🚨 New paper accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social: we were in the field while Brexit dominated British politics.
Do MPs respond differently when constituents disagree with the party line?
What we find surprised us: a null!
url: osf.io/preprints/os...
Are we accurately interpreting election results? In our new paper, forthcoming in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, Tim Vlandas and I discuss the risks associated with drawing inferences about national level outcomes based on individual-level analyses- i.e. the 'atomistic fallacy'.
📢 New in IMR. We often ask whether #refugees “integrate.” But what happens when the host society becomes hostile? I develop the concept of social marginalization and show that refugees in more #violent German counties report stronger feelings of exclusion and discrimination. doi.org/10.1177/0197...
My first dissertation paper is out in Sexuality Research and Social Policy — open access! 🎉 It's about trans inclusion in sports and what fairness concerns actually do to public support.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Short thread below 👇
🚨 New WP w/ @leonardocarella.bsky.social on OSF
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
We usually think that social identities precede preferences
We show the reverse is also true: people update their social identities to match their immigration preferences
Focus: class identity in 🇬🇧 + Christian identity in 🇮🇹
New article and special issue!
Just out in Comparative Political Studies: “Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies: Information, Legacies, Temporalities", the intro to a special issue on countering illiberalism in liberal democracies.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Thread 🧵1/7
Thank you, Marta! 😊
Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️
Great to see "The Way Back After Backsliding: Public Opinion and the Restoration of Democracy" with @robbwiller.bsky.social and @m-b-petersen.bsky.social out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
🚨Happy to finally see this out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social (with @leonardocarella.bsky.social)
⁉️ Does growing up when immigration is salient make people vote for parties they agree with on immigration *for the rest of their lives*?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
📄 New WP version out: revised text, tightened argument, and new analysis.
The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social)
Grateful for the helpful comments and presentation opportunities. Further feedback welcome!
🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...
New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵
Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD
How do contemporary challenges of backsliding and war interact? We show that interstate conflict boosts support for undemocratic candidates, especially among Republicans who *do not prefer democratic Rs over undemocratic Rs* during interstate conflict.
Out in @bjpols.bsky.social with Lasse Laustsen
Abstract for the article: How does right-wing terrorism affect electoral support for populist radical right parties (PRRPs)? Recent research has produced contrary answers to this question. We argue that only high-intensity attacks, whose motives and targets mirror PRRPs’ nativist agenda, are likely to generate a media backlash that dampens electoral support for PRRPs. We test this argument by combining high-frequency survey and social media data with a natural and survey experimental design. We find that right-wing terror reduced support for the radical right party Alternative für Deutschland after one of the most intense nativist attacks in recent German history. An analysis of all ninety-eight fatal right-wing attacks in Germany between 1990 and 2020 supports our argument. Our findings contribute to an understanding of how political violence triggers partisan detachment and have important implications for media responsibility in the aftermath of terrorist attacks.
🚨 New article out!
“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.
Short summary thread below 👇
Abstract
New paper out with @dasalgon.bsky.social: “Far-Right Agenda Setting: How the Far Right influences the Political Mainstream” doi.org/10.1017/S1475676525100066 #openaccess in @ejprjournal.bsky.social🧵
Glad to see this out at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! I show that the immigration-crime issue, when salient, can shift leftist cosmopolitans to the Right. This is due to leftist voters being more conservative on crime than leftist parties.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social
Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?
@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions
Thread 🧵1/10
BJPolS abstract discussing the dynamics of mainstream and radical political rhetoric regarding anti-immigrant policies, highlighting differences in societal responses and enforcement norms based on the source of the rhetoric.
NEW -
How Mainstream Politicians Erode Norms - cup.org/4lfeHvD
"we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians"
- @valentimvicente.bsky.social, Elias Dinas & @dziblatt.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the effects of extensive media exposure on public perceptions and normalization. It references specific research surveys conducted on Sky News UK and Australia, analyzing changes in public attitudes and policy effects due to media strategies.
NEW -
Media Platforming and the Normalisation of Extreme Right Views - cup.org/4mmVIAL
"exposure to uncritical interviews increases agreement with extreme statements and perceptions of broader support in the population"
- @dianebolet.bsky.social & @florianfoos.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
🚨 working paper (w. @morganlcj.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social): Protesters are not judged equally - even if tactics of groups are similar.
We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads.
What we find is disturbing:
osf.io/preprints/os...
🚨 My first publication, co-authored with Sylvia Kritzinger & Susanna Bastaroli, is out! In our chapter, we explore how Italians re-elaborate their country’s role in the WWII & the Holocaust.
Available online & in print (EN): www.wallstein-verlag.de/978383535866...
🧵 Some key findings: 👇
🛎️New WP with @morganlcj.bsky.social @timallinger.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social
Against the surge of conjoints and other hypothetical experiments in relation to democratic backsliding, we study the consequences of using hypotheticals versus real-world scenarios.
osf.io/preprints/os...
Paper abstract: Are some political preferences more costly to express? In this study, we investigate the extent to which individuals face social exclusion for showing far-right political beliefs. We run a field experiment in Madrid where confederates initiate an interaction with random passers-by. We randomize whether the confederate wears a neutral (white) t-shirt or a t-shirt of different parties. Results show that passers-by are more likely to avoid interacting with confederates wearing the t-shirt of a far-right party (Vox). This finding holds both when we compare this condition against the neutral t-shirt one or the ones where confederates wear a t-shirt of other parties. Analyses of heterogeneity show that this effect is particularly strong in a left-wing neigbourhood. These findings contribute to theories about peer pressure and social punishment, providing evidence of how those processes can extend to the expression of different political views. They provide new insights into the micro-level mechanisms that underpin broader political trends, particularly the rapid and sometimes unexpected electoral growth of far-right parties.
I am very excited to share a new working paper coauthored with @amaliaab.bsky.social.
Using a field experiment, we find that, in the real world, it is more costly to express far-right preferences than other political preferences.
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/8
Does Mainstream Populism Work❓
I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗
Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️:
Now available Open Access:
📰 Does (immigration) framing influence public opinion?
🧵
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
You wonder how the CDU/CSU playing with the "Brandmauer" to AfD last week has influenced German voters? @mafaldapratas.bsky.social @jmfernandes86.bsky.social & I have you covered. We surveyed sample of 2,000 German voters. 🧵with first results 👇. Spoiler: It did not go down as well as CDU/CSU hoped.
🚨 Happy to see one of my PhD papers out at JEPOP
📚 I examine whether MPs' attention to local issues in parliamentary activities affects their re-election chances in party-centred contexts
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/G2HVG...
Ungated version here: eavigano.github.io/papers/jepop...
🚨 Out now in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social
: "Citizens' Preferences for Multidimensional Representation". Jack Blumenau, Fabio Wolkenstein & I investigate citizens' preferences regarding 6 dimensions of representation using surveys conducted in 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇩🇪. Short 🧵(1/10) doi.org/10.1017/S15375
New working paper!
How do protesters' demographics and policy preferences affect politicians' responsiveness to their demands? I find no effects of shared demographics btw. protesters and politicians, but asymmetric responsiveness to left-right policy preferences: gupea.ub.gu.se/handle/2077/...