Becerra continues to look like the main short-term beneficiary of Swalwell’s exit from the CA-Guv race. Will be interesting to see how he tries to seize the momentum & how the other Ds try to slow his roll.
Dems: We're confident that more Dems are going to vote but we can't figure out a way to ensure partisan polarization in this non-candidate ballot measure.
Trump:
Keep an eye out on the bellwether of Loudoun tomorrow
Tends to report first among the big counties
If Yes is winning it around 60%-40%, on track for passing
If it is closer around Yes 55%-45%, then No could pull it out
50%-50% result would indicate No victory
When Rahm opposes military aid to Israel.....
Former US Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra at a gubernatorial forum hosted by the California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in Sacramento on April 14, 2026. Photo by Miguel Gutierrez Jr., CalMatters . HED: Commentary - With Eric Swalwell’s scandalous implosion, Xavier Becerra surges in race for California governor
Opinion | The Democratic Party released its latest poll on Monday, revealing that while Republicans Steve Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco still lead, Xavier Becerra shot up from 4% to 13%, topping all the Democrats. cal.news/3OgrDHv
📝 Dan Walters
📷️ Miguel Gutierrez Jr.
Within a locality, need to know where vote is coming from
Some have mix of red and blue areas
Also need to understand if early vote, mail, or Election Day is in
NYT will not necessarily distinguish
Need to go directly to Department of Elections for a county
2/4
My benchmark vote will break down
Early Voting (in-person early vote): Lean Yes
Election Day: Lean No
Mailed Absentee: Strong Yes
Provisional (mainly same-day registration): Lean Yes
Post-Election: Strong Yes
No will need good Election Day to overcome Yes EV edge
3/4
L2 Political Now: "VA Voted Early or Absentee Redistricting Special as of 4/20/26 // 1,337,999 Modeled Party ID: Democratic 54.1% / Republican 39.8% / Non-Partisan 6%"
L2 Political: "VA Voted Early or Absentee as of 11/4/25 // 1,426,604 Modeled Party ID: Democratic 55.6% / Republican 38% / Non-Partisan 6.3%"
L2 Political's VA modeled early vote Party ID estimate now: "Democratic 54.1%/Republican 39.8%/Non-Partisan 6%"
Compare to 11/4/25: "Modeled Party ID: Democratic 55.6%/Republican 38%/Non-Partisan 6.3%"
So...Dems are 1.5 pts lower now; Rs are 1.8 pts higher now
bluevirginia.us/2026/04/new-...
No formal prediction, but some observations about Virginia
Only high quality polls both had Yes up +5%
Early vote is redder by 2-3% than 2025
Vibes point to a closer race
But tough national environment for GOP
All politics is national now so Yes should pull it
What I would hypothesize that you can see here is greatly a *sorting* of Americans by trust
The Democratic Party used to have a lot more cranks who had some weird ideas about science, and the Republican Party used to have a lot more normies who think science is great
And they swapped parties
"Because they're the one party dedicated to fighting cancel culture, which stops me from getting invited to Martha's Vineyard parties, and to protecting the privacy of people in certain files, which stops you from knowing I went to other parties on another island."
She is awful and should be fired but man that is three women out of the Cabinet and not a single guy
So this didn't happen, not a great sign for the Yes campaign, but they are still ultimately favored. I'd ballpark this as a 3-in-4 chance they win. The odds of No winning are getting two coins and having them both land on the same side.
🚨VIRGINIA REDISTRICTING REFERENDUM ELECTION🚨
How to Vote: YES
Election Date: 🗓️THIS TUESDAY, APRIL 21ST🗓️
Area: STATEWIDE
Notes: Early voting is over. All that is left is Election Day. Chaz Nuttycombe (who nailed his VA 2025 predictions) believes that YES could lose. We need every last vote!
Pretty impressive statistic from yesterday’s early voting
Arlington and Loudoun had biggest single day of early voting ever
That’s including Presidential elections
Could be indication of potentially bigger upside of Election Day votes in blue parts of Virginia
Maybe the biggest question -- can "No" win over a decent chunk of Trump disapprovers?
102 years ago, the Democratic Party took 103 ballots to pick a nonentity as presidential nominee and it refused to condemn the Ku Klux Klan. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_De...
Remember that Virginia went for Spanberger by 15, Jones by 7, and Harris by 6. "No" has to win some voters who haven't backed many R's in Trump era.
Think this translates roughly 8K early voters today in PWC
More than same day in 2025
There were 5 fewer days of satellites opened in PWC compared to last year
So slightly less early votes overall
We’ll see if that is made up on Election Day
Final Fairfax numbers today
Almost matched 2025
Expect good turnout on Tuesday across Virginia too!
Loudoun cast 7832 early votes today, roughly 112% of last year and a new single-day record for EV
Previous total record was the final day of 2024 at 7599
Total IPEV is 86% of 2025; not bad considering it went from 12 days of satellites to 5
Eday is a big open question
Sam Shirazi tweet responding to RK Udeshi on 14,000 voters "so far in Fairfax County today" (as of a couple hours ago)
"Looks like a big day of early voting in Virginia. Hearing good turnout in rest of Virginia including in Loudoun" - @samshirazi.bsky.social bluevirginia.us/2026/04/phot...
To understand why the USA is where it is today, all you need to do is see that Trump cannot tolerate even the mildest, insightful criticism from the Pope, but Trump will allow Putin to humiliate him deeply and constantly, while still craving Putin’s approval.
With the Final Day of Early Voting TODAY and the Election on Tuesday, @samshirazi.bsky.social Looks at “Shy Yes Voters vs. Skeptical No Independents”; "I don’t know if the Republicans’ strategy of making this a referendum on Spanberger necessarily is going to work" bluevirginia.us/2026/04/with...
A 50-50 Senate where Murkowski votes no and Fetterman votes yes and Vance breaks the tie.
Shaping up to be big final day of early voting tomorrow in Virginia
118K was the number last year on same day
Quite possible there is more this year
Would be a record for a state election if it happens
Several officials told me that Patel’s drinking has been a recurring source of concern across the government. They said that he is known to drink to the point of obvious intoxication, in many cases at the private club Ned’s in Washington, D.C., while in the presence of White House and other administration staff. He is also known to drink to excess at the Poodle Room, in Las Vegas, where he frequently spends parts of his weekends. Early in his tenure, meetings and briefings had to be rescheduled for later in the day as a result of his alcohol-fueled nights, six current and former officials and others familiar with Patel’s schedule told me. On multiple occasions in the past year, members of his security detail had difficulty waking Patel because he was seemingly intoxicated, according to information supplied to Justice Department and White House officials. A request for “breaching equipment”—normally used by SWAT and hostage-rescue teams to quickly gain entry into buildings—was made last year because Patel had been unreachable behind locked doors, according to multiple people familiar with the request.
Depriving Trump of high quality underlings by stigmatizing association with him has been very successful www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
Tweet from Cenk Uygur
Nothing good is going to come out of this reframing of the political spectrum.
Also: eternal shame on anyone who fell for his blindingly obvious lies on the subject
(I'm ultimately skeptical this has more of a political effect than other Trump controversies -- his hardcore supporters stick with him, while swing voters have yet another reason to dislike him).
While popes have criticized GOP presidents in the past, they have usually been harsher on Dems for abortion, same-sex marriage, etc.