Reading this (which I almost entirely agree with) made me realise I've changed my mind on one part of Rejoin - timing
In short, we can't devote enough resources to both Rejoin and Ukraine at the same time
The pro-European course is to liberate Ukraine first
⬇️
pascallth.substack.com/p/rejoin-whe...
Depleted U.S. precision munition stockpiles—and the 4–5 years required to replenish them—could coincide with a period of relatively peak Russian military power vis-à-vis NATO under a scenario in which a tenuous 2027 ceasefire in Ukraine frees Russian forces to reconstitute and redeploy.
Coming from the guy who attended Putin's military parade last year and wants to go again this year
FT exclusive: Russia is planning to halt the flow of Kazakh oil to Germany, threatening a refinery that supplies 90% of the petrol, kerosene and heating fuel to the German capital, its airport and surrounding region ft.trib.al/BK4ZrtW
Raging insanity.
If you were born in 2009, there will now be things it's illegal for you to do that it remains perfectly legal for someone born in 2008 to do. Forever, apparently.
Textbook second-class citizenship.
EVEN IF it's "in a good cause".
Reading this (which I almost entirely agree with) made me realise I've changed my mind on one part of Rejoin - timing
In short, we can't devote enough resources to both Rejoin and Ukraine at the same time
The pro-European course is to liberate Ukraine first
⬇️
pascallth.substack.com/p/rejoin-whe...
Hungary’s Prime Minister-elect Péter Magyar said today that his country must take Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into custody if he enters Hungarian territory while wanted by the International Criminal Court.
The guy who will be PM is another pro-Russia populist, so not particularly good
“When people saw what could be achieved with unmanned vehicles, we saw suggestions that wars could be fought without personnel ... It’s a nice idea, but to hold territory and to operate UAVs/UGVs, you need people physically there.”
My latest in @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/16/u...
Exit polls missed by a fair margin so unfortunately looks like an absolute majority
bsky.app/profile/euro...
Whether BSPOL make the 4% cut off will be worth watching
The saving grace could be the need for a coalition with centrists in order to govern with a majority, but we'll need to see how the final numbers shake out
Hope you enjoyed the Hungarian election result because based on the exit polls it's another pro-Moscow populist with a big lead in Bulgaria
Or 'we need to get closer in increments before we're ready to rejoin'. Well yes, the EU already has an answer to that and it's called the accession process
Ditto on the EU will only say yes if the UK is serious. If it's on the agenda in Brussels at all it will be because the UK has become serious by approving the idea in a referendum, with all the knock on consequences for narratives about 'will of the people'
I feel like the response would be rather less sceptical if the headline was 'Rejoin holds 20 point lead'
A lot of people sharing this and commenting as though the poll is 53-47, rather than 53-32
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
I don't think it tells us anything useful that the vaguest option ('closer relationship') commands the broadest support
As a focus group/polling strategy, it's unbeatable because it lets people imprint their own ideas
As a policy it's just rhetoric waiting for the details to be filled in
Embarrassing to release something that gets hacked almost instantly, but you should be rooting for the EU to get this right
Age verification online won't be going away so we need secure, public and accountable options rather than relying on private (American?) contracts
www.rte.ie/news/busines...
Should be said it's 53% with Don't Know included
Exclude DK and it's more like 62%
The polling singularity approaches
It feels a bit ironic given how often it seems that government officials complain that civil servants don't deliver what they ask for
And there we go
bsky.app/profile/fint...
Rather depends on what Ireland themselves would want to do with it. The deal is that the UK and Ireland would have to move together either way - do we know that Dublin wouldn't use this as an opportunity to push Schengen accession for both?
Sounds good, but realistically the mines are still there so I don't think many ships will risk the journey just yet
They screw up, leave us high and dry, and then blame us for the situation?
