That will increase the risks of further violations. Instead, a “principled and pragmatic” approach to Beijing requires the resolve to preserve clear and consistent positions on human rights and economic security, without slipping into self-censorship or strategic ambiguity.
Canadian PM Mark Carney’s China policy is facing its first tests. In a post on my Strategic Narratives Substack, @vinanadjibulla.bsky.social argues that politicians’ responses to debates about forced labour in China reveal a shift from clarity to excessive caution.
The bigger picture: China is building a parallel information order. AI chatbots, state broadcasters, free content deals, elite capture, diplomatic pressure. Every link in the news chain is a target. Democracies need to wake up to what’s happening — and push back. 10/10
Full RSF Propaganda Monitor:
The Caribbean — Grenada, Jamaica, Guyana — is now swimming in Chinese propaganda, largely without scrutiny. Beijing goes where Western attention doesn’t. That’s always been the plan. 9/10
Nearly 90% of Solomon Islands government communication officials have taken at least one official trip to China since 2019. That’s not a coincidence. That’s a strategy. Expand presence. Entice elites. Entrench influence. Deepen dependence. 8/10
In the Solomon Islands, China got caught directly pressuring newspapers in 2024. So it shifted tactics: free content, free footage, free broadcast signals from CCTV+. A Chinese diplomat once told a newsroom: “stop publishing articles on Taiwan’s President.” Free content. Expensive consequences. 7/10
CGTN — the Party’s 65-language global broadcaster — operates under daily directives from the CCP Propaganda Department: what to cover, what to bury, on pain of sanctions. This is not journalism. It’s the Party speaking in 65 languages simultaneously. 6/10
Beijing locked down the AI sector in 2023, banning content that could “incite subversion” or “harm the country’s image.” The result: chatbots that suppress real-time scandals. When kids were poisoned in 2025, DeepSeek’s response was: “the government’s priority is to protect people’s lives.” 5/10
RSF asked the chatbots about RSF itself. Ernie’s verdict: “a Western political instrument disguised as a defender of press freedom.” If you want to know what the Party thinks of press freedom, there it is. 4/10
When asked about Uyghur detention camps, Qwen called reports “baseless speculation” & used the Party’s own term—“education and vocational training centres.” Ernie called human rights investigations “rumours manufactured by forces hostile against China.” Laundered propaganda, delivered at scale. 3/10
First: Chinese AI chatbots are now propaganda tools. RSF tested DeepSeek, Baidu’s Ernie, and Alibaba’s Qwen. All three strictly align with Beijing’s official narratives — on Xinjiang, Taiwan, press freedom, everything. This isn’t a bug; it’s a compliance feature. 2/10
RSF just launched season 2 of its Propaganda Monitor — this time on China. Having spent 1,019 days in a CCP cell, I know something about how Beijing controls information. The findings are important. 🧵👇 1/10
New post on the visit's real scorecard. michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/germanys-c...
Germany’s chancellor rejected Beijing's FTA push in February, then volunteered it himself in parliament 4 weeks later. Revived “comprehensive strategic partnership” diplomatic language. Declined to call China a "systemic rival". The structural problem isn't Merz. It's the system he governs.
Hope to see you there. Ping me if you plan to attend and we could at least partake in the “dynamic networking in curated spaces designed for collaboration” and have some “insightful conversations shaping the future of business in Canada.” Or less ambitiously, just catch up over a coffee or a beer…
Looking forward to the Future of Business Summit April 20-21, where I’ll be one of the “high-profile speakers driving national and global change.” Billed as “Canada’s premier gathering of visionaries, innovators & decision-makers shaping our economic future." I’ll do my best to live up to the hype.
4️⃣ Develop credible deterrent tools spanning diplomatic, economic, and legal measures to deny opportunities and punish violations. 6/6
3️⃣ Strengthen legal and normative instruments to create accountability mechanisms and international pressure. 5/6
2️⃣ Build institutional capacity to recognize threats, designate cases, and coordinate responses across government departments. 4/6
1️⃣ Prioritize resolving ongoing cases through diplomatic engagement, consular protection, and comprehensive victim support. 3/6
Democratic governments are increasingly faced with authoritarian regimes that weaponize human lives to extract political concessions, creating acute policy dilemmas between humanitarian imperatives and strategic interests. We propose a four-pillar framework that balances them for maximum impact: 2/6
State hostage-taking has evolved from isolated diplomatic incidents into a systematic tool of coercion. @vinanadjibulla.bsky.social and I have first-hand experience! In a new journal article, we argue that responses have proven insufficient to deter arbitrary detention when used for coercion 🧵1/6
More telling: Merz rejected Beijing's FTA push during the visit. Then volunteered it himself in parliament four weeks later. The Franco-German working group on China policy stalled. German FDI in China hit a 4-year high in 2025—while Merz was campaigning on de-risking. Full analysis on Substack. 4/4
China has been using high-profile visits to dress up routine procurement as diplomatic concessions for years. Merz called it proof the trip was "worthwhile." Beijing couldn't have scripted it better. 3/4
The headline outcome — Airbus selling "up to 120 aircraft" — was announced by a head of government, not Airbus, with no types, no airlines, no timeline, no signed deal. Six weeks later: nothing. 2/4
German Chancellor Merz's Beijing visit: the optics were China's, the substance was thin, and the weeks since have made the picture worse. A thread on what actually happened and what it tells us about where German China policy is heading. 🧵1/4
Could China be the beneficiary of Trump tearing up world order? If you’ll be in London on March 30, please join me for a Frontline Club panel discussion with Robin Brant, Olivia Cheung and @alexgabuev.bsky.social on what tectonic shifts in geopolitics mean for the CCP’s global influence.
Turning to China to hedge against Trump carries serious risks. The CCP playbook runs from inducements to dependency, to demands for deference, to coercion. Stay out of the doom-loop. That and more in my testimony to Canada’s House of Commons Committee on Trade, now online: bit.ly/40S1fWW
Carney’s intensive Indo-Pacific diplomacy indicates he’s serious about turning his vision into reality. His ideas on variable-geometry networks & coalitions are necessary & sensible. To understand the opportunities and challenges they’ll encounter, read my latest for @foreignpolicy.com magazine 3/3
