Alrighty, ready to see something really cool? (and maybe a little nauseating)

The evolution of Hurricane Melissa's mesovortices at peak strength.

Given higher than usual confidence of rapid intensification (RI) from analyses of an exceptionally favorable environment & with the aid of newer hurricane models (HAFS) & Google DeepMind, NHC was able to skillfully predict Melissa's RI days in advance.

Concerned for the area around Black River, Jamaica for surge flooding, apart from catastrophic wind, rainfall flood impacts.

SLOSH, wind wave model combination suggests over 6 feet of above ground inundation or higher possible in areas shaded in orange and red.

#Melissa unfortunately is still intensifying. A 9am EDT Tropical Cyclone Update indicates that winds are up to 180 mph, with an estimated minimum pressure of 896 mb.

You can see how GLM lightning has 📈 in the past hour, encircling the eye, with eye WV temp still increasing!

In honor of Dr. Jenni Evans's legacy in tropical meteorology, I warmly welcome your participation in the upcoming session @ametsoc.org's 37th Conf. on Hurricanes & Tropical Meteorology:
"From Tropics to Extratropics: Exploring Cyclone Dynamics in Current & Future Climates in Memory of Jenni Evans"
🧵

Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data from the current recon mission into Melissa shows that the vortex is vertically stacked up to 15 km w/ the upshear/NW quad being the strongest.

This is about as favorable of a vortex structure as you’ll see for rapid intensification

Plots from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

It's getting tough to put into words how bad this looks for Jamaica. Here's my futile attempt this evening.

12z 25 Oct Google DeepMind Short-Term Ensemble Forecast through 42h.

12z 25 Oct ECMWF 36h Forecast with 850-200 mb steering (shaded), direction (streamlines), 925 mb relative vorticity (yellow shading), and sea level pressure (black contours). Illustrating the WSW deep layer steering associated with Melissa.

12z 25 Oct ECMWF Area Average Profile, illustrating the northerly flow at 500-300 mb, and overall 850-300 mb steering to be slowly WSW.

5pm 25 October Tropical Cyclone Discussion of Hurricane Melissa from the National Hurricane Center.

One thing I am watching closely tonight is the short-term motion of #Melissa.

Google DeepMind ensemble has been pretty consistent in showing a WSW motion beginning tonight, & this appears supported by the ECMWF deep-layer steering-flow as the hurricane becomes vertically deep. Diagnosed below ⤵️

000WTNT33 KNHC 241738TCPAT3 BULLETINTropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 13ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025200 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...MELISSA REORGANIZING AND POISED TO INTENSIFY SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS......LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDESEXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THEWEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...15.6N 74.4WABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICAABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITIMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with theDominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince* Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with theDominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince* Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours beforethe anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 74.4 West. Melissa is drifting toward the east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northeast and north at a continued slow motion is expected to begin this afternoon and tonight. A westward turn is forecast on Saturday and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week and could be near eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast today, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------Key messages for Melissa can be found in the TropicalCyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO headerWTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area inHaiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend orearly next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to beginin Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica later this weekend. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain toportions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday,with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12inches are expected across the rest of southern Haiti and thesouthern Dominican Republic. Additional heavy rainfall is likelybeyond Monday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forwardspeed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant,life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expectedin the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, withcatastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southernHaiti. Across portions of northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, andwestern Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected through Monday.Flash and urban flooding will be possible. Flooding impacts willlikely increase across western Jamaica next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated withMelissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm TotalRainfall Graphic, available athurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast ofJamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical stormconditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potentialrisk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the southcoast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion andlarge forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly howhigh the storm surge could reach. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portionsof Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next severaldays. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Melissa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

Tropical Storm Melissa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 13a
...MELISSA REORGANIZING AND POISED TO INTENSIFY SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA A...
Additional Details Here.

There are two noteworthy things about the latest NHC forecast for Melissa:

1. This is the first time NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification at day 3-4 lead time

2. If latest forecast trends hold, this forecast could still be a significant intensity underestimate

Anvil lightning near Wichita Falls, TX.

Went out for lightning a few days ago and got this nice flash. Still working on fixing my settings, but this was a huge success for me!

This project took forever, but I'm glad I have it functional now. Well functional enough to generate 50 images before eating all of my RAM. Enjoy the shabby True-Color and pseudo-5 minute flash density.

Let's see if this one actually plays..😵‍💫

Just spent all day writing/borrowing code to create this loop for an MCS over the gulf. I believe the yellow and red points are from miscalculations from scan point to degrees lat/lon, but I see this as a win. Took my computer 24 minutes to make this though and files weighed ~7.3 gbs. Too much imo

My dad sent me these pictures of big time ice accumulation on radio towers in Cedar Hill, Tx. Being downstream of a mesoscale β lake effect snow band is likely the culprit. Fascinating and uncommon imagery in north Texas.

Ever wanted to watch tornadogenesis in model space?

I’m excited I’ve finally been able to work on research. I’ve enjoyed my times as a GTA, but I can tell I also have a passion for this too.

HOPEFULLY this video doesn’t compress super bad

Had an awesome trip to Denver and learned some helpful lessons while there! Namely: Don't attempt to hike an 8000' mountain in the winter without spikes and winter clothes, especially if you're from Texas and have not gotten used to the altitude.

The sun setting on an absolute beauty of a closed low over the Great Lakes. It's imagery like this that get me stoked for GOES-19 data to become more readily available.

This is a shot in the dark, but does anyone know if the time from the GOES-R data from AWS is correct? Example time, image, and UCAR radar image closest in time. I'm using ABI-L2-CMIPC data as a proxy for longwave IR. If anyone has any experience with this data, your input is greatly appreciated!

Making simple mistakes coding reminds me of when I would cry while doing PEMDAS wrong in elementary school

Oranges are underrated fruit

USAGI is weakening right now (probably undergoing an EWRC), but at it's peak, it was undoubtedly a Super Typhoon. Really wish they had some sort of reconnaissance, because that pressure could be much lower than the JTWC's estimated 915 mb.

Starting to see the 00Z deterministic models (namely the GFS/ICON) favoring this northern area of low-level vorticity just off the coast of Haiti. While they suggest this wave will continue to be strung out, a further north launch point keeps it over waters for longer.

That was meant to be a gif lol. The orange L is where I analyzed the MLC, red dashed (pen) is about where the EW is according to the NHC 12Z, red dashed (highlighted) is an extension of the ITCZ, and yellow arrows represent the sfc flow.

I don't think there's enough attention on this disturbance south of Hispaniola. Notable SE and SW sfc winds, as well as an mid-level center over Isla Beata, DR. While it's still likely an open wave at this point, it'll be interesting to see how fast it can organize later this week.

Introductory post since I would like to part ways with twitter (X). My name is Adam Clark, currently an undergrad at Texas A&M University studying meteorology. I'm a lightning enthusiast, amateur TLE photographer, and would like to find my people on here.