That’s not super helpful in isolation because what was the same number at 10am in 2025 😭

and when I say concrete I mean full-context numbers, like what's the turnout as a % of 2025 at the same time, etc.

For example, we know Rs turn out much stronger in the first half of the day relative to Ds, who do relatively best after work hours

gonna ring this bell again bc people are asking me if turnout is good or bad, and I can't tell you if a number from Charlottesville or Loudoun etc. is good unless we have concrete numbers from New Kent or Hanover etc. to compare to (and I don't!)

Relative to 2024, here are the 15 localities that had the highest and lowest turnout in 2025

This year, the bottom 15 localities would need roughly 20-25% higher %2025 turnout than the top 15 to get to an equal share of 2024's vote total

9/10am updates

Good morning Krusty Krew

My baseline assumption for Election Day turnout is that it’ll be relatively weaker than the very high EV turnout

Also curious to see how voting is distributed throughout the day

In 2025, it was much more afternoon-heavy than 2024

In VA

in 2024, eday votes were 11.6% right of the overall result and 13.1% right of the in-person early vote

In 2025, eday was 7.7% right of the overall result and 7% right of the in-person early vote

Wouldn’t be surprised if that gap narrowed a bit further this year

(SD04 special in tx)

Just voted, apparently I was like the 11th voter today 💀

Keep in mind that turnout only matters in a relative sense, so we won’t know if turnout is “good” without info from the rest of the state

If you want one to watch it’s Alexandria - it’s furthest behind 2025 in EV bc it lost its only satellite

So look for a big eday there

For whatever reason, NoVa counties love giving eday turnout updates when literally no one else will

So here are 2025’s eday numbers if you want to follow along on Tuesday

Loudoun cast 7832 early votes today, roughly 112% of last year and a new single-day record for EV

Previous total record was the final day of 2024 at 7599

Total IPEV is 86% of 2025; not bad considering it went from 12 days of satellites to 5

Eday is a big open question

Hungary is 100% in 🥳
tisza won 141 seats, though I know Magyar said he’d challenge the seat where Fidesz ran a fake Peter Magyar

Tisza leads the list vote 53.2% - 38.6% (+14.6%)

They won the domestic vote 55.8% to 36.3% (+19.4% unrounded)

Petersburg not reporting in-person votes two days in a row specifically just to pmo 😐

To be totally fair, their poll is still gonna end up being objectively fine/pretty good

But the complete lack of shame in making these graphics and posting about how amazing you did before all the votes are in is something else lol

Also congrats to Atlas who made many posts about them being the most accurate pollster when the wokest 5% of votes were still outstanding 🤠

(Since all transfers, reregistrations, and embassy votes are processed at one polling station per constituency, it’s a lot lol)

Tisza came up just short in the last constituency, but their lead in the list vote has sufficiently expanded for them to pick up another list seat

Now +14% there and at 141 seats total

Honestly that’s a pretty good effort from Loudoun for only having one location open

About 40% of 2025, when all five were open on Friday

(Congressional specials tend to get a bit more turnout and also have higher raw vote totals which lessens volatility a bit)

Specifically meant congressional specials, sorry!

We know party reg ≠ party ID (look at Florida every special)

It’s a bad analytical tool here

Mejia’s performance is among the weakest relative to 2024, but that’s almost entirely bc of those Jewish towns

And while notable, it’s not something that’ll be universally applicable/relevant

so much meth math going on 😐 these elections are exclusively hyper-engaged voters

Mejia underperformed Harris in Jewish areas, but had a very typical (big) overperformance elsewhere

“Look at party reg, Mejia did bad”
“Look at 2024, Mejia did good” are both bad takeaways imo

No just these two seats 😭

There do seem to be a lot of candidates with the Dr. title, but of the ten closest seats, these are the only four main party candidates who have it

These two constituencies have reported and tisza did end up winning them fairly handily

To my eye, one more constituency could maybe flip but it’ll be very close

Not sure about where list seats stand

There are two more constituencies near-guaranteed to flip, and their lead in the list vote will start growing again

But the math for the list seats is so complicated it’s difficult to tell for sure what the final seat count will be

In Hungary, constituencies have a polling station for transfers and expats with a domestic address

Those locations tend to be left of the constituency overall and are getting processed today/tomorrow

Tolna 03 processed theirs today and TISZA won it by 47% to take the lead and flip the seat

Yeah, every locality with satellites has them open sat

Thursday numbers, Norfolk had no satellites yesterday so you can see how much they matter lmao

Norfolk has its satellites open today and tomorrow, but Loudoun and Arlington both close theirs today

But should see some very big numbers today in Fairfax, PWC, and Norfolk

Two eday precincts in Essex left and then late mail + provisionals will add to her margin a bit, so maybe +21-22 when all is said and done

I doubt they’ll contest it but turnout will naturally be less imbalanced

Basically no Kamala-won seat is at risk so the R spending is going to be entirely defensive