Zvиздец Мангусту ‼️Обзор Сегодня – Константиновское направление. Ситуация там весьма динамично развивается. 1️⃣ Противник (российские войска) силами тактических групп (ТГр) «Бахмут» и «Дзержинск» из состава группиро...

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In strategic terms, the battle for Kostiantynivka may determine whether Russia can sustain an offensive toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area or exhaust itself beforehand.

If Russian troops eventually capture Kostiantynivka, pressure on Druzhkivka would increase and southern access routes toward Kramatorsk would improve, but any deeper advance would still require fresh reserves and renewed combat power.

Looking ahead, if Ukraine maintains current defensive cohesion, Russia may become bogged down in a prolonged attritional battle that consumes forces intended for a larger summer offensive.

Urban combat and repeated assaults are likely to further reduce momentum. Every additional week spent fighting for Kostiantynivka delays broader plans aimed at reaching the southern approaches to Kramatorsk.

At the present stage, the offensive appears tactically active but operationally slow. Russian troops are gaining ground only incrementally while suffering high losses in manpower and equipment.

However, they have not achieved a breakthrough into the city center, and Ukrainian defenses continue to hold key positions around Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillia, and Chasiv Yar, preventing wider maneuver and threatening Russian flanks.

Current attacks are focused from the south and southeast, where Russian units have made limited tactical progress on the outskirts and in contested urban fringe areas.

Mashovets Kostiantynivka Summary

Russia has entered a decisive phase of the Kostiantynivka campaign, concentrating major forces to seize Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka as a gateway toward Kramatorsk.

Might be a combination of Ceasefire Saturday and Monday, hence today we should see Sunday + Tuesday

Can be tracked at
foosint.github.io/sbs-stats/
by @foosint.eurosky.social

The best SBS day so far

Zvиздец Мангусту ‼️Обзор Сегодня – Запорожское направление. 1️⃣Напомню нашим читателям состав сил и средств (ориентировочный) противника (российские войска), действующих на данном направлении. Их основу составляют ...

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Overall, the next phase is expected to be a more focused but still constrained offensive effort, with no guarantee of rapid or decisive results.

The outcome will depend on whether ru command can achieve sufficient force concentration and coordination, which has been lacking so far. Meanwhile, AFU will likely continue defensive attrition and localized counterattacks, with opportunities to exploit the extended Russian flank along the Dnipro.

At the same time, Russia will try to hold its current positions along the Dnipro axis, but without prioritizing further advances there.

This will likely involve concentrating available forces, improving coordination with units advancing from the Huliaipole direction, and potentially committing additional reserves.

Russian forces are likely to shift from a broad, overstretched offensive to a more focused effort on the Orikhiv axis, aiming to achieve a localized breakthrough or partial encirclement.

Overall, the situation reflects an overextended Russian offensive with low operational coherence, resulting in slow progress, high attrition, and no decisive gains.

Ukrainian forces maintain an active defense, conducting local counterattacks, disrupting Russian advances, and exploiting exposed flanks, particularly near Lukianivske and along the river line.

Fighting is positional and attritional, with intense engagements in urban areas like Stepnohirsk and ongoing stalemate in Mala Tokmachka. Russian units rely heavily on small assault groups, which struggle to hold ground and sustain momentum under Ukrainian pressure.

Attacks toward Stepnohirsk, along the Dnipro, and in the direction of Mala Tokmachka–Orikhiv have not produced meaningful breakthroughs and are limited to small-scale infantry actions.

Mashovets Orikhiv summary

Russian forces are attempting to resume offensive operations across several axes, but their efforts remain fragmented and largely ineffective.

The Hero of our time - Cursed support man

As expected
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Zvиздец Мангусту 🔴Новоалександровское и Гуляйпольское направления 1️⃣Российская группировка войск (ГВ) «Восток» продолжает решать задачу по охвату с востока и юго-востока Ореховского района обороны ВСУ, в полосах сво...

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The overall trajectory suggests continued attritional fighting, with the initiative depending on whether Ukraine can scale its counteroffensive efforts on the northern flank.

However, if Ukrainian counterattacks remain limited, Russian forces will likely sustain gradual pressure on Huliaipole, aiming for incremental gains rather than rapid breakthroughs.

The key variable is Ukrainian action: if Ukrainian forces manage to break through toward Uspenivka–Temyrivka, this could threaten Russian flank cohesion and force them to divert forces from the main Huliaipole offensive, slowing or even halting it.

At the same time, on the Novоoleksandrivka axis, Russian forces will likely continue a defensive-stabilization role, relying on limited forces and localized counterattacks to contain Ukrainian pressure rather than launching major offensives.

Expectations

Russian command is expected to maintain its main focus on the Huliaipole axis, continuing attempts to break through toward the Orikhiv defensive area from the east and southeast. Reinforcements and reserves will likely be directed primarily to this sector to restore offensive momentum.