My projections don't touch defense, but since this is basically a Jo Adell fan account, I'll shout him out today too. Despite a very slow start (offensively), Batter DNA doesn't see anything to worry about. Lefty smasher who can hold his own against righties too. #MLB #Angels
Parker Messick already looks like an ace. In only 11 innings, he's improved his wRC+ projection by 15 points (he only had 39 innings coming into this season, so his projection is still very malleable). Great control and swing-and-miss stuff. Fun one to watch for the #Guardians. #MLB
On the pitching side, these guys have only had a few starts, but I'm starting to see some double-digit projection movement already. MacKenzie Gore looks like an ace, improving his wRC+ projection from 83 to 72. Good fastball control and swing-and-miss stuff with his breaking ball. #MLB #Rangers
This account has always been a fan of Ketel Marte. Despite his slow start to the season, his wRC+ projection has actually improved from 122 to 140. Rare combination of contact and hard hit ability, especially against righties. Sleeper MVP candidate. #MLB #Diamondbacks
Evan Carter's wRC+ projection has improved by 27 points already, but it's a good news/bad news situation. He can smash righties (120 wRC+), but the outlook against lefties is still off-the-chart bad (67). There are worst fates than being a strong-side platoon guy. #MLB #Rangers
I'll highlight a few guys today whose stocks have risen the most in the first couple of weeks. First up, Max Muncy (Athletics version). Coming into the season, Batter DNA had him at a 74 wRC+ projection, but his hot start has improved that by 37 points. He looks legit, especially against righties.
First projections update for 2026 is live: bergerball.com/baseball-pro...
#MLB
HE DID IT AGAIN!
Adell goes into the crowd to rob JP Crawford of a HR
I did make a few tweaks to the system, but the bones of it are the same as usual. If you are new here, check out the methodology here: bergerball.com/what-is-pitc...
Baseball is back! My projections are updated for 2026. These show full season projections, but reminder that my system works a little differently. It projects ahead the next 100 PAs, so all season lines are extrapolates from that. #MLB
bergerball.com/baseball-pro...
Will share this every time it comes across my feed. Total chaos.
Haven't posted much lately; real job trumps side project every time.
But wanted to take a victory lap on Jo Adell. Never a doubt!
The best pitch-for-pitch pitcher right now is Cade Smith of the #Guardians. His fastball has +4 swinging strikes against both hands, but what makes him special is control. He has -5 called balls against righties and a -8 against lefties. He is pounding the zone and you can't touch it. #MLB
I'm all-in on MacKenzie Gore. Against lefties he has an overpowering fastball with +2.8 swinging strikes (per 100 pitches). Rarely throws offspeed, so don't read much into that column. Against righties he has two good pitches and limits hard and medium contact. A Top-10 starter. #MLB
The Kyle Stowers breakout looks legit to me. Excellent hard and medium contact against righties. Much more pedestrian against lefties (offspeed is small sample), but even there, he has good power against lefty fastballs. #MLB
Cal Raleigh is the story of the first half. My Batter DNA projections for his wRC+ have been in the 120's to 150's all season and currently sit at 145. So, I think his 178 wRC+ will come down, but this is a legit MVP-level hitter. Uses foul balls as a weapon to wait on something to crush. #MLB
Will Warren looks like the real deal for the #Yankees. Above average swinging strikes on all six pitch buckets (although he rarely throws a breaking ball). Excellent control with his fastball and has no platoon split. FIP is a run-and-half lower than his ERA. #MLB
Good to see Ronald Acuna snap right back to MVP form. Above average hard hit rate on 5/6 pitch buckets. Above average called balls on all six. Fingers crossed for continued health. #MLB #Braves
The Batter DNA system has long been a fan of Jo Adell. To the point that I stopped posting about him because the results were never catching up with his lofty projections. It may finally be coming together He posted a 185 wRC+ in June. Still only 26. #MLB #Angels
MVP-level start to the season for Cal Raleigh. The Baseball DNA system has always liked him because he uses fouls to extend ABs. Odds are his current 187 wRC+ will regress, but this is an outstanding hitter against both hands, at a premium position. #MLB #Dumper
James Wood looks like the real deal. Extremely patient profile -- above average called balls and called strikes across the board. Good power on fastballs against lefties and secondary pitches against righties. A 132 wRC+ projection for a 22-year-old is exciting. #MLB #Nationals
Jasson Dominguez is starting to look like the real deal. Merely average against lefties, but hits well against righties due to better power. Above average called balls on all six pitch buckets. Good contact skills, especially against righty fastballs. Encouraging Batter DNA for a 22-year-old. #MLB
I'm buying (extremely) low on Sandy Alcantara. His Pitcher DNA shows good control on all six pitch buckets and above average swinging strikes on 5/6. He is giving up far too many hard and medium BIP right now. I would bet on an ERA in the 4's going forward... if he doesn't get sent down. #MLB
Batter DNA is buying the new Trent Grisham. He's showing elite patience and contact skills. Hits righties much better than lefties, but the overall picture is excellent. Whatever changes the #Yankees made are working. Likely the league will adjust somewhat, but this is a legit breakout. #MLB
Batter DNA is skeptical of the Pete Crow-Armstrong breakout. Hits righties well, but below average against lefties. Below average called balls on 5/6 pitch buckets. Below average hard hit rate on 5/6. Above average swinging strikes on 5/6. I wouldn't bet on a wRC+ in the 140's. #MLB #Cubs
Ryan McMahon is an interesting case. He currently has a 83 wRC+, but Batter DNA sees a very good hitter. Excellent eye, good hard hit rates (12% barrel rate!), and good contact, especially against righties. I love a projection that will either look brilliant or horrible a month from now. #MLB
Matt Carpenter calls it a career. Excellent player for a long time and then had one of the best "dead cat bounce" seasons of all time.
wRC+ by year:
124
146
117
140
136
124
140
96
85
68
*216*
85
95
#MLB #Cardinals
