Whose War Is This? – Riddle Russia Alexey Uvarov on Western politicians

The simple truth is that the West does not view Russia’s exiled opposition as a fully legitimate representative of the state or people. More importantly, the West has no interest in regime change there, fearing major instability in a nuclear state.
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/whose-war-is...

When Oil Does Not Outweigh Sanctions – Riddle Russia Vakhtang Partsvania on how the current energy crisis has exposed the differences between US and EU sanctions strategies

Here is a Vakhtang Partsvania's piece that detabes Inozemtsev's approach, highlighting the need for sanctions to remain predictable and unshaken by developments like Iran
ridl.io/when-oil-doe...

When Oil Outweighs Sanctions – Riddle Russia Vladislav Inozemtsev on how the war in Iran has exposed the vulnerabilities of sanctions strategy toward Russia

Given that the Trump administration has extended the waiver allowing purchases of Russian oil, it’s worth revisiting
this Vladislav Inozemtsev's take on the evolving nature of #sanctions — and the need for greater flexibility in how they’re designed and who they target.
ridl.io/when-oil-out...

Whose War Is This? – Riddle Russia Alexey Uvarov on Western politicians

The simple truth is that the West does not view Russia’s exiled opposition as a fully legitimate representative of the state or people. More importantly, the West has no interest in regime change there, fearing major instability in a nuclear state.
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/whose-war-is...

Prosecutor General’s Benefit Performance – Riddle Russia Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (April 13−17)

Civilian agencies (above all the political bloc inside the Presidential Administration) are using polling data that shows the decline of Putin's popularity to quietly alert the top leadership to the growing unpopularity of the current course.
ridl.io/prosecutor-g...

Prosecutor General’s Benefit Performance – Riddle Russia Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (April 13−17)

Civilian agencies (above all the political bloc inside the Presidential Administration) are using polling data that shows the decline of Putin's popularity to quietly alert the top leadership to the growing unpopularity of the current course.
ridl.io/prosecutor-g...

Enough Isn’t Enough – Riddle Russia Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (April 13−17)

There are simply not enough people to do all the necessary work for the first time in Russia’s modern history, and this structural deficit requires completely different thinking and new assumptions for policy parameters
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/enough-isn-t...

Enough Isn’t Enough – Riddle Russia Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (April 13−17)

There are simply not enough people to do all the necessary work for the first time in Russia’s modern history, and this structural deficit requires completely different thinking and new assumptions for policy parameters
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/enough-isn-t...

How Russian Parties Are Preparing for the State Duma Elections. Part 1: The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) – Riddle Russia Ksenia Smolyakova examines the current state of CPRF as it approaches the start of the campaign for State Duma

And here is an earlier piece on the state of Communist Party of Russia and its function amid Kremlin's pressure to downgrade it
ridl.io/how-russian-...

How Russian Parties Are Preparing for the State Duma Elections: United Russia – Riddle Russia Ksenia Smolyakova on the state United Russia finds itself in as it approaches the launch of the 2026 State Duma election campaign

"United Russia" shielded Russian federal, regional and local elites with immunity, perks & lobbying. Not anymore. Arrests rising, eroding value—even loyal elites unprotected. More purges ahead. This strains Moscow-regions ties despite inevitable 2026 Duma win.
ridl.io/how-russian-...

De-Orbanisation of Hungarian Foreign Policy vis-à-vis Moscow – Riddle Russia Denis Cenusa on what to expect from Péter Magyar’s Russia policy

Hungary's Orban is gone. Will Peter Magyar drastically change Hungary - Russia relationship?
Spoiler: don't expect any sudden moves. Meet the new kind of European pragmatism
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/de-orbanisat...

Pashinyan Visits Putin: Mutual Trolling – Riddle Russia Roman Chernikov on what Putin and Pashinyan actually said to each other during the Armenian prime minister’s latest trip to Moscow

Putin does not like Armenia's Pashinyan, he does not like that Armenia is seeking closer ties with the West and no longer wants Russia to be the ultimate partner.
But times have changed and Russia can't simply make Armenia do what Putin wants.
ridl.io/pashinyan-vi...

Rebound or Ricochet? – Riddle Russia Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (April 6−12)

Whatever gains come to Russia as commodity markets race to price in further escalation and now months of energy market disruption are likely to be undone by how Russia prioritizes spending - bleeding everything else expect for war spending
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/rebound-or-r...

Check out the analysis of Russia's key domestic political developments by Andrey Pertsev for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/crackdown-on...

For Russia, India is one of the few major non-Western partners left amid isolation. That is why Putin will keep these ties strong.
For more details check this Rajoli Siddharth piece for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/india-russia...
9/9

The US factor is big. Secondary sanctions — and even tariffs under the current administration — have temporarily dented Russian oil flows to India. New Delhi has pushed back on external interference in its energy security. But it comes with a cost.
8/9

Even trade routes are a problem. The Suez route dominates; the Chennai–Vladivostok corridor lacks momentum due to cost and China-related issues; the INSTC is hampered by secondary sanctions on Iran. Sanctions make alternative connectivity significantly harder
7/9

Defense partnership is also transforming. Russia’s share of Indian arms imports has fallen from 70% at its 2010s peak to around 40% now. India is diversifying suppliers. But it still relies on Russian systems for roughly 2/3 of its forces
6/9

Private-sector cooperation has suffered most. Major Indian firms largely pulled back due to sanctions risk, Western pressure, and Russian credit/payment problems. The economic relationship was never that deep anyway — military ties had always been the core
5/9

Yet non-energy trade remains strikingly weak. Bilateral turnover hit $68.7 billion in 2025 — but hydrocarbons accounted for the vast majority (~$57 billion). Indian exports to Russia stayed under $5 billion. Any diversification is still very limited
4/9

India "saved" Russian oil exports. India’s imports exploded from $2.3 billion in 2021 to $52.7 billion in 2024. Average 1.7 million barrels per day last year. Discounted barrels helped India secure energy while giving Russia a vital market lifeline
3/9

India refused to join Western sanctions on Russia after 2022 — just as it did after 2014. New Delhi called for a ceasefire and continued business as usual. Any attempts to make India break ties with Russia will most likely fail. It's not about Russia but India's sovereignty
2/9

Sanctions haven’t derailed #Russia - #India ties — but they’ve fundamentally changed their nature. Energy has become the dominant pillar, while military-technical cooperation and private-sector business have taken clear hits.
Thread 1/9

From Z-Blogger to Putin Critic? – Riddle Russia Fabian Burkhardt on what Ilya Remeslo’s Telegram channel can tell us about fractures within Russia’s elite

Recently, one of popular pro-Putin bloggers who for years pushed pure Kremlin narratives turned against Putin using no kind words.
Did he go nuts or did his sponsor change?
@faburkhardt.bsky.social gives an in depth analysis for the last 4 years of Remeslo’s TG posts
ridl.io/from-z-blogg...

Ella Pamfilova’s Record – Riddle Russia Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (March 30 — April 3)

On April 1st Putin stated:
«Competitive, democratic elections are an essential, irreplaceable, constitutional tool for forming a strong, capable government»
Though I am sure he actually believes he has strong societal support
ridl.io/ella-pamfilo...

Ella Pamfilova’s Record – Riddle Russia Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (March 30 — April 3)

On April 1st Putin stated:
«Competitive, democratic elections are an essential, irreplaceable, constitutional tool for forming a strong, capable government»
Though I am sure he actually believes he has strong societal support
ridl.io/ella-pamfilo...

If the West wants to significantly disrupt Putin's dictatorship, it would be smart to offer Russian tech specialist a way out of country, provided they give all the info they have about how the Russian repressive machine works from outside.
Brain drain works.
2/2

Russian authorities are trying to cut off Russians from "harmful foreign content" but instead they are regularly crashing the work of everything from banks to paid public toilets.
The repressive political will does not yet match the technical capacities.
1/2

From Z-Blogger to Putin Critic? – Riddle Russia Fabian Burkhardt on what Ilya Remeslo’s Telegram channel can tell us about fractures within Russia’s elite

Through the Telegram posts of Ilja Remeslo, a Z-blogger who has suddenly turned critical of Putin, @fa_burkhardt sheds more light on the workings of the Putin system than many analyses of Kremlin affairs. A must-read!
ridl.io/from-z-blogg...

How to Kill (or Tame) the Dragon? – Riddle Russia Alexey Uvarov on Power-Transition Scenarios and the Potential Role of Political Emigration in Post-Putin Russia

Is it realistic for Russian opposition in exile to count on coming back to Russia after Putin is gone and becoming a major political force? Do they even have a theoretical chance? Realistically, what sort of compromises might be required?
@Aivengo96
ridl.io/how-to-kill-...