5/ The biggest unknown is what comes next. Beyond calls for the regime to fall, a detailed day after plan is missing. VP Vance said there was “no chance” that the US would be led into a drawn-out war, but the risk of a quagmire is real.

4/ This is an existential moment for the Iranian regime, and Tehran will respond. Beyond missile attacks across the Middle East, expect Tehran to activate its proxy network and any sleeper cells across the West. The retaliation could very well not be limited to the region.

3/ Washington launched this operation without a UN mandate or a formal coalition (like in Iraq), but allies including Canada and Australia have issued statements of support. The United States clearly remains the world's unmatched military power.

2/ Trump’s stated goal is for the Iranian people to “take over your government.” But regime change is unlikely to occur with an air campaign alone and the US faces real limitations on munitions & logistics in pursuit of this goal.

1/ This morning's strikes on Iran represent a significant escalation beyond both Operation Midnight Hammer in June and the January operation to remove Maduro, and demonstrates Trump increasing comfort level in using decisive military force in his second term.

Some thoughts on what’s next after the United States launched a major attack on Iran early this morning 🧵:

NSA detected phone call between foreign intelligence and a person close to Trump Whistleblower says that Tulsi Gabbard blocked agency from sharing report and delivered it to White House chief of staff

Very intriguing and troubling reporting from @catebrown.bsky.social at @theguardian.com.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

Three-Quarters of Greenlanders Don’t Want to Be Part of the U.S., Poll Shows Citizens noted their concerns about exchanging the Danish welfare system for American healthcare, elder care and education.

For some strange reason, POTUS does not seem to have sold Greenlanders on this whole annexation idea.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

A Long History of Betrayal Why Washington keeps encouraging foreign uprisings—and then walking away.

my new piece in FP: The US keeps telling people to rise up against their regimes, then leaving them to die. Hungary, Iraq, Syria...now Iran? I try to offer an explanation for this very consistent pattern. (gift link) foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/t...

A Long History of Betrayal Why Washington keeps encouraging foreign uprisings—and then walking away.

Highly recommend this great essay by @seva.bsky.social for your weekend reading: foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/t...

@foreignpolicy.com

Trump’s Greenland Threats Paper Over a Lack of Arctic Strategy U.S. efforts to counter Russia and China need allies, not targets.

Ahead of the meeting today bAhead of this afternoon's meeting at the White House on #Greenland, re-sharing my @ForeignPolicy piece which looks at what a productive US strategy towards the Arctic would entail: foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/08/t...

No, China Isn’t Going to Take Over Greenland Trump’s absurd justification for potential U.S. action is blatantly false.

Good piece by @beijingpalmer.bsky.social on the false claims that we need Greenland to protect against China: foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/13/g...

The Purged Donald Trump’s destruction of the civil service is a tragedy not just for the roughly 300,000 workers who have been discarded, but for an entire nation.

Read Frank Foer's amazing essay on the civil servants we have lost

www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...

Thanks, Jacob!

Trump’s Greenland Threats Paper Over a Lack of Arctic Strategy U.S. efforts to counter Russia and China need allies, not targets.

"Statements about seizing territory will not bring Canada, Denmark, and #Greenland closer to the United States; if anything, it will push them further away."

Great work by @ibayoumi.bsky.social in @foreignpolicy.com.

Trump’s Greenland Threats Paper Over a Lack of Arctic Strategy U.S. efforts to counter Russia and China need allies, not targets.

The United States lacks a coherent strategy for the Arctic region, and attempting to take control of Greenland is not a viable substitute for one.

Trump’s Greenland Threats Paper Over a Lack of Arctic Strategy U.S. efforts to counter Russia and China need allies, not targets.

In @foreignpolicy.com, I argue that US actions towards Greenland disguise a lack of strategy towards the Arctic: foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/08/t....

Thanks to @beijingpalmer.bsky.social as always!

ANALYSIS | With Trump's Venezuela move and Greenland threats, are Canadians vulnerable? | CBC News U.S. President Donald Trump's increasingly bellicose stance on taking over Greenland, on the heels of capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, have combined to trigger questions about what the W...

I talked with CBC about US actions towards Greenland and what this means for Canada: www.cbc.ca/news/world/t...

How could Donald Trump 'take' Greenland? The White House says it is considering a range of options to acquire the island, including deploying the military.

I shared my thoughts #Greenland to the BBC here: www.bbc.com/news/article...

the wolf wants to see the three little pigs succeed

“Mr. Trump’s announcement of a “blockade” caught senior officials at the Pentagon and at Southern Command in Florida by surprise. On Wednesday, they scrambled to figure out the U.S. military’s role in the action, U.S. officials said.”

As Solar Geoengineering Enters its Startup Phase, Governments Must Address Emerging Security Risks Without regulation, the dangers of solar radiation modification will become magnified and the security risks more unchecked.

For my latest piece in @justsecurity.org, Scott Moore and I unpack what the startup phase of #geoengineering means for government regulations and national security: www.justsecurity.org/125056/solar...

As Solar Geoengineering Enters its Startup Phase, Governments Must Address Emerging Security Risks Without regulation, the dangers of solar radiation modification will become magnified and the security risks more unchecked.

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is now a commercial industry, with startups raising millions to artificially cool the planet.

But with development outpacing regulation, countries must act now to create governance frameworks to address SRM’s risks, write Scott Moore and Imran Bayoumi:

A Victorious Mamdani Will Be Forced Onto the International Stage New York’s global profile gives it a powerful role in subnational diplomacy.

"Mamdani will be forced to pay attention to issues abroad no matter how tightly he tries to keep his focus domestic."

Really interesting insights from @ibayoumi.bsky.social in @foreignpolicy.com, looking at Zohran Mamdani's global role and his possible priorities.

A Victorious Mamdani Will Be Forced Onto the International Stage New York’s global profile gives it a powerful role in subnational diplomacy.

For @foreignpolicy.com, I unpack how @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social will approach New York's role on the international stage: foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/05/z...

Thanks to @beijingpalmer.bsky.social as always!

Facing the threat of US strikes, Maduro has requested Russia’s help. He shouldn’t expect much. Focused on its war against Ukraine and struggling with sanctions, the Kremlin is unlikely to provide significant help to the Maduro regime.

Following Maduro's request to #Russia for aid,
@shelbyjmag.bsky.social and I unpack what assistance #Venezuela might actually receive (spoiler: not much!) for the
@atlanticcouncil.bsky.social: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

Policing the Pacific: How China Expands Influence Where the US Looks for Allies China’s policing influence in the Pacific is reshaping regional power. Discover how the U.S. can counter Beijing’s reach through local partnerships and trust-building.

For The Irregular Warfare Initiative I write about how the PRC uses police-police cooperation to boost its presence in the South Pacific and how the US can better engage: irregularwarfare.org/uncategorize...

so I gather this is a lot of people's first middle east cease fire.

Opinion | What it will cost Canada to win back U.S. friendship To mend ties with the U.S., Prime Minister Carney must put Canada on a path to meet NATO commitments.

Trump may think that the United States doesn’t “need anything” from Canada, but the U.S. in fact relies on Canada for a variety of products, writes Greg Pollock and @ibayoumi.bsky.social write. wapo.st/4jA9ttu

Opinion | Canada's prime minister nailed his meeting with Trump. Now comes the hard part. At the Oval Office meeting on Tuesday, some of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s more intangible qualities were on display.

Pleased to have been asked by @msnbc.com to share some thoughts on the Trump - Carney meeting and the future of bilateral relations between the two countries: www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

#cdnpoli