Brookings just published my analysis of Taiwan politics after the first wave of recalls. The main point: the recalls have resolved some remaining political uncertainty, & all 3 political parties have some incentives to tack towards the middle.
www.brookings.edu/articles/tai...
Three big takeaways from Taiwan's recalls:
1. Even though the pro-recall movement was highly mobilized, and the KMT efforts to recall DPP legislators flopped, blue voter networks are not dead or apathetic. KMT voters can and will still mobilize for their party when need be.
Finally wrote something about the Taiwan People's Party. Read to the end to find out why the TPP is the biggest reason most KMT legislators are going to face recall votes on July 26:
www.kharistempleman.com/blog/the-cur...
Huge loss. Mala Htun did pathbreaking work on gender representation. This is terrible:
provost.unm.edu/news-and-art...
Former Nantou county magistrate sentenced for charges totally 656 years and 4 months, it's confirmed he will serve 21 years and 2 months
Map of ECMWF ensemble average precipitation over the Western U.S. through Tuesday morning. Half an inch or more of liquid equivalent (locally snow) is possible in the SoCal mountains, with a few tenths of rain elsewhere.
SoCal showers now likely Sun-Mon! Decent soaking (0.5+ in.) possible mtns; lighter (0.2-0.5 in.) elsewhere. This will be a cold/convective system (w/showers + t-storms). Enough to tamp down but not end fire season; t-storm downpours may risk fire zone debris flows. #CAwx #CAfire
I just got banned on Little Red Book 小红书, it was really easy. All you have to do is write the words “Tiananmen Square 1989” or even better “Taiwan is a Country” and you will break the glass hearts of 1.3 billion netizens.
Stefanik has clearly done her homework—in line with her earned reputation as a quick study, she has clearly put in the time and learned a lot about the UN
🧪⚒️ A M6 earthquake shook southwestern Taiwan earlier today, causing at least one building to collapse.
The faults in western Taiwan are mapped in detail - thrusts soling to a detachment at 5-6 km depth. So why did this earthquake occur several km deeper?
Read more on our blog:
Just saw the Presidential Alert and felt a rather long earthquake up here in Taipei. Initial reports indicate M6.4 with an epicenter in Chiayi County, somewhere around Tsengwen Reservoir, where I was just a few days ago... www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/E/EQ/EQ...
Algeria, one of Russia's top 5 arms customers, just shifted a major naval order to China. In line with a broader shift to China, which has already displaced Russia as the top arms exporter to Sub-Saharan Africa.
dailywrap.ca/algeria-pivo...
Taiwan's premier has said the government faced a crisis in day-to-day operations, including national security, because of large cuts to this year's budget proposed by opposition parties, who have cited a need to cut waste. www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-as...
During the recent election in Hyogo, supporters of Governor Saito spread defamatory information about a local politician who was investigating the governor. The politician was found dead yesterday from an apparent suicide, and he is still being defamed online.
news.goo.ne.jp/article/yomi...
December 20, 2024, in the Taiwan legislature: The DPP party caucus tries and fails to blockade the speaker's podium to prevent a final vote on three controversial bills.
Taiwan is on the brink of a constitutional crisis. I detail how it got so bad, so fast, here:
www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-...
E.g.: the constitutional court members serve 8-yr terms. So the court that struck down the KMT-TPP power-grab bills last summer was entirely appointed by Tsai Ing-wen and approved by a DPP LY. Not hard to see why the opposition now wants to paralyze the court unless they get nominees they like.
KMT and TPP legislators just passed bill raising income replacement rate to 80% for pensions of retired police officers and firefighters. DPP government officials & legislators opposed the move, explaining it will only increase generational conflicts and exhaust the pension fund early.
KMT/TPP passed a law to divert central government funds to local governments but allocated funds to cities/counties with more businesses instead of based on demographics (like areas with more elderly/children). TPP has again gone back on promises of supporting young families.
tinyurl.com/5d44ej5k
Taiwan has been on a path towards a constitutional crisis since last summer. One root problem is that its institutions aren't designed to handle divided goverment. A lot of the political pathologies of the Chen Shui-bian era have reappeared.
thediplomat.com/2025/01/taiw...
JOB OPENING: I'm seeking to hire a deputy director, program administrator to work with my fantastic team in GMF's Indo-Pacific program. This is primarily a managerial and admin/budget position in either Berlin or DC. Apply here: www.gmfus.org/about/careers
This coming Wednesday -- Hoover Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific will host Weitseng Chen for a talk on national security investment screening in Singapore vs Taiwan. Details here:
www.kharistempleman.com/blog/ptip-we...
JF Books, been around just a year, at DuPont Circle, the DC reincarnation of an influential intellectual hub back in Shanghai before being shut down there by the gov, is shaping up to be an important salon for ideas on China’s past and future.
After reading these two articles, I am even more skeptical about the usefulness of the concept of "far right" in Latin America - beyond describing a generic "reactionary" position.
Bridge Colby, soon to be OSD Policy chief, lays out views here that lead directly to the withdrawal of US forces from Korea. There should be no illusions about where this is heading.
english.hani.co.kr/arti/english...
Thinking for some reason about my teacher, Jonathan Spence. With the third anniversary of his passing (Christmas day) approaching, I would like to share this remembrance of him (and my favorite book of his) that I wrote for my @thechinaproject.bsky.social column thechinaproject.com/2022/01/26/t...
This short UDN editorial suggests that at least some people in the Blue camp are concerned about what happened with that vote. For those who don't read UDN regularly, these short op-eds on p.2 are where the paper's deep Blue paranoid id finds caustic expression.
udn.com/news/story/7...
Notable divergence btwn KMT and TPP on vote for Examination Yuan president Chou Hung-hsien. KMT opposes, TPP votes put him over the top, 59-53.
Committee nominee Ker Li-ling is opposed by both caucuses so fails to get confirmed; other 6 confirmed w/o opposition:
focustaiwan.tw/politics/202...
