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Posts by Julia A. Rivera Drew

NIH is reworking social and behavioral study sections including *eliminating SSPA and SSPB*. There will be one new study section Population Dynamics and Health.

Bad news since SSP originally received so many applications, they needed 2 difft study sections to process them.
:( #demography

1 month ago 7 3 0 0
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In “Cohort Prevalence Estimates Are Sensitive to Prebaseline Mortality,” Molly Rosenberg et al. show that “prebaseline mortality patterns can meaningfully impact health outcome measures in cohort studies” & so represent a potential source of bias. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

2 months ago 4 1 0 0
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

2 months ago 644 222 30 52
A Missing Piece: The 2025 U.S. Government Shutdown and the Current Population Survey – Use It for Good

The CPS 2025 November monthly data are now available on IPUMS CPS 🎉 CPS data collection and processing were among the many U.S. government programs and services interrupted by the October 1-November 12, 2025 U.S. government shutdown. Learn more: blog.popdata.org/2025-u-s-gov...

3 months ago 6 8 0 0
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U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics.

1/ The BLS has published an FAQ about the November Current Population Survey (CPS data).

bls.gov/cps/methods/...

(Recall, in his press conference Powell mentioned "technical" issues with some November surveys.)

4 months ago 11 3 1 2
Post image NextGenPop scholars at Cornell in 2023

NextGenPop scholars at Cornell in 2023

NextGenPop scholars at the University of Wisconsin Madison in 2022

NextGenPop scholars at the University of Wisconsin Madison in 2022

NextGenPop is a 2-week, in-person, on-campus summer experience for undergrads aiming to increase the diversity of the population field and nurture the next generation of scholars. The summer 2026 session will be hosted by the University of Minnesota! Application deadline February 5. buff.ly/IO6P52W

4 months ago 10 3 1 0
Estimates | California Department of Finance

Sorry, one more follow up. My colleague recommended that you use the California county population estimates by race/ethnicity, which will include all California counties. dof.ca.gov/forecasting/...

5 months ago 2 0 1 0
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There are a few more things you might try. Email us at ipums@umn.edu.

5 months ago 1 0 1 0
IPUMS NHGIS search result page for county geographic level + Hispanic Origin topics. A short list of search results for the 2023 ACS is shown.

IPUMS NHGIS search result page for county geographic level + Hispanic Origin topics. A short list of search results for the 2023 ACS is shown.

IPUMS NHGIS (www.nhgis.org) would get you this for 2023 and 2024 is coming soon.

5 months ago 2 0 1 0

The newest NHIS data are now available through IPUMS!

8 months ago 3 1 0 0
CDC issues 15 calls for comment | Federal Data Users Today's Federal Register includes many calls for comment on CDC data collections, including the following: - National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System -

I should note that this is just one of several dozen calls for comment about health data that have come out over the past week. You can find a running list here:
federaldataforum.prb.org/discussion/c...

10 months ago 6 2 1 1

Check out this blog post describing our hands-on IAPHS workshop from fall 2024 featuring the NHIS LMF data harmonized by IPUMS. @ipums.bsky.social

10 months ago 8 1 0 0
A screen shot of the National Couples' Health and Time Study webiste at DSDR, with the language "This repository is under review for potential modification in compliance with Administration directives." at the top circled in red.

A screen shot of the National Couples' Health and Time Study webiste at DSDR, with the language "This repository is under review for potential modification in compliance with Administration directives." at the top circled in red.

I just noticed that NCHAT's @icpsr.bsky.social website has a new disclaimer "This repository is under review for potential modification in compliance with Administration directives." I am not sure what this means, but I wanted to let everyone know.

1 year ago 11 7 2 0

That's amazing, what a great outcome!

1 year ago 6 0 0 0
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The Contribution of Drug Overdose to Educational Gradients in Life Expectancy in the United States, 1992–2011 - Demography Since the mid-1990s, the United States has witnessed a dramatic rise in drug overdose mortality. Educational gradients in life expectancy widened over the same period, and drug overdose likely plays a...

I've always thought Jessica Ho's piece on the contribution of opioid overdoses to the education gradient in life expectancy was a clever way of getting around imperfect mortality data by combining data from two different sources. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

1 year ago 10 0 2 0
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🌟Please share this great funding opportunity! 🌟Apply by 1/24/25 for IRP's National Dissertation Award For Research On Poverty And Economic Mobility 2025–2026. For more info on this $25,000 award & to view an informational webinar, visit: www.irp.wisc.edu/national-dis...

1 year ago 3 5 0 2
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IPUMS DHS Climate Change and Health Research Hub Understand population health in its environmental context

...and the Climate Change and Health Hub using DHS data: tech.popdata.org/dhs-research...

1 year ago 1 0 1 0

Exercises using the IPUMS DHS data: www.idhsdata.org/idhs/exercis...

1 year ago 2 0 1 0
IPUMS Research Awards | IPUMS The IPUMS Research Awards honor outstanding research using IPUMS data to advance or deepen our understanding of social and demographic processes. We look for papers that use innovative approaches, com...

Check out the IPUMS Global Health annual research award winners for 2018-2023 www.ipums.org/impact/ipums...

1 year ago 2 0 1 0

Plans to link the 1950 full count to HRS, WLS, NSHAP, and Kaiser's ACT are documented here: assets.ipums.org/_files/ipums...

1 year ago 1 0 2 0
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The Validity and Reliability of Retrospective Measures of Childhood Socioeconomic Status in the Health and Retirement Study: Evidence From the 1940 U.S. Census - PubMed Researchers who rely on retrospective indicators of childhood SES from the HRS should be aware of their measurement properties. They are measured with error, and that error modestly attenuates estimat...

You may want to check out the 1940 full count census data that has already been linked to records in the HRS.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35263760/
hrs.isr.umich.edu/sites/defaul...

1 year ago 5 1 1 0