@elisaewers44.bsky.social & I have a new essay on how the Iran war tested U.S. policy assumptions: While some held up, others broke down.
U.S. planning did not fail. The administration ignored it.
As policymakers look to the day after, those assumptions need a hard reset.
Graphic announcing the Council's two new vice presidents of research, featuring headshots of Dr. Raymond Kuo and Dr. Ariane Tabatabai over an alabaster background of the Chicago skyline.
The Council is excited to welcome two new members to our team. @kuorum.bsky.social will join the Council as Vice President of Research, Geostrategy and Diplomacy, and @atabatabai.bsky.social will join us as Vice President of Research, Security and Defense. bit.ly/4mlvO0X
On Lawfare Daily, @atabatabai.bsky.social talked to John Ghazvinian about his book “America and Iran: A History, 1720 to the Present." They discuss the key events that have shaped the relationship between the two countries and their perceptions of one another. youtu.be/9vN_JMwUdwY
So here is my request:
Support Lawfare’s work to sustain public service and inform the public.
Also consider supporting Ben's effort to get batteries and generators to Ukrainians.
As for me, more soon. But you’ll keep reading my work on the Lawfare website.
givebutter.com/f7fpQk
But the United States faces a deep public service crisis that is invisible to many Americans.
Government is losing experienced talent fast.
Workforce cuts, toxic politics, and attacks on expertise push people out even as national security threats grow more complex.
I’m grateful to @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org and the entire Lawfare team for this opportunity and for building a pipeline for former public servants at a moment when the country desperately needs one.
I wish the Public Service Fellowship did not need to exist.
Tomorrow will be my last day as a Public Service Fellow at @lawfaremedia.org.
Over the past six months I covered everything from Venezuela and the Iran war to tensions inside NATO (remember Greenland?) and Indo-Pacific issues.
A pattern of U.S. policy swings across administrations in recent decades have altered how allies view U.S. credibility and engagement with NATO. @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social explore how the alliance can function under persistent uncertainty.
With our big thanks to @jonatomic.bsky.social for his helpful feedback!
On March 2, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out his vision for the future of nuclear deterrence in Europe. @atabatabai.bsky.social and @j-dren.bsky.social explore what this plan to decrease Europe's reliance on U.S. extended deterrence means for the transatlantic relationship.
On Lawfare Daily, @atabatabai.bsky.social sat down with Elisa Catalano Ewers to talk about Iranian intentions and capabilities, the U.S. response and capability gaps, and how allies and partners, in the Middle East and beyond, are participating. youtu.be/69yKVb9mbJo
Glad to be back on NPR’s Weekend Edition this morning to talk about the status of Iran’s nuclear program.
one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5753...
On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, @nkorpett.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week’s news in national security including a U.S. strike on what turned out to be an elementary school in southern Iran, and more.
From CISA to the FBI, the national security apparatus has undergone significant firings & slashed budgets under President Trump. Troy Edwards, Bruria Haya Friedman-Feldman, and Vishnu Kannan explain the impact of these actions on the government's ability to prevent Iranian operations on U.S. soil.
If you want deeper context for the headlines about Iran right now, my second book, No Conquest, No Defeat, examines the foundations of Iran’s security thinking & traces the historical roots of its nuclear & missile programs, proxy networks, and hybrid warfare strategy.
academic.oup.com/book/33514
Back in 2020, my colleague Elisa Catalano Ewers & I wrote this piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social, where we laid out how Iran was positioning itself then to withstand a closing of the Strait of Hormuz, a tool it’d be prepared to use.
warontherocks.com/2020/07/how-...
Time may be on Iran’s side in its conflict with the United States as President Trump faces domestic and international pressure to end the war.
On Lawfare Daily, Fmr Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matt Olsen joined @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org to discuss the terrorist threat from Iran, the shocking lack of preparedness for Iranian malign activity, and the pending lapse of FISA 702.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawf...
On last week's Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with his Lawfare colleagues @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, Daniel Byman, and @atabatabai.bsky.social for an in-depth discussion of the U.S. military operations against Iran.
Watch their conversation: youtu.be/j-0aI-nLgIg
Yesterday morning, @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org sat down with @sranderson.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social, and Troy Edwards to discuss the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran's response, and what may happen next.
Watch their discussion: youtube.com/live/mcld4DB...
LIVE NOW: @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, @atabatabai.bsky.social, Troy Edwards, and @sranderson.bsky.social are discussing the U.S. strikes on Iran, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's response, and what may happen.
Watch their conversation: open.substack.com/live-stream/...
Tomorrow at 9am ET, @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, @atabatabai.bsky.social, Troy Edwards, and @sranderson.bsky.social will discuss the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran's response, and what may happen next.
Subscribe to receive an alert when the live starts:
This is likely the first phase of counterattacks. The first two target-sets (US bases & energy) are part of the usual Iranian playbook, the third less so.
As I said on NPR this morning, we should expect a second phase once this one is over, which will play out in the gray zone internationally.
Thanks to @npr.org for having me on Weekend Edition this morning to talk about the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, what we can expect from the Iranian regime, and what’s next.
one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5726...
Excited to share “AI Cooperation under the Shadow of China’s Digital Silk Road” tinyurl.com/3jkap6x5 examining how the PRC advances AI ties across the Global South & offers actionable recs for democracies to compete through partner agency, interoperability, sustainable financing,& capacity-building.
On Lawfare Daily, @atabatabai.bsky.social and @ebrewer.bsky.social joined @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org for a discussion of the likelihood of a U.S. strike on Iran, what the objectives would be, the legality of a strike, and more. youtu.be/IfNGVWjglL4
On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with Daniel Byman, @michael-feinberg.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social to talk through some recent big news stories around the world, including Marco Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference, U.S.-Iranian negotiations, and more.
Trump’s attempts to dominate allies come with many costs and few benefits, write @atabatabai.bsky.social and @j-dren.bsky.social.
Today's Lawfare Daily is a panel with @sranderson.bsky.social, Claire Finkelstein, Christopher Maier, Larry Lewis, and Geoffrey Corn on the challenges of civilian harm mitigation in urban warfare environments at a conference hosted by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law. youtu.be/bexOMyFLaPg
The Washington Post—for which I wrote editorials for nearly a decade—has closed its Kyiv bureau.
@lawfaremedia.org has not—and we will not.
We now employ more people in Kyiv than the Washington Post.
Let me tell you about what we have done in Ukraine over the past year and why we are not leaving
