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#Hungary 🇭🇺

UMich exp lowest this century

My bad. Better 0.196

THanks

looks like 0.22

Two decimal places core CPI forecasts

Quite the reversal. White House now using Epstein to distract us from the Iran mess

Thank you

They are generally good at crude passthrough. It's a key input for TIPS and inflation swaps

Many 1%s as well. Not much dispersion from the professional set

CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save of us

Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88

Also, it’s tax season here in the States. That usually means liquidity dries up a bit as everyone sets aside cash to pay Uncle Sam.

Between tomorrow's CPI and today’s 30-year auction, Treasuries are feeling the heat. That ceasefire euphoria has already faded - 30s are back north of 4.90%

Trump is an unreliable narrator. Traders are better off listening to the underlings.

I think that is the best explanation. It has the feel of bad positioning

Eventually it will get cleared up but trying to figure out here and now

It's a fragile truce so I am surprised how confident the UST rally has been overnight. I guess taking cues from Trump who seems to have his own favored take on developments

They are now recovering from the early session lows, though the long end continues to lag ahead of this week’s 10y and 30y Treasury auctions

Trump’s Iran ultimatum is basically the only story for bond traders today. USTs have seen a volatile morning, swinging back and forth in reaction to the news and moves in crude oil prices.

Donald Trump: "you can't put nuclear weapons in the hands of a lunatic!"

USTs not reacting to this but it is notable

Ugly ISM services employment gauge

Yeah. Assuming no ceasefire or deal, the weekend hedging will be a factor.

But even before that number hits, USTs have another hurdle to clear: long-end auctions, which are looking like a serious headwind.

This is a high-stakes week for the bond market. The recent spike in crude prices - fueled by the conflict in Iran - will show up in March’s inflation data. The consensus on Wall Street is a headline print of 1%.

and bartender

You make my day :)

Some weakness underneath the headline. Cycle lows AHE

Probably best to just average the past two months. Feb -133K. March 178. Avg 22.5K