Only if they’re doing options or taking inordinate risk. Those are hold stocks.

1. Trading is NOT investing; you invest in #SPY or #MA and trade #TSLA & #UAL
2. If you’re willing to hold through a drop, you should be willing to hold through a rise (risk reward balance)
3. PE, PE Fwd, PEG are great for estab. stocks but not growth stocks
4. Options is a COMPLETELY diff market

Tom Lee is right; buy and hold this dip or any small pullbacks early next week but you should have already been in. $1BN worth of institution buys of $SPY underlying and $1.2BN worth of positive options (calls or puts sold) yesterday should tell you what’s happening.

Everyone who sold pulled forward their unrealized gains, every hedge fund who is underperforming the $SPX (majority) bought yesterday and will be holding, and with the dovish comments from Goolsbee/Williams next week should be solid.

If we avoid a government shutdown, we are set for the rally through end of year. Any shakeout on Monday will be over by Tuesday if at all.

Your biggest opportunity was the eod on Powell day when that spot $VIX was way over the VIX futures.

I hope you bought the dip. According to Fundstrat, when the #VIX spikes at the level it did, 3/4 times the market recovers within a wk & 4/4 times it recovers within a mo.

Not your financial advice but with a maj of funds not beating the S&P this year, they will buy this dip and so should you.

FOMC will be helpful tomorrow. If it’s a hawkish pause, the market priced it in and VIX will drop pushing moderate gains. If we have a dovish or neutral pause, VIX drops and stocks have a surprise tailwin.

Either way I think Santa Claus rally starts tomorrow. As #NVDA held the 128, expect a rise

#NVDA 128 probably going to hold today. If you don’t have a position in it right about now is when you start your first tranche.

This is the week go long. Too much institution (hedge funds and mutual funds) cash still on the sidelines about to come in; most have underperformed the market this year so they will come in. Santa Rally is on through end of year. Be careful of new year sell off though

Current watchlist as of 11Dec24:
NEW: #SRE
NEW: #ELF
#NVDA
#META
#MU
#CDNS
#PANW
#LULU
#MPWR
#NOW
#JPM
#AMZN
#ULTA

Removed:
#UBER
#REGN
#LLY

Anytime between tomorrow and #FOMC to start or add to #NVDA #JPM #MS #ORCL #DELL $CRM and even #GEV would be good.

Remember to take some off the table before the start of the year rebalancing and correction mid Jan.

#AVGO more probable than not to drop a bit after earnings. Do not fear but buy the drip 3 days after to add to the position and watch what happens by or just after Christmas.

Similar to #ORCL situation.

#LEN #DHI and other home builders (including #SWK #HD #BLDR) will need time to recover but will hit all time highs early next year. Don’t expect to get much from Santa rally but be patient.

#LLY is healthy but needs the health care sector to recover from this drum beat down.

First signs of #SOX recovery may start tomorrow. After FOMC, #NVDA #TSM and other semis should begin the ride up through end of year.

Try to ride the China recovery game (artificially holding currency low and promising demand stimulus) through #EL #LULU #ELF. Avoid #BABA for now.

If you went long #ORCL before earnings hold tight. DCA 170 to 155. This is a gift and high expectations meeting decent not awesome earnings will shake out the weak hands. 2025 will be a banner year for #DELL #HPE as well as #ORCL. Even #SMCI may recover from its troubles.

Assuming beta is about 1.5-1 you have a few options:
1. Double down; keep your time frame long and don’t be discouraged
2. Buy a deep in the money strangle 16-24 months out and prepare to drop one side if it goes wrong
3. Do nothing; there may be better alpha opps while you’re staring at this one

You’re asking the wrong question. It’s how much did sentiment change? PEG? Weekly moving averages? KST trend deviation? What’s going on in the news; any strategic threat (check Porters 5Ps at the min)?

Stock price movement is a poor way to make decisions.

While there is a concentration of inflation in food, the real killer remains shelter and insurance. We are 5-8MM single family homes short which means prices go up regardless of mortgage rates. Insurance continues up esp on cars due to sophisticated cars and an increase in youth acc rates.

Anyone who wants to bet money outside of the US is going to take a lot of opp cost. It’s insane not to go long on US equities during what should be a banner first half of 2025.

There is now way Europe and Asia will catch up with the state of the Chinese economy. Don’t believe me? Ask #VW

A lot of angst due to #CPI and #PPI this week. Will not change Fed cut for Dec but maybe their commentary.

After this week’s consolidation (if there is one) we are roaring up through year end. Don’t miss it and prepare for the first trading day of next year drop.

Buy #ORCL before earnings tomorrow after markets and buy the dip if it goes south 3 days after. #AVGO always drops on earnings and is a great buy after.

#LULU and #ULTA still looking good through Q1-2 next year.

#UNH has an irrational drop; pick up as you can.

#DELL cons but will break out.

I got tired of listening to far right posts. Being a moderate, I needed a place to rest my eyes for a few hours.

#LYFT #UBER

#Waymo is a real threat. Compound them with #TSLA FSD along with Elon’s plans with the Trump admin…

#UBER and #LYFT either need a #GOOG breakup and buy #Waymo or expand beyond trans. and deliv. This is an existential threat.

I’m pulling $UBER and warning all from holding it LT.

Non-farm payrolls tomorrow:
Overall expectation - 214k

JPM scenarios for S&P:
230-300k: 25-100bp rise
200-230k: 50-75bp rise

GS scenarios for S&P:
275k+: 100bp+ drop
235-275k: 50-100bp drop
200-235k: +/- 50bp rise or drop
150-200k: 50-100bp rise
100-150k: 0-100bp rise
<100k: 0-50bp drop

#ULTA beats earnings confirming the bear to bull transition; Buffet should have kept it

Q3 EPS: $5.14 vs $4.52
Rev: $2.53B vs $2.49B

Guide:
FY2024 EPS: $23.20-$23.75 vs $23.13
FY2024 rev: $11.1-11.2B vs $11.171B

#LULU earnings good; 1BN more buybacks; looks like US rev bottom is here!!!

EPS: $2.87 vs $2.71
Rev: $2.4B vs $2.36B

Guide:
Q4 2025 EPS: $5.56-$5.64 vs $5.70
Q4 2025 rev: $3.475-3.51B vs $3.5B Est
FY2025 EPS: $14.08-$14.16 vs $14.12
FY2025 rev: $10.45-10.49B vs $10.42B

No. Plenty of more moderates out there to unite the centrists and push out the extremists from both ends. Putting someone from the left only will invite more cycles of far right candidates who win. Call it yin and yang.

Instead of staring at $NVDA $TSLA $MSTR :

$LEN : this drop doesn’t jive with the “fed put” and jobs

$PEP : RFK’s and GLP-1 impacts are overdone for this cheap stock; should bounce soon

$AWK : Healthy utility getting to a decent price zone

If you’re still dead set on the AI trade look at $DELL

Also please remember the timing of when most institutions and funds need to harvest losses for tax purposes; the ones to be sold are the losers going to the end of the year so they will just get worse come 2 Jan 25.

A thought on the “Santa Rally:”

Typically the rise starts the end of the 2nd week or beginning of the 3rd week of Dec with the first two weeks having some chop.

Don’t be surprised if $SPY $QQQ $NVDA $TSLA $DIA $IGV have pullbacks until then.