I agree. Seems like an overreaction / expecting more bad news to come during future updates?

Q2 2025 Portfolio Review Up 10.34% in Q2 25, 10.25% YTD

No Deep Dives Q2 2025 letter

+10.34% vs 2% for S&P 500 (EUR)

nodeepdives.substack.com/p/q2-2025-po...

ACKCHYUALLY: Pabrai Didn’t Beat Blackjack. He Got Lucky His "system" is just variance

Pabrai says he got banned from a Vegas casino for beating blackjack.

His system? Bet small when losing, big when winning.
Cool story.

It's also just that. A story

nodeepdives.substack.com/p/ackchyuall...

Tactile Fund LP | Dave Waters | Substack Tactile Fund LP makes long-term investments in companies with extraordinary physical assets. The Tactile Substack tracks the fund's progress and profiles its investment philosophy and holdings. Click ...

New post on tactilefund.substack.com. A link to our first quarter letter and a recent conversation. Thanks for reading!

The Trade War Nobody Wins. Except ... Why tariffs, supply chain cracks, and dollar weakness set up aircraft lessors for another big win

Curious to hear AerCap’s comments on the whole tariff situation and don't want to wait a whole day until their Q1 25 earnings? #AER

I got you.

open.substack.com/pub/nodeepdi...

Q1 2025 Portfolio Review Flat YTD vs -8.7% for S&P 500 in EUR

No Deep Dives Q1 2025 letter

-0.13% vs -8.69% for S&P 500 (EUR)

nodeepdives.substack.com/p/q1-2025-po...

Americans delay home improvements in latest blow to US housing market High interest rates and uncertainty over immigration policy discourage homeowners from selling or renovating properties

"Americans delay home improvements" (FT)

"Jeld-Wen forecast revenues would drop 4-9%"
"AO Smith forecast flat to modest sales growth"
"Home Depot forecast 1% rise"

"Trump’s eagerness to deport undocumented workers poses a particular threat" to construction

$JELD $AOS $HD

Millicom is at their leverage target and will pay out about $510m as dividends. That still leaves $240m "spare cash" for 2025 for potential special dividends or share buybacks.

And "The 2025 targets exclude net proceeds and any impact from strategic initiatives"

Millicom out with FY24 Results $TIGO

'24 FCF: $725m (vs estimates of $675m)
'25 FCF guidance: $750m (vs $703m est)

At $28, that's about 15.3% LTM FCF yield, 15.8% fwd

Reconfirming a quartertly $0.75 dividend to be sustained or grown
(That's $3 per year or 10.7% dividend yield)

Belgian squeeze‐out rules can be funny:

• Majority owner of Exmar holds > 88%, leaving a free float of just ~11.5%
• He tenders at €11.50/share
• To squeeze out, he must reach 95% of shares AND > 90% of the free float needs to tender

= a minority of 1.2% can block the deal

Oh wait, it's actually his pitch for the $HHH transaction

www.sec.gov/Archives/edg...

After Herbalife, Ackman is out with a new short!

- Economically sensitive business mode
- Limited ability to raise capital
- Always trades at a discount to NAV because NAV is not an appropriate benchmark
- Limited strategic options on a standalone basis
- Limited interest from potential acquirors

Goeie titel. Mag hij zijn bijzondere succesvergoeding van een half jaar geleden houden?

"The Tequila Boom Is Over. The Tequila Price War Has Begun" (WSJ)

"High-end brands incl. Diageo’s Casamigos and Bacardi’s Patrón have been lowering prices for more than a year"

Diageo "now positioning Casamigos at a lower price point than its Don Julio brand"

$DGE $DEO $BF.B

Q4 2024 Portfolio Review Up 4.14% in Q4, 22.8% for FY24

No Deep Dives' Q4 2024 "letter"

nodeepdives.substack.com/p/q4-2024-po...

Millicom (Tigo) announces new shareholder remuneration policy Millicom (Tigo) announces new shareholder remuneration policy Luxembourg, January 14th, 2025 – Millicom International Cellular S.A. (

#TIGO Millicom just announced their new capital allocation policy:

$3 regular yearly dividend paid in quarterly increments, to be sustained or grown

On a $25 share price, this is a yield of 12%!

How is this possible?
Because the stock is cheap AF and has a FCF yield of 16%+

Elon Musk is Lying About Being Good at Video Games YouTube video by Quin69TV

Gamers know, so who's he actually trying to impress? :D

www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmEe...

The portfolio returned 27.8% in 2024, but that will be covered in a different post.

This one is just a quick word about each position in the portfolio at the start of 2025

Model Portfolio Going into 2025 19 Shades of Value

Just published an overview of the 19 positions in the No Deep Dives model portfolio

nodeepdives.substack.com/p/model-port...

FYI, from the lastest All-In Podcast

bsky.app/profile/jefk...

Chamath is pitching short $V $MA again, and stablecoins taking off.

Mentions a 300bp drag to the economy & high APRs ;)

@keubiko.bsky.social

Not a good call (by me) so far, but BARN-SWX is the clearest trough on trough (multiple + margins) set-up I'm aware of

I like $GTX, but I related thought I had was:

When 4 distressed funds own > 50% and want out, then why hasn't this company been taken private yet?

Millicom (Tigo) intends to consolidate listing of shares on NASDAQ U.S. by delisting SDRs from Nasdaq Stockholm and resumes shareholder remuneration Millicom (Tigo) intends to consolidate listing of shares on NASDAQ U.S. by delisting SDRs from Nasdaq Stockholm and resumes shareholder remuneration ...

This could lead to some selling pressure, which seems like excellent timing to launch a share buyback program.

www.globenewswire.com/news-release...

However, the stock was down 4% on this announcement. How come?

Likely because Millicom also announced they will stop dual listing and delist the SDRs (Swedish shares).
Most of the volume is in the SDRs and presumaby some Swedish institutions would hold the SDR, but not the US listing.

Millicom (Tigo) intends to consolidate listing of shares on NASDAQ U.S. by delisting SDRs from Nasdaq Stockholm and resumes shareholder remuneration Millicom (Tigo) intends to consolidate listing of shares on NASDAQ U.S. by delisting SDRs from Nasdaq Stockholm and resumes shareholder remuneration ...

Millicom (#TIGO) just announced:

- $150m buyback in 6 months (3.5%, or >7% annualized)
- special dividend of $1 in January (4% yield at $25), with the
intention of restarting a recurring dividend, to be approved at next AGM

I knew I recognized the name "Summit" from somewhere when I saw the headlines... but couldn't pinpoint it!

TT Electronics: Turnaround with Takeover Chatter Cheap valuation, merger arbitrage upside, and the chance of a higher bid make this a compelling watch

M&A Chatter in the UK:

Volex #VLX will make an offer on it's smaller peer TT Electronics #TTG

I wrote about it, but haven't pulled the trigger myself yet.

Curious to hear other opinions on the situation

nodeepdives.substack.com/p/tt-electro...

Digesting Millicom’s Tower Monetization Sale-leaseback announcement with SBAC leaves TIGO stock unmoved. Clarity on 2025 capital allocation is what investors need now.

Some thoughts on #TIGO after the sale-leaseback with #SBAC

nodeepdives.substack.com/p/digesting-...

(Are cashtags a thing here? $TIGO $SBAC)