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Posts by Santa Fe Institute

Crossroads Democracy — A Panel Discussion
Crossroads Democracy — A Panel Discussion YouTube video by Santa Fe Institute

Catch up on SFI’s first Community Lecture for 2026, Crossroads Democracy Panel.

The panel featured Jenna Bednar, Samuel Bowles, Hahrie Han, Katrin Schmelz, and David Krakauer as moderator. It explored the history, economics, psychology, and politics of democracy.

Watch on SFI’s YouTube channel:

3 days ago 11 6 2 0
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Looking at AGI through the lens of natural intelligence Human intelligence involves many dimensions: we interact socially, learn quickly from other people, and determine how tasks fit together, as well as physically interact with and intervene in the real ...

As part of SFI’s broader Nature of Intelligence project, a recent working group explored AGI, or artificial general intelligence, from the perspective of cognitive science, asking how current definitions of AGI overlap with how researchers understand natural intelligence.

4 days ago 24 4 2 0
The Development of Imagination
The Development of Imagination YouTube video by Santa Fe Institute

In this SFI Seminar, @andrewshtulman.bsky.social of Occidental College challenges the idea that imagination is strongest in childhood. He argues that children’s imaginations are constrained by what they know, and that learning something new is key to expanding the imagination.

5 days ago 8 1 0 0
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A simple baseline for AI forecasting in machine learning In a recent paper, SFI Complexity Postdoctoral Fellow Yuanzhao Zhang and co-author William Gilpin show that a deceptively simple forecasting strategy can outperform several leading machine learning forecasting models. Their method, called context parroting, relies on short stretches of time-series data (or context). As it moves through the time series, it scans for similar patterns or motifs that appeared earlier in the sequence, and uses those patterns to predict what might come next.

A simple baseline for AI forecasting in machine learning.

In a recent paper, SFI Complexity Postdoctoral Fellow Yuanzhao Zhang and co-author William Gilpin show that a deceptively simple forecasting strategy — context parroting — can outperform several leading machine-learning forecasting models.

1 week ago 13 4 1 0
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Crossroads Democracy – A Panel Discussion At the start of the 20th century, only about three percent of the world’s population was subject to democratic rule. By the year 2000, democracy had become the most common political system globally. U...

Reserve your free tickets for SFI’s Crossroads Democracy Panel on April 14, 7:30 pm at the Lensic.

What can science tell us about democracy’s history, current retreat, and future? Join Jenna Bednar, Samuel Bowles, Hahrie Han, Katrin Schmelz, and David Krakauer for a panel discussion.

1 week ago 5 0 1 0
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The latest issue of SFI's monthly e-newsletter is now available. Catch up on recent research, events, and news from the Santa Fe Institute.

Read it here:
mailchi.mp/santafe/sfi-...

Subscribe to receive future issues:
santafe.us11.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=...

2 weeks ago 2 0 0 0
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Constantino Tsallis to co-chair the 2027 Nobel Symposium on Statistical Mechanics SFI External Professor Constantino Tsallis (Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Físicas) will serve as co-chair and synthesis lead of the 2027 Nobel Symposium in Physics, “Beyond Boltzmann: Complexity, Mem...

SFI's Constantino Tsallis will serve as co-chair and synthesis lead of the 2027 Nobel Symposium in Physics, “Beyond Boltzmann: Complexity, Memory, and Non-Additive Entropies.”

The symposium will bring together leading experts to consolidate decades of work in generalized statistical mechanics.

2 weeks ago 11 2 0 0
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How novelty arrives: Review of “Origins of the New” The built and natural worlds around us are full of examples of diversity from small, incremental evolutionary changes. Keyboard designs offer slightly different key spacing and press stiffness; two sp...

The world around us is full of examples of diversity from small, incremental evolutionary changes. But sometimes, something entirely new appears. In his new book, The Origins of the New, SFI's Doug Erwin asks how radically different entities come to be, and how the world produces true novelty.

2 weeks ago 23 5 0 0
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Working group asks, what’s the benefit of a brain? The brain runs on about 15 to 20 watts, less than most light bulbs, but has still managed to evolve a voracious appetite for energy. In humans it accounts for only about one-fiftieth of weight but con...

The brain consumes about 20% of our daily total. So what makes that cost worth it?

A recent SFI working group examined how the energetic cost of intelligence is balanced against its evolutionary advantages, and began charting a mathematical foundation for understanding that tradeoff.

3 weeks ago 17 3 2 1
The Brain in the Social World
The Brain in the Social World YouTube video by Santa Fe Institute

In this SFI Seminar, Carolyn Parkinson from the University of California, Los Angeles, explores how human thought and behavior unfold within social networks, and how the demands of navigating enduring social bonds may shape the brain.

Watch Parkinson’s SFI seminar:

3 weeks ago 13 3 0 0
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Measuring irreversibility in gene transcription Living cells are fundamentally nonequilibrium systems, meaning they constantly spend energy through seemingly one-way, irreversible processes, such as transcribing DNA into RNA, to keep life going. Bu...

Living cells are nonequilibrium systems, constantly spending energy in seemingly one-way processes like transcribing DNA into RNA, to keep life going.

In a new paper, SFI's James Holehouse develops tools to study that irreversibility across thousands of genes, revealing interesting patterns.

1 month ago 20 3 0 1
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Arguing for a complex adaptive power grid The grid is in crisis, facing coinciding pressures including electrification, decarbonization, enormous demand from data centers, and grid technology updates like digitalization and artificial intelli...

A recent SFI working group explored how a complex adaptive systems approach could help build a more resilient, adaptive power grid — bringing together researchers and practitioners to examine how electrification, decarbonization, data centers, and digital technologies are reshaping the system.

1 month ago 10 2 0 0
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Mark Newman Awarded 2026 SIAM John von Neumann Prize SFI External Professor Mark Newman (University of Michigan) has been awarded the 2026 John von Neumann Prize from the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics for his contributions to the theore...

SFI External Professor Mark Newman (University of Michigan) has been awarded the 2026 SIAM John von Neumann Prize, for his contributions to the theoretical and algorithmic foundations of network science and their application to real-world systems.

1 month ago 33 6 0 0
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Review: Nonesuch, by SFI Miller Scholar Francis Spufford In SFI Miller Scholar Francis Spufford's new genre-spanning novel, Nonesuch, the fate of the world rests on one woman’s ability to interpret and manipulate complex systems as she navigates the interre...

Francis Spufford, SFI’s newest Miller Scholar, blurs fiction and nonfiction in works like Red Plenty and Cahokia Jazz. In his new novel Nonesuch (out Mar 10), the fate of the world rests on one woman’s ability to interpret and manipulate complex systems linking politics, economics, WWII, and magic.

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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Laurent Hébert-Dufresne receives Young Scientist Award SFI External Professor Laurent Hébert-Dufresne (University of Vermont) has been named the 2026 recipient of the Young Scientist Award for Socio- and Econophysics by the German Physical Society (DPG). ...

SFI's Laurent Hébert-Dufresne (@lhd.bsky.social) is the 2026 recipient of the Young Scientist Award for Socio- and Econophysics by the German Physical Society (DPG). Honoring “outstanding original contributions that use physical methods to develop a better understanding of socio-economic problems.”

1 month ago 28 2 1 1
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What does it mean to compute? Some computers are easy to spot. Artificial, human-built computers like those found in smartphones and laptops are abstract dynamic systems with observable computational elements like input, output, e...

Some computers are easy to spot — smartphones, laptops, the machines we build. But many natural systems — cells, brains, even turbulent fluids — carry out computations too.

A new paper by SFI’s David Wolpert and Jan Korbel explores these computations encoded in natural dynamic systems.

1 month ago 40 13 1 1
Giving Groups Control Over the Rules of the Game, in Simulation, in the Lab, and in the Wild
Giving Groups Control Over the Rules of the Game, in Simulation, in the Lab, and in the Wild YouTube video by Santa Fe Institute

In this SFI Seminar, Seth Frey from the University of California, Davis, shares observational, experimental, and modeling research on how social systems can change in unpredictable ways, especially when power within a system shifts to power over the system.

Watch Frey’s seminar:

1 month ago 19 5 0 0
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New book by SFI Press: The Economy as an Evolving Complex System IV, a two-volume collection of contributions from leading scholars examining the unprecedented complexity of the global economy.

You can download PDF chapters for free, or purchase physical copies here: sfipress.org/books/eecs-iv

1 month ago 27 8 0 2
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Reassessing the scientific method Is the scientific method really the best approach to learning about the world? A new paper in Collective Intelligence applies the scientific method to itself, finding that some common strategies that ...

How can we best learn about the world? A new paper by SFI's Marina Dubova (@mdubova.bsky.social) and coauthors applies the scientific method to itself, finding that some common strategies that scientists consider gold standards for designing experiments could perform worse than random choice.

2 months ago 27 10 0 0
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SFI External Professor Santiago Elena elected to the American Academy of Microbiology SFI External Professor Santiago Elena has been elected as a fellow of the American Academy of Microbiology, joining 62 other fellows in the class of 2026, each selected for their contributions in the ...

SFI’s Santiago Elena has been elected a fellow of the American Academy of Microbiology.

He joins 62 fellows in the 2026 class. His work explores how RNA viruses adapt to hosts and manipulate cellular resources. Since joining SFI in 2008, he has organized several working groups on virus evolution.

2 months ago 43 10 0 0
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From cells to companies: Study shows how diversity scales within complex systems A new study in PNAS introduces a mathematical model that quantifies how different systems, from cells to organizations, diversify and specialize as they grow. The study finds that while systems vary i...

A new study by SFI and MIT researchers shows that as systems grow, from cells to governments, the pace of adding new functions steadily slows. Though they vary in how much they invest in novelty, once new functions exist, subsequent growth follows a universal pattern known as sublinear growth.

2 months ago 31 6 1 2
Screenshot of the January 2026 issue of the Santa Fe Institute's e-Parallax newsletter.

Screenshot of the January 2026 issue of the Santa Fe Institute's e-Parallax newsletter.

The latest issue of SFI's monthly e-newsletter is now available. Catch up on recent research, events, and news from the Santa Fe Institute.

Read it here:
mailchi.mp/santafe/sfi-...

Subscribe to receive future issues:
lnkd.in/e-jhAzCA

2 months ago 6 1 0 0

At SFI, Kemp hopes to leverage the richness of urban-growth data by capturing patterns of behaviors among different groups at various scales, from the individual to the population level.

@jordantkemp.bsky.social

2 months ago 3 0 0 0

Welcome SFI Program Postdoctoral Fellow Jordan Kemp!

A country’s GDP or a city’s population size represents organizational and individual decisions over time — statistics useful for policymaking, but which hide the complexity stemming from regional variations in choice.

2 months ago 9 0 1 0
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Final week to apply for SFI’s 2026 immersive, summer programs in complexity science:

Apply by Feb 4, 2026

CSSS and GWCSS : www.santafe.edu/engage/learn...

Journalism Fellowship: santafe.edu/journalism-f...

2 months ago 14 9 0 0
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Disentangling the Boltzmann brain hypothesis: Memory, entropy, and time We trust our memories because they feel natural, and we trust time because it seems to flow in only one direction. Physics, however, allows for stranger possibilities that challenge our intuition. In...

In a new paper, SFI researchers examine the Boltzmann brain, a thought experiment that raises fundamental questions about memory, entropy, and time. The work clarifies how arguments for or against these ideas depend on assumptions about the past that are not fixed by physical laws alone.

2 months ago 25 8 2 1
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SFI President David Krakauer joins Jim Rutt, SFI Trustee Emeritus and Distinguished Fellow, on The Jim Rutt show for a wide-ranging conversation on intelligence, evolution, scientific risk-taking, how we come to understand complex phenomena, and much more.

www.jimruttshow.com/david-krakau...

2 months ago 8 1 0 0
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SFI’s GWCSS program is designed for Ph.D. students pursuing thesis research in computational social science. Participants work closely with peers and faculty to advance their own research and take part in collaborative complexity-based problem solving.

Apply by Feb 4, 2026
santafe.edu/gwcss

3 months ago 12 3 0 0
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Study: Does polygyny really exclude vast swaths of men from marriage? A new study co-authored by SFI External Professor Laura Fortunato (University of Oxford), challenges a long-standing claim that polygynous marriage, where men have multiple wives, creates a surplus of...

A new study co-authored by SFI External Professor Laura Fortunato @anthrolog.fosstodon.org.ap.brid.gy (University of Oxford) challenges a long-standing claim that polygynous marriage, where men have multiple wives, creates a surplus of men with no prospect of ever marrying.

3 months ago 9 3 0 0
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Advance your research and expand your network at SFI's 2026 CSSS program with lectures, application-focused seminars, and team projects. Participants gain experience in transdisciplinary collaboration and explore real-world questions through complexity science.

Apply by Feb 4, 2026
santafe.edu/csss

3 months ago 14 4 0 1