“Benchmark north-west European prices for jet fuel closed at $1,573 a tonne on Thursday, according to price reporting agency Argus Media, up from about $750 a tonne before the Iran war.”
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
The Netherlands Court of Audit has published an evaluation of the Dutch Anti-Money Laundering system.
Their conclusion: "...the current anti-money laundering approach is insufficiently effective and efficient."
www.rekenkamer.nl/documenten/2...
Thanks for the shoutout!
My new essay for @aeon.co explores the little understood world of underground banking.
Despite intense state pressure, these ancient networks have retained their independence. It is a story that holds critical lessons for our fracturing global financial order.
#polisky
aeon.co/essays/the-u...
Solid read on underground, off-grid financial flows.
Not everything passes through a centralized banking system. And not all such flows are for illicit matters.
My new essay for @aeon.co explores the little understood world of underground banking.
Despite intense state pressure, these ancient networks have retained their independence. It is a story that holds critical lessons for our fracturing global financial order.
#polisky
aeon.co/essays/the-u...
Data center securitization, equity bubble, private credit withdrawals, oil crisis, crypto banking licenses, prediction market insider trading, FCPA on pause…everything is fine.
Hear hear. I wrote about the central role the Netherlands plays in F-35 sustainment last year. The narrative of EU dependence on the US is so oversimplified. It is a deeply reciprocal relationship across security and economic affairs.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
“Increasingly the US is not so much the gatekeeper of the world’s only energy system, but the paranoid guardian of an ailing oil order that is rapidly losing primacy.”
Great data-packed overview —>
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle Nvidia's AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution?
A new post for False Positive:
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-silico...
I sometimes joke that drug smugglers' techniques will soon be used to move other goods.
But I didn't think "Nvidia chips" would be on that list.
The problem, and a possible solution, by @mileskellerman.bsky.social :
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle Nvidia's AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution?
A new post for False Positive:
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-silico...
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Just thinking about how lots of people in the White House are making money off of this
It is hard to ignore the convenience of this initiative for American social media companies who might otherwise be restricted by campaign finance laws
What explains Trump's rise? How did we get here?
There are many theories. But I keep coming back to a single place: Orange County, California.
Here's a story about how my hometown invented subprime lending and, in turn, changed the course of history
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/orange-cou...
Writing in the Oxford Business Law Blog, I argue we face a "Detection Trilemma" in financial crime.
The solution? Licensed Detection Agents — regulated bounty hunters empowered to surveil data and rewarded for results.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky #finance
blogs.law.ox.ac.uk/oblb/blog-po...
“European officials, on the other hand, talk incessantly about the anti-coercion instrument, but it still fails to deter because they seem so extraordinarily reluctant to deploy it.”
@himself.bsky.social gets to the heart of the matter in a clear eyed op-Ed.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...
To prevent miscalculation, avoid US taking Greenland, Europe has to disabuse the US of the notion that it is weak. This means clearly signaling what's on the table to deter action. To deter, Europe has to be clear. The problem is Euro foreign policy is anything but clear. 9/
They did after 9/11, it's a historical fact.
The thing to know about the PM of Canada is he just signed a trade deal with China. He is as serious as a heart attack about this.
"You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination."
"Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..."
In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges.
www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
Enjoyed this. I wrote a piece last week expressing similar sentiments (👇). The problem is not just the gamification of world events; it's also their reduction to binary outcomes, a trend that warps reality and encourages the worst forms of nihilism.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Hi Brian, I wrote a piece last week expressing similar sentiments that might be of interest —>
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
May be of interest to @weisenthal.bsky.social @tracyalloway.bsky.social @mattlevineofficial.bsky.social @katie0martin.ft.com @profgalloway.com @mims.bsky.social #kalshi #polymarket
Before the Venezuela operation, a user made $400k on Polymarket betting against Maduro.
Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
My head is spinning as Trump goes full neo-royalist. Venezuela becomes a tool to redistribute oil revenues to those of Trump's choosing. Very similar to the exceptions and investment deals tied to tariff negotiations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
With suspiciously perfect timing, someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's ousting.
In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
