The war’s damage, so quick and deep across the Asia-Pacific, will not be easy to contain. Even if the U.S. and Iran reach a lasting peace, the forces of scarcity and inflation have gained momentum and are on the move www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/w...
Interventions like those involving Iran are not isolated events, but part of a broader transformation in which the decline of the existing order, the reshaping of coalitions, and the redefinition of sovereignty are unfolding all at once theloop.ecpr.eu/why-regime-c... @ecprtheloop.bsky.social
After being feted for approximately five minutes as the ultimate “Trump-whisperer” and a great hire, Mandelson managed to score the hat trick and secure his third controversy-related resignation www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The recent S&P 500 rally marked only the 5th time this century it rallied so far this fast & the first such rally to race to an all-time high. All previous such rebounds came from terribly oversold conditions driven by bad news & two proved fools’ rallies www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
If a blue wave materializes, Democrats have a chance to ride it to Senate control (through North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Maine and possibly Texas and Iowa) www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/u...
The global economy is far more robust and resilient than oil sector lobbyists like to claim. In the end, the US has the upper hand in this conflict and will wrap things up soon robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
"having already ample information about Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein, lack of curiosity in Downing St about the security checks speaks volumes. Starmer conducted the appointment in a fashion that made it unwelcome for doubts to be raised about his judgment" www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
In the past six months, top executives from three large oil and metals traders have attended publicly documented meetings with the president at the White House — more than the total for the prior 25 years www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Beyond Hormuz — The Geopolitics of Chokepoints
From straits to Taiwan, from SWIFT to undersea cables, the global economy depends on a small number of vulnerable nodes. My latest Global Political Analysis maps this new geography of global vulnerability ecrresearch.com/research/glo...
Hegseth exemplifies vanity; not per se via shirtless photos & shellacked hair, but through the insistence that his way is His & the only way. That God's bestowed a unique blessing on America, whose might proves its right & whose killing is a kind of grace static.nytimes.com/email-conten...
In normal times, we'd be talking nonstop about the fact that the lethal behemoth of the US military is under the supervision of someone who holds extreme religious beliefs and not only admits but brags about the extent to which they define and drive him static.nytimes.com/email-conten...
The non-proliferation regime has survived difficult periods before. But it cannot survive indefinitely if the major powers continue to signal through their actions that nuclear weapons remain the only reliable guarantee of security www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/iran...
Is China the ultimate victor of the trade wars? @economist.com
Hungarian Hype, Defence Mirage & Iranian Pause
New quick geopolitical radar:
• Premature cheers for Orbán’s possible exit
• Why Europe’s big defence spending push is no economic bazooka
• Iran ceasefire: welcome pause, but full of risks
Read here: ecrresearch.com/global-polit...
Strategic autonomy is essential, but pretending it comes with an automatic economic windfall is wishful accounting www.ft.com/content/124c...
The long decline in global democracy may be easing a little. But in America, it is not abating www.economist.com/interactive/...
Iran has demonstrated that it can absorb 13,000 targeted strikes and still conduct an impressive asymmetric war, choking off oil supplies and sending its cyber army to attack American infrastructure www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...
Today a “long Trump, short Biden” basket is 20% below its peak, roughly where it was around the time of the election in November 2024 www.economist.com/finance-and-...
.@economist.com: Optimists might conclude that yields have dropped because hostilities will soon end, allowing oil to flow freely through the Strait of Hormuz. But optimists generally do not pursue careers in bond investing
Waar voorheen westerse regeringsleiders en ministers meestal zeer voorzichtig waren met directe kritiek op Trump, nemen ze nu steeds minder een blad voor de mond www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/w...
Tanks, Tankers & Tariffs - Three crises. One regime shift.
The military escalation around Iran, Trump’s tariff offensive, and the war of attrition in Ukraine may look like separate events, but they are concrete expressions of a deeper transformation ecrresearch.com/research/glo...
Pam Bondi vertrekt niet omdat zij de ethiek van haar positie aan haar laars heeft gelapt. Wat Trump betreft deed zij dat juist niet genoeg www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/t...
If you define a failed presidency broadly — an approval rating under 35% or the president’s party losing the next presidential election by at least 5pp — most cases involve a combination of a foreign policy quagmire abroad & high prices/recession at home www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/u...
In a world of rising authoritarianism, political instability and corporate predation, Europe will attract talent and investment by offering a rules-based and democratic alternative, not peddling a diet version of Doge www.ft.com/content/ea38...
There are presumably limits to the pain Iran can tolerate, and its arsenal is finite. But the Suez precedent suggests that it not only has little to lose but much to win from continuing the conflict www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
On McCain’s and Powell’s graves, Trump did a lazy waltz. On Mueller’s, a jitterbug. All three were military veterans. All three saw combat. And all three received Bronze Stars and Purple Hearts www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/o...
Iran Steals the Spotlights - Time for a Triple Underexposed. I have taken a slightly different approach than usual in the Underexposed/Overexposed/Spot-On newsletter, giving three important, longer-term developments the attention they deserve ecrresearch.com/global-polit...
Terwijl de Iran-oorlog alle zuurstof uit de media en analistenrapporten zuigt, duik ik deze week in onderbelichte strategische shifts in een Triple Underexposed: drie onderbelichte maar cruciale ontwikkelingen van de lange adem www.linkedin.com/pulse/triple...
Tijdens interne besprekingen heb ik al vaker opgeworpen dat Trump mogelijk weinig geeft om de midterms en volledig focust op zijn legacy en zoals vorige presidenten buitenlandsuccessen probeert te halen de laatste jaren. Lexington begint ook te twijfelen www.economist.com/united-state...
