An easy step people could think about is reducing warming aviation contrail effects above the Atlantic / Greenland, which we know can be done at very low cost by just tweaking a minority of flight paths
Worrying armchair learning about Gulf LNG production: there's almost nowhere to store it; it's hard to turn off; and it's slow to turn back on
We have pipped them on population though very similar. I think they're slightly ahead on GDP per capita, but only slightly, with UK median household income actually higher. They live a bit longer but are a bit less happy...
It's been a busy season of budget analysis for me. I will now be a lot quieter for a while: listening, reading, fact-finding, pondering. Happy holidays!
Yeah, though my point about size was that it can be easier to have very high GDP/head if you are a small population: you only need one or two successful niches - but that doesn't go as far with 10x as many people
We are richer than ever and there are only two countries that are both as rich per person and as populous as the UK: the US and Germany. While America might be richer, we live longer and equally happy lives – and even the safest US state has a higher homicide rate than London.
Don't Panic: Britain is not broken. The UK can do better, but we shouldn't be too gloomy about things. If you look at the stats, there's a lot to be happy with (including how happy we are): adamcorlett.com/2025/11/30/d...
There is almost no trace of the Budget on bbc.co.uk/news – presumably HMT will count that as a win
The number of children in poverty has probably hit new record highs this year, but will be significantly cut in 2026-27. New government projections: www.gov.uk/government/p...
I think people should be more confident than before the Budget, even if still suspicious
bsky.app/profile/adam...
Hopefully a 1p Fuel Duty rise in September is a good way to break the taboo, and there's no Budget before then. It is less of a fiscal fiction than it has been, but we'll see... And maybe the approach of small, quarterly, automatic increases could be continued beyond 2026-27, instead of annual jumps
The 'High Value Council Tax Surcharge' is a big step to making annual property tax more proportional to value. Most homes already pay higher rates than mansions will. Unlike Council Tax it will be based on recent values, with five-yearly revaluation(?), and will be paid by owners not occupiers.
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
💥 Govt says fuel duty to *go up* from next September.
In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze.
This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.
To be optimistic, I don't think this year's £200 VED rise for EVs has deterred buyers?
It sounds like this Budget won't cut VAT on public EV charging, but will launch a review that might lead to doing it in Budget 2026
Today I learned that NOx pollution from vehicles (esp. old diesels) and boilers interferes with insect scent. Yet another reason to electrify everything.
Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how?
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
At the pessimistic end of the scale, at this point it's also totally possible that the Budget could just:
🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs
🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
A very worthwhile use of AI would be to work out when something on video footage was worth notifying the police (and owners). In future, 30 seconds into this, the police could already be aware, drones dispatched, number plates flagged and maybe even the car bricked. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
This is a common take, but I think it rather depends on whether the changes are adding new unevenness to the tax system OR smoothing over existing unevenness
One likely extra reason for this £50k bump is that the basic rate of dividend tax is only 8.75% – 25 points lower than the higher rate of 33.75% – so company owner-managers will plan their finances around that.
To be pedantic, that's not true of changing salary sacrifice: that's about National Insurance relief
I'm proud to have received the innovation prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards – for my and my colleagues' work producing an alternative to Labour Force Survey stats www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...
And no-one over the age of 15 should be in education?
This is rhetorically the most pro-building govt ever, but housebuilding has ground to a halt and Heathrow still expect their planning app to cost £800m to produce.
The problem is there's a massive gap between what Labour say they want and what they're doing.
www.samdumitriu.com/p/rhetoric-v...
Further info here: bsky.app/profile/clea...
