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Posts by Toby Nangle

Never seen it; now on my list.

21 hours ago 2 0 1 0
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"Oh, and bigger than the Mexican one too"

21 hours ago 5 0 2 0
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"Make it look like the Arc de Triomphe, but make it bigger than the North Korean one"?

21 hours ago 7 0 2 0
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Had not appreciated quite how closely the planned Arc de Trump copies the Arc de Triomphe size and proportions. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

21 hours ago 28 6 8 2

It’s all on the UN Population Division’s website tbf. So much info, the challenge is picking which bit to highlight.

22 hours ago 1 0 1 0

One of those instances where ‘projections’ and ‘forecasts’ are not synonymous. Was tempted to dig through the myriad other variant projections to see how they differed but … time. (Also, big files, laptop freezes.)

22 hours ago 7 0 1 0

Actually, was poking around a database yesterday that I noticed has this very data. Will take a look.

22 hours ago 4 0 0 0
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Ok, not quite US, but <Pakistan & =Nigeria. A bit >DR Congo.

23 hours ago 6 0 0 0
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🚨China projected to shrink down to US size? www.ft.com/content/bbef...

23 hours ago 35 7 9 6

It's going to be even worse the next time they appoint Peter Mandelson

1 day ago 1534 383 24 10

WhatsApp groups of finance folks have FOR YEARS been hugely angry every time "oh well, public figure ethics and governance is hard" comes up.

There is an extensive framework applied by the FCA to appointments, trading, conflicts, etc. Extend it to politicians?

1 day ago 6 0 0 0

I had a boss whose onboarding was delayed no end because his undergrad university had a birthdate one day different from that in his passport. Wasn't allowed in the building for weeks until it was cleared up.

1 day ago 3 0 1 0

In the commercial world, all the time. Though always subject to references and checks. Financial services firms tend to do enhanced DBS checks on grunts at a minimum that can delay giving someone a lift pass no end. More senior types checks often outsourced and forensic.

1 day ago 6 0 1 0

Honestly don't know Ken. I imagine much of the retail flow goes in via financial advisers, so I'd be surprised if this isn't considered at the outset — maybe in the form of including a life insurance side-car or something.

1 day ago 0 0 1 0
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Apropos of nothing, if a fund redeems 5% per quarter and *everyone* wants out, how long does it take for you to fully exit?

Maybe 5% x 20 quarters = 5yrs?
Actually 0.95^∞ = NEVER (though 90% out after 11.25yrs)

Basic power series stuff, sure.

1 day ago 35 5 3 2

Thanks Ed!

1 day ago 0 0 0 0
Right. So let's sum up. Private credit is full of cruddy loans issued by companies that couldn't get financed anywhere else, and assembled haphazardly into rattlebags, rather than carefully constructed portfolios, by dealmakers (cosplaying as managers) who get paid to shovel client money out as fast as they can.

Consequently, they have concentrated client funds in sectors prone to Al disruption to a stupid degree - loans that were anyway turning sour even before anyone was talking about SaaSpocaplyse (although the industry has swept this under the carpet by restructuring problem loans into PIK loans)
- and the juggernaut of insurance capital into the sector has even stopped valuations adjusting to the point where it might become sensible.

Right. So let's sum up. Private credit is full of cruddy loans issued by companies that couldn't get financed anywhere else, and assembled haphazardly into rattlebags, rather than carefully constructed portfolios, by dealmakers (cosplaying as managers) who get paid to shovel client money out as fast as they can. Consequently, they have concentrated client funds in sectors prone to Al disruption to a stupid degree - loans that were anyway turning sour even before anyone was talking about SaaSpocaplyse (although the industry has swept this under the carpet by restructuring problem loans into PIK loans) - and the juggernaut of insurance capital into the sector has even stopped valuations adjusting to the point where it might become sensible.

🚨 Took a look at Sona Asset Mgmt’s ‘Honest Assessment’ of Private Credit. www.ft.com/content/e57d...

1 day ago 266 42 4 3
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Huge congratulations!

2 days ago 1 0 1 0

Reports of a third attempted arson attack on Jewish targets in North London this week. It's getting really scary and more people need to start taking it seriously.

2 days ago 1167 324 52 21

As I think @dsquareddigest.bsky.social has written, regulation exists for good reason, erected usually to stop a really bad and unacceptable thing from happening again. But it’s also possible that the things that is bad and unacceptable at an individual level could be helpful to economic growth.

2 days ago 5 1 1 0

I guess it’s the perennial ‘red tape/ regulation vs economic growth/ progress’ debate that rages through arguments about planning laws, otherwise described.

2 days ago 1 0 2 0

Not 100% convinced, but the trade-offs described make it compelling. To see the pace of transformations witnessed across China do we need to look 100yrs back in the UK?

2 days ago 2 0 3 0

Recently finished Dan Wang’s excellent ‘Breakneck: China’s quest to engineer the future’ and was reasonably taken with his Engineer State vs Lawyer State taxonomy to differentiate countries that get big stuff done fast & those that are v good at stopping things happening, but protect rights.

2 days ago 7 1 3 0
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Tremendously depressing read. Also: proper reporting.

open.substack.com/pub/londonce...

3 days ago 554 152 28 34
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🚨 Took a look at FAR TOO MANY Form ADV disclosures to try to work out which asset managers are managing all the SWFs for Alphaville. www.ft.com/content/c411...

5 days ago 16 8 1 1
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Next President?

4 days ago 1 0 1 0
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FTAV’s Friday chart quiz: improv edition Just For Graphs

If you've never attempted an @alphaville.ft.com charts quiz because, you know, they're really really hard THIS WEEK IS YOUR WEEK. Kudos to the genius of @bryce.lol www.ft.com/content/9501...

4 days ago 9 3 0 0
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Alphaville: Why the Extremely Paywalled FT’s Shitposting ‘Skunkworks’ is Still Free to Read Robin Wigglesworth, the editor of the snarky, meme-y Financial Times finance blog spoke to AMO about the debate over keeping it outside the FT paywall.

Lovely piece from @bronmaher.bsky.social on Alphaville, "the FT’s Shitposting ‘Skunkworks’", with input from @robinwigglesworth.ft.com, @lionelbarber.bsky.social and a small contribution from yours truly

www.amediaoperator.com/news/financi...

5 days ago 65 14 3 5
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The founding fathers would have hated the ‘Arc de Trump’ Washington DC with its history of sugary classical monuments could accommodate one more — but the president has no sense of scale

Brilliant story, wonderfully told, by Edwin Heathcote www.ft.com/content/0a60...

5 days ago 11 3 0 0
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The Donald J Trump Victory Arch for Kids Who Can't Fight Good (and Who Wanna Learn to Do Other Stuff Good Too)?

5 days ago 12 2 1 0