Echoing solid card spend, another solid US retail sales report, +4.2% y/y ex gas/autos. Broad strength with furniture only down category (itself much better than Jan-Feb). Electronics, sporting, apparel stand-outs & web back to 10% growth. $XLY $XLF $XRT $AMZN $DKS $TJX $BBY

Not just strength at Big Bank (higher end) customers. Way down demo spectrum, Synchrony saw credit card spend accelerate 300bp from Q4 to +6%. Quality steady with zero sign of consumers maxing out cards. 💪 $SYF $COF $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $XLF $XLY $WMT $DG $TJX $DLTR

War. And it's also very early.

These Kering charts explain why constant talk of 'death of luxury' is misplaced. In 4 years post Covid, sales +7%, 2X LT average. Has now been digested. Plus, $PPRUY now describes mid-price as €2-3K. Pre-Covid that was €1-1.5K. Humongous pricing = culling customer base. $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY

Encouraging Q at $PEP. Portfolio quality way above US foods as Frito posted first volume growth since Q2 2023 despite intensifying GLP popularity. Soda better too, while International remains strong. War clouds cost outlook but solid start on sales $KO $GIS $KHC $CPB $CAG $XLP

Schwab asset gathering machine trundles on. Transactional sweep cash hit $407 billion with deposits down helping NIM. Happening even as Money market fund holdings rise showing $SCHW marketing prowess. Underlying net new assets +5.4%, phenomenal for company of this scale.

Like peers, $BAC cites consistent US strength but also resilience overseas. Admits takes time for consumer to fully absorb darkening times but points to discretionary growth in March even as gas began to climb. $JPM $WFC $XLF $XLY $AXP $V $MA

For all of Dimon’s doom talk he points out private credit is not systemic & consumer/corporate debt isn’t elevated. His concern as it should be is at some point credit cycle will turn, outcomes will be worse & as usual there will be some surprising losers. $JPM $XLF $XLY

$JPM & $WFC here highlight healthy spend across board due to solid labor markets & continued credit access. $JPM makes point that gas is small % of spend & will not debt that hugely unless we get very bad ME outcomes. $BAC $XLF $XLY $AXP $V $MA $XRT

All that said, Hermes still looks fine. Given war context, retail strong +8.5% with US up striking +17%. Leather (still scarce) +9%, set to accelerate through 2026. Bumps but not overly concerning even as valuation takes another hit. $HESAY $LVMUY $CFRUY $PPRUY

Hermes still best-in-class in luxury but at +6%, weakest since 2020 vs street at +7%. Hit by Middle East locally & in France. Asia also soft. But disconcerting to hear $HESAY cite tourism hit vs boasting about wealthy local clientele in past. And unlike $LVMUY & $PPRUY, Q1 sales decelerated ex ME.

Rounding out big banks, $BAC reports +7% card (+9% debit) spend, 100bp acceleration with improved credit quality; consumer & corporate charge-offs at LT averages. Travel, retail, entertainment up most = US discretionary spend remains strong. 💪 $JPM $WFC $XLY $XLF $V $MA $AXP

Latest sign of luxury resilience: Chanel just took a price rise. In 2023 at peak of hubris, it planned to take 6-monthly increases but then promptly skipped 2 years on too much negative pushback. Combined with Blazy halo & new hit bags, finding mojo back $HESAY $LVMUY $CFRUY

Like LVMH, Kering relatively upbeat. Ex-Middle East, March sales +3% vs flat reported. Remarkable strength in jewelry & in US. And yes Gucci was disappointing but other fashion brands outpaced street with solid read-thru for luxury especially amid war. $PPRUY $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY $ZGN $BURBY

Gucci -8% still big drag, 11th straight Q of declines. US better but other regions still weak. Kering has stopped disclosing sales of smaller brands (never great) & they're ok but regionally uneven. Definitely among most inferior luxury portfolios $PPRUY $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY

Kering fashion retail -2% vs -4% in prior Q. But underlying improvement better ex Middle East hit. US THE highlight, strong +9%, significant acceleration from prior +2% including at Gucci. Unlike LVMH, China still weak down mid-teens. $PPRUY $HESAY $CFRUY $LVMUY

Kering second luxury laggard to report. For first time in 30(!) months, sales turned positive. Jewelry +22% vs fashion -3% showing huge contrast between categories favoring Cartier. But even fashion ex-Gucci looks flat like at LVMH. $CFRUY $PPRUY $LVMUY $HESAY $RL $RACE $TPR

Citi wraps up the banks for today, with similar consumer trends as peers. US card spend accelerated 100bp to +6%, with better quality y/y. For $C, $WFC & $JPM also steady growth in card loans, indicating to credit card maxing behavior. Just health all around. $XLY $XLF $V $MA

$WFC saw similar 200bp jump from Q4 in debit spend to +7% while credit quality steady leading to consumer reserve release like $JPM. CEO compelled to add caution like Dimon, given how strong momentum is. For US consumer, Iran remains a far away place for now. 🔥 $XLF $XLY $BAC $AXP $V $MA

$JPM kicks off bank reporting with very strong update on US consumer. Card spend accelerated 200bp to +9%, matching fastest pace of last 3 years. Delinquencies steady, charge-offs up on Q4 but below LY. Dimon adds usual caution but no mistaking consumer strength 💪 $XLF $XLY $BAC $V $MA $WMT $AMZN

Even Moet Hennessy showed signs of life despite what feel like many secular headwinds in booze even if 5% pace is exaggerated: champagne stabilised & cognac up over Chinese New Year in China. $LVMUY $DEO $BF.B

Upbeat LVMH call: US improvement included March. China best since 2023. Middle East -50% in March & at that pace would be 3% hit in full Q. Excitement over Anderson at Dior. Even at $LVMUY, top end doing best with LV weak on aspirational consumer caution & maybe ubiquity(?) $HESAY $CFRUY

Other pointers from LVMH : very strong Tiffany sales in positive read through for Cartier. Decent read on Sephora, $ULTA & premium beauty. Booze lifted $LVMUY but core luxury performance relatively resilient given macro/geopolitical context. $CFRUY $HESAY $PPRUY $DEO

Folks calling LVMH Q disappointing but frankly for luxury laggard could have been far worse. Sales (bar Europe hit by Middle East) accelerated in US & China. Key fashion division flat adjusted for Middle East, first non-negative number in almost two years. $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY

Worth noting this survey when companies from Delta to Levi’s are reporting strength & Redbook is running at 7%. Watch what folks do not what they say (X infinity)

Delta said this about premium travel but ‘headline’ fatigue vs real current consequences go a long way to explain across-board resilience especially at high end globally. $DAL $CCL $AXP $RL $TPR $CFRUY $HESAY $RACE $XLY $XLF

Here’s Delta à la Carnival also highlighting US demand strength across corporate, leisure premium & even economy which inflected for first time in 15 months. More signals of how insular US is to international events $DAL $CCL $UAL $MAR $ABNB $AXP $BKNG $XLF $XLY

Confirming luxury strength, Cucinelli Q1 sales +14%, fastest since Q3 2024. Europe slower but US, Asia grew at fastest pace in 2 years. US hit 20%+ growth, acceleration from Q4 of 900bp. Asia +18% despite 15% exposure to Middle East.🔥 $HESAY $CFRUY $LVMUY $RACE

Wary of extrapolating but despite being smashed on war fears, trading surprisingly brisk at luxury in Rome including beleaguered LV-Dior. Hermes, Cartier strong; even Chanel excitement despite losing sheen. Yes may be downturns but top franchises are 💎$HESAY $CFRUY $LVMUY

You could say all is fair in love and war. But goes to show how far Dubai goes to protect Emirates. Really for other governments to respond in kind. That talk of unfair competition from both Asian & European pera rings very true