Now want referendum result by General Assembly districts

Hopefully @statenavigate.org has us covered

Still expect Dems to pickup at least 2 in State Senate bc wasn’t up in 2025

SD-27 in NOVA, SD-12 in Chesterfield, and SD-24 in Hampton Roads most at risk

House could go a lot of ways and really depends on national environment at the time

But Dems will keep majority

Observations held up pretty well

Honestly Virginia GOP did better than expected

2025 was probably low point

Will make 2027 General Assembly races more interesting

Still expect Dems to maintain majorities

But Governor midterms can be challenging as Glenn Youngkjn found out

Should note for voting rights restoration, it is when someone is released from prison

Virginia Supreme Court has about a month to rule

Congressional filing deadline is May 26

Expecting a ruling before then

Candidates need to know if they are running in old or new districts

I’m guessing they used time during referendum to think about issue

@samshirazi.bsky.social will join us Friday as well! We will talk about the YES campaign and the win!

a cartoon character says we 've tried nothing and were all out of ideas ALT: a cartoon character says we 've tried nothing and were all out of ideas

Republicans trying to compete in Northern Virginia

Reminder Virginia has 3 more referendums on the November ballot

Adding language to Virginia constitution:

- Protect right to abortion

- Remove ban on Same Sex marriage

- Restore voting rights to those convicted of felonies once they serve their sentence

Expect all 3 to pass

The polarization is not good for Virginia

All parts of the Commonwealth are connected

From the hallowed grounds of Arlington National Cemetery to the hills of Appalachia

From the shores of the Chesapeake to the bends of the Shenandoah

Let us work to come together

Although interesting Cline said “current sixth district”

Republicans operating under assumption legal challenges will work apparently

Virginia GOP incumbents are in tough spot

But seats might be competitive in 2030 and will be redrawn after that

Could go down with ship this year

Then run again in more favorable environment

Cline, McGuire, and Kiggans could do that

Wittman could run for Governor in 2029

Attorney General Jay Jones says his office will appeal

Rural GOP turnout was impressive, especially in SWVa and the Shenandoah Valley. But turnout will only get you so far in a state that leans D. They needed to persuade a lot of Harris voters. That didn't happen.

They will want to rule

The Virginia GOP legal challenges continue

Looks like the same judge in Tazewell county that ruled for GOP before continues to rule for GOP

Ultimately Virginia Supreme Court will make final call on state legal issues

Chesapeake was also a surprise

Went from Youngkin +6% to Yes +1.5%

Shows Federal Fallout was not just in NOVA

Also affected Hampton Roads and continues to weigh down Virginia GOP

Basically this was rerun of 2021 Governor race

Virginia GOP got the rural turnout they needed

But Dems were able to maintain their margins in NOVA and other suburbs

They won Chesterfield by 6.5% in Richmond area

This was a county Youngkin won by 3.5%

Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Redistricting Referendum April 2026 - Blue Virginia Here are a few “winners” and “losers” that I believe are worth highlighting from Tuesday’s redistricting referendum, which the YES campaign won by around 3 points. Note that this list isn’t even close...

Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Redistricting Referendum April 2026 bluevirginia.us/2026/04/poli...

Virginia GOP did good job getting their voters out

But they were digging out of a 15% hole in the Governor’s race

Made up a lot of that with turnout and persuasion

But ultimately couldn’t get margins they needed in the blue parts of Virginia

Video: After Passage of Redistricting Amendment, Del. @guzman4virginia.bsky.social Announces Campaign for Congress in the New VA-07; "An immigrant, mom, union member, and social worker who is ready to fight back against Trump’s attacks on her community" bluevirginia.us/2026/04/vide...

“Virginia Dems tapping the roof of NOVA

This baby can handle anything”

But there is a risk of getting too dependent on one part of Virginia

A swing away for whatever reason could lead to another 2021

Something to keep in mind if political winds shift by 2029

Referendum Passes and Federal Fallout Continues Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · April 22 · 17m

New Federal Fallout pod on the Federal Fallout in the redistricting referendum

Virginia GOP kept it close and got out their voters

But weren’t able to avoid continued backlash in NOVA at what’s going on in DC

Virginia Dems get the W but angered rural areas

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

Delegate Elizabeth Guzman makes it official

She launches her campaign for the new VA-7 the day after the referendum passes

Joins crowded primary with former Virginia First Lady, State Senator, 2 other Delegates, and former government officials

No doing a little better with persuasion could have swung the election

Basically no way of knowing that based just on early vote

It did show that rural areas were more likely to come out than last year

So good at showing turnout, but not persuasion

After many hot takes, Yes won early vote 57%-43%

Basically what the modeling was showing

No won Election Day, but not by enough

Early vote analysis showed it would be close election and has its place

At the same time, impossible to use early vote to predict exact outcome

With the understanding that these turnout numbers aren't final (and the late votes will be more from D areas)

Rs had a very clear turnout edge relative to 2025 - no surprise bc R turnout sucked in 2025

Rs had a milder turnout edge compared to 2024, but it still wasn't enough

Ok last post

Good reminder that Black, Asian, and Hispanic voters big part of Virginia Dem coalition

Another election showing a shift from 2024

Also reason why Yes won

Also mailers invoking Jim Crow for No didn’t work and probably backfired

Thanks!

Thanks!

Going to log off soon

Thanks everyone for the positive engagement

There is a lot of polarization right now and trying not to add to it

My goal is to provide information without much spin

Hopefully people found it help