The Irish Times print edition, 2 February 2026
From such examples, one might conclude that relatively trivial factors are having an exaggerated impact on politics, and that social media is accelerating this change. But is it that simple? "What we definitely observe is this personalisation of politics," says Stefan Müller, associate professor in politics and international relations at University College Dublin, but establishing cause and effect is more complicated.
Müller, who specialises in using large data sets to examine political activity, is the joint author of a magnificently titled study, Evidence for the Irrelevance of Irrelevant Events. It looks at the question of whether
"irrelevant events" outside politicians' control, like sports results or natural disasters, affect voting behaviour.
The short answer is no, despite an
"influential strand" of US research suggesting otherwise. Müller and TCD academic Liam Kneafsey took a novel two-pronged approach, first, mapping GAA results with constituency voting patterns since Irish independence and, then, taking a deep-dive into recent opinion polls.
They found no evidence that sports results - or any change in mood they might generate in a community - affected Irish voting behaviour. "We believe our findings challenge previous arguments that voters are simply irrational and influenced by irrelevancies," they say.
Turning to the Kanturk example, Müller says
"there has been some commentary that this really influenced the campaign but if you look at the polling ... Fine Gael were already losing support before the Kanturk incident.
So it might have contributed to it but was it the only cause? Maybe it has changed some people's view of Simon Harris; that could be the case".
Minor events "can at least change the narrative of the campaign", he says, and there's a bandwagon effect where people tend to mirror the prejudices or preferences of their peers. If a politician gets a negative image in the public sphere - whether it's deserved or not - it can be difficult to shake off.
Joe Humphreys covers our research on election campaigns, candidates, and voting behaviour in today’s Irish Times.
📰 www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2026...
@irishtimes.com
![Sinn Féin: 24% [22–26]
Fianna Fáil: 17.5% [16.5–19]
Fine Gael: 17.5% [16–19]
Ind/Others: 12.5% [11–14.5]
Soc Dems: 8.5% [7–9.5]
Aontú: 5% [4–6]
II: 4.5% [3.5–5.5]
Labour: 4.5% [3.5–5]
Greens: 3% [2.5–4]
S-PBP: 2.5% [2–3.5]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cx6qyib4wwzztfs5mupqajth/bafkreieejnlrrvsiyyhppl5iuno7bdp5s34nkiwfvxb7yautcehwbamiyq)
![Latest Irish Polling Indicator Estimates (5 February 2026):
SF: 22.5% [21–24]
FF: 18% [17–19]
FG: 18% [17–19]
Ind/Oth: 13.5% [12–14.5]
SD: 8.5% [8–9.5]
AÚ: 4.5% [4–5.5]
II: 4.5% [4–5.5]
LAB: 4% [3.5–5]
GP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cx6qyib4wwzztfs5mupqajth/bafkreid3ux62n25wcvagwm5efjolmfagndwffhappsmottakttj7ygzhxq)
![Graph showing most recent Irish Polling Indicator estimates:
SF: 24% [22.5–25.5]
FF: 22% [21–23]
FG: 18.5% [17.5–20]
Ind/Oth: 11.5% [10–13]
SD: 7% [6.5–8]
LAB: 4% [3.5–4.5]
II: 3.5% [3–4.5]
AÚ: 3.5% [2.5–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2.5–3]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cx6qyib4wwzztfs5mupqajth/bafkreidcbofqdvlw54stklqds472rlzc2ac4gfvamgaswvkqwez6oyepfa)
![Most recent Irish Polling Indicator estimates:
SF: 22.5% [20–24.5]
FF: 22% [21–23.5]
FG: 20.5% [18.5–22]
Ind/Oth: 10% [8–12]
SD: 7.5% [6–9]
LAB: 4% [3–5]
AÚ: 4% [3.5–5]
II: 4% [3.5–5]
GP: 3% [2–3.5]
SPBP: 2.5% [2–3.5]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vagyaklkgv33dk6suoc2yy5p/bafkreigl6kl6kignbk5f2p3vyfvobzclewvnvokvkhwiyjkun7boxof72i)
