites-including elected officials, staffers, regulators, lobbyists, and policy professionals—to assess the partisan divide in beliefs about climate change held by political elites. We show near-unanimous agreement among the Democratic elite on the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring, primarily caused by humans, and widely recognized by scientists. In contrast, substantial minorities of Republican elites reject these scientific facts, with fewer than half affirming anthropogenic climate change and nearly one-third endorsing a climate-related conspiracy theory. Comparing elites to the general public, we find that political elites are more aligned with climate science, but partisan gaps among elites are as wide as those observed in mass opinion. Regression analyses show partisan identity explains far more variation in elite climate beliefs than ideology, trust in science, or broader conspiratorial predispositions. These findings suggest that partisan polarization among elites reflects not only strategic electoral behavior but also privately held attitudes.

Environmental Research Communications LETTER Political elites' partisan beliefs about climate change OPEN ACCESS Alexander C Furnas'*®, Timothy M LaPira? O and Salil D Benegal' © Addressing climate change requires political elites to share a basic set of facts about climate science, yet political elites in the United States are divided in their views about climate change. We document this using the first large-scale survey of over 3,500 U.S. political elites-including elected officials, staffers, regulators, lobbyists, and policy professionals—to assess the partisan divide in beliefs about climate change held by political elites. We show near-unanimous agreement among the Democratic elite on the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring, primarily caused by humans, and widely recognized by scientists. In contrast, substantial minorities of Republican elites reject these scientific facts, with fewer than half affirming anthropogenic climate change and nearly one-third endorsing a climate-related conspiracy theory. Comparing elites to the general public, we find that political elites are more aligned with climate science, but partisan gaps among elites are as wide as those observed in mass opinion. Regression analyses show partisan identity explains far more variation in elite climate beliefs than ideology, trust in science, or broader conspiratorial predispositions. These findings suggest that partisan polarization among elites reflects not only strategic electoral behavior but also privately held attitudes.

I've got a new paper out today with @timlapira.bsky.social and @salilb.bsky.social in ERC showing that party ID strongly structures political elites' beliefs about climate change. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

1 week ago 78 26 6 6
Clean Energy Candidates Win Majority in SRP Election, Delivering Historic Rejection of Partisan Influence FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Phoenix, Arizona — [April 8, 2026] — Clean energy candidates secured a decisive 8–6 majority on the Salt River Project (SRP) Board of Directors following a historic...

Wow, and wow again.

Clean energy candidates have beaten a concerted campaign by Turning Point USA and captured a board majority at the Salt River Project, Arizona's 2nd-largest utility

Lots of us pitched in on this fight, not knowing if a win was possible. It was!
www.ariseia.org/news/clean-e...

1 week ago 959 240 12 17

This post is part of a longer thread and we really wanted to make sure it got attention from our community. Many thank you's to Paige Amormino (@amormino.bsky.social) for putting together this action guide to help scholars advocate for the Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences!

2 weeks ago 11 6 0 0
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The NSF 2027 budget has noted that they will close out the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Science Program (SBE). This is not a good thing. nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/files/FY-202...

2 weeks ago 550 396 22 93
FEMA Official Says He Teleported to Waffle House. Experts Are Dubious.

Gregg Phillips, who is in charge of responding to fires and floods, says the hand of God suddenly and mysteriously moved him to a 24-hour breakfast spot in Rome, Ga.

FEMA Official Says He Teleported to Waffle House. Experts Are Dubious. Gregg Phillips, who is in charge of responding to fires and floods, says the hand of God suddenly and mysteriously moved him to a 24-hour breakfast spot in Rome, Ga.

Folks, I give you the New York Times

2 weeks ago 7312 1453 519 632
a new article from Nature called:
"Investigating the analytical robustness of the social and behavioural sciences."

highlighted section says:
"Of the reanalyses conducted, 74% reached the same conclusion as the original investigation, 24% yielded no effects or inconclusive results and 2% reported the opposite effect."

a new article from Nature called: "Investigating the analytical robustness of the social and behavioural sciences." highlighted section says: "Of the reanalyses conducted, 74% reached the same conclusion as the original investigation, 24% yielded no effects or inconclusive results and 2% reported the opposite effect."

my hot take is that this is a *fantastic* result & reason for optimism:

2 weeks ago 27 8 1 1
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To keep climate science alive, researchers are speaking in code Words considered "woke" are vanishing from National Science Foundation proposals. We tracked the changes.

To keep climate science alive, researchers are speaking in code

3 weeks ago 21 9 1 2
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we are losing so much talent, progress, and hope for no good reason www.vox.com/future-perfe...

1 month ago 1252 583 33 58
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I have literally watched something like 5 hours of this DOGE bro testimony. I'm completely obsessed, it's weirdly captivating. The circular arguments, the disdain from everyone involved, a true pleasure to watch

Follow 404 Media on Instagram (www.instagram.com/404mediaco/) for more like this

1 month ago 624 166 73 45

Yuppppp

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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We have a new paper out on how the AI boom is creating a scientific monoculture! Everything AI.

"The task for social science is to ensure that, in navigating this moment, we do not become artificial ourselves."

www.nature.com/articles/s44...

Led by the brilliant @cecilietraberg.bsky.social

1 month ago 42 21 2 1
The political effects of X's feed algorithm
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2
Received: 16 December 2024
Accepted: 4 January 2026
Published online: 18 February 2026
Open access
• Check for updates
Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m
Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects.
Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.

The political effects of X's feed algorithm https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2 Received: 16 December 2024 Accepted: 4 January 2026 Published online: 18 February 2026 Open access • Check for updates Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects. Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.

A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right.

Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement.

This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.

2 months ago 6499 3246 159 411
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Are LLMs Taking Online Surveys? We discuss the results of our study assessing the capabilities of an agentic AI tool called Operator and identifying methods for detecting AI-assisted survey interviews.

Something related:

5 months ago 3 1 0 0

Journalism is not in fact better when it integrate betting markets.

2 months ago 3 1 1 0
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This new paper offers practical solutions for pluralistic ignorance (when people assume their opinon is unpopular when many others share it):

-in loose cultures, share accurate information
-in tight ones, lowering the costs of speaking up can spark social change.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

2 months ago 40 17 0 0
One on left is a black dog and above it the words “Reality”. Below it is “I chased a squirrel” 

One the right is a black dog and above it says “LinkedIn”. Below it says, 

Proud to announce that I effectively executed a rapid-response squirrel displacement strategy to mitigate potential yard intrusions.

Humbled by the unwavering support of my family and local stakeholders.

This experience reinforced the importance of vigilance, ownership, and continuous improvement.

Looking forward to scaling this impact in future engagements.

One on left is a black dog and above it the words “Reality”. Below it is “I chased a squirrel” One the right is a black dog and above it says “LinkedIn”. Below it says, Proud to announce that I effectively executed a rapid-response squirrel displacement strategy to mitigate potential yard intrusions. Humbled by the unwavering support of my family and local stakeholders. This experience reinforced the importance of vigilance, ownership, and continuous improvement. Looking forward to scaling this impact in future engagements.

😂

2 months ago 4459 1202 70 108
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It Turns Out Waymos Are Being Controlled by Workers in the Philippines During a Congressional hearing, Waymo's chief safety officer, Mauricio Peña, was grilled over the company's reliance on overseas workers.

Once again, it turns out “fully autonomous” means “a guy in the Philippines.”

2 months ago 22262 6742 622 1072
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Bari’s sole, career-defining trick is to repackage bog-standard elite opinion as something “edgy” and “heterodox.”

There is an audience for that product, and the audience has a lot of spare cash. (You will never go broke telling rich people what they want to hear.)

But it’s a NICHE audience.

2 months ago 372 56 5 2
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Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2025 Based on preliminary economic and energy activity data, we estimate that in 2025, US greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4%, marking a change from the prior two years of decreases in emissions.

It probably won't shock you to learn the US regressed on greenhouse gases last year, with emissions up 2.4% after 2 years of decline and even growing faster than GDP. We're moving in the wrong direction.

rhg.com/research/us-...

3 months ago 9 7 0 0
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Journalists often go on hand-fed ride-alongs with agents.

Seldom, though, do they get into the cars of everyday people protecting their communities from those same agents.

We just did exactly that, in ICE-occupied Minneapolis:

3 months ago 3038 832 22 34
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via Minneapolis photographer Chris Juhn on Facebook

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Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?

In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.

Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

4 months ago 49 32 1 4
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Many religions are heavily concentrated in a few countries Half of the world’s population lives in just seven countries. But some of the world’s religious groups are even more concentrated than that.

MY LATEST: Many religions are heavily concentrated in a few countries.

4 months ago 134 44 4 9
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Associate Professor - Madison, Wisconsin, United States Current Employees: If you are currently employed at any of the Universities of Wisconsin, log in to Workday to apply through the internal application process.Job Category:FacultyEmployment Type:Regula...

We're hiring at the Associate Professor level in Social Psychology! Join us in our vibrant and wonderful department and area. Contact Markus Brauer, search committee chair, for details (markus.brauer@wisc.edu). Job ad here: shorturl.at/nnvv8

4 months ago 39 26 1 5
Three Surprises From Attempting To Replicate Recent Studies in Top Psychology Journals
Amanda Metskas
December 4, 2025
How has the replication rate of psychology studies changed in recent years? 

Are we still experiencing a “replication crisis,” where only 40-60% of results replicate when the study is conducted again?

Three Surprises From Attempting To Replicate Recent Studies in Top Psychology Journals Amanda Metskas December 4, 2025 How has the replication rate of psychology studies changed in recent years? Are we still experiencing a “replication crisis,” where only 40-60% of results replicate when the study is conducted again?

"Replication rates are higher than experts predicted and p-hacking is much less common than we expected!"

replications.clearerthinking.org/three-surpri...

4 months ago 61 21 1 3

I say it a lot, but if you want to make an immediate impact get involved in local politics, especially if you're in a smaller community. Attend a planning board meeting. Run for town meeting. Meet with town employees. You can *actually* change things and make your community better.

4 months ago 41 8 2 2
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Google Scholar Is Doomed Academia built entire careers on a free Google service with zero guarantees. What could go wrong?

Since search is dead, how soon do you think Google Scholar is headed for the Google Graveyard? I'm betting it's soon, and academia is NOT prepared

8 months ago 939 406 54 132