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Posts by Kyle Tharp

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💡 Voters care about corruption a lot!

With that in mind, Democrats should ask themselves whether choosing *Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer* as their leaders is putting their best foot forward on that front🙃

Just a thought: www.chaoticera.news/p/is-anti-co...

10 hours ago 4 0 1 0
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Is anti-corruption the Democrats' secret weapon in 2026? Voters are more animated by corruption than almost any other issue heading into the midterms. But Democrats may have a credibility problem.

Voters are more animated by corruption than almost any other issue heading into the midterms. But Democrats may have a credibility problem.

www.chaoticera.news/p/is-anti-co...

11 hours ago 0 1 1 0
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👀 NEW: Over the past two weeks, right-wing outlets and personalities have published dozens of stories, clips, segments, and pod episodes criticizing California First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom 🧵

1 week ago 0 1 1 0
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MAGA’s latest target: Gavin Newsom’s wife Right-wing media outlets and MAGA influencers are aggressively resurfacing old footage of the California “First Partner.”

Read the full report + more in this week's newsletter

www.chaoticera.news/p/maga-s-lat...

1 week ago 0 1 0 0
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As a result of the right-wing media onslaught, Google Search interest in California’s First Partner has skyrocketed, reaching its peak on April 7th.

1 week ago 0 0 1 0

It seems to have started from anonymous right-wing accounts on X circulating old clips of Siebel Newsom speaking at conferences and public events, where she often gives rambling, word-salad answers that seem tailor-made to provoke conservative outrage.

x.com/mazemoore/st...

1 week ago 0 0 1 0
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👀 NEW: Over the past two weeks, right-wing outlets and personalities have published dozens of stories, clips, segments, and pod episodes criticizing California First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom 🧵

1 week ago 0 1 1 0
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The biggest political YouTube channels of 2026 (so far) New data shows Turning Point USA, More Perfect Union, Nick Shirley, and Tucker Carlson saw huge growth in Q1 2026

Full report with more charts & analysis is just for All-Access subscribers 🔒
www.chaoticera.news/p/the-bigges...

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0
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The biggest partisan-leaning political YouTube channels in Q1 👀

📈 Fastest growing: TPUSA, More Perfect Union, Nick Shirley, Tucker Carlson, Shawn Ryan

📺 Most viewed: FOX, MSNOW, MeidasTouch, Brian Tyler Cohen

📊 Biggest: Rogan, FOX, Daily Show, Vox

2 weeks ago 3 1 1 0
A chart showing the subscriber sizes of political youtube channels in Q1 2026, via the Chaotic Era newsletter.

A chart showing the subscriber sizes of political youtube channels in Q1 2026, via the Chaotic Era newsletter.

You're worried about the Nate Silver twitter account chart.

I'm worried about this chart of biggest political youtube accounts (courtesy of @kylewilsontharp.bsky.social).

We are not the same (we're kind of the same).

2 weeks ago 3 4 2 0

haha and to be clear, the Nate Silver twitter chart was mine too, he just doesnt do original work anymore :p

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
Kyle Tharp: You've written and spoken a lot recently about this unique political moment for the Democratic Party-the mismatch between fighting 2026's battles with 1996's leaders, tools, and visions. Where is that mismatch most damaging right now - messaging, strategy, messengers, or candidates?
Amanda Litman: All of the above. On vision, Democrats have been running a moderate, centrist vision since 1992, if not longer. People act like the progressive left has taken over the party, but Joe Biden was president. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are the leaders in Congress. A lot of the frustration with progressives is really just that people get yelled at online.
The deeper issue is that the normal way of doing things didn't work for people, and we can't go back to it. The old argument was basically: nibble around the edges and make things a little better. It's not hard to see why that's not compelling to someone who feels like they'll never be able to buy a home.

Kyle Tharp: You've written and spoken a lot recently about this unique political moment for the Democratic Party-the mismatch between fighting 2026's battles with 1996's leaders, tools, and visions. Where is that mismatch most damaging right now - messaging, strategy, messengers, or candidates? Amanda Litman: All of the above. On vision, Democrats have been running a moderate, centrist vision since 1992, if not longer. People act like the progressive left has taken over the party, but Joe Biden was president. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are the leaders in Congress. A lot of the frustration with progressives is really just that people get yelled at online. The deeper issue is that the normal way of doing things didn't work for people, and we can't go back to it. The old argument was basically: nibble around the edges and make things a little better. It's not hard to see why that's not compelling to someone who feels like they'll never be able to buy a home.

Then there's messaging. How many members of Congress can actually do a normal-sounding interview? Not many. Too many of them don't understand the language of the internet, which makes it hard for them to speak it.
And then there are tactics. The old idea was that you could just raise a bunch of money, buy TV and online ads, and win. We've seen that's not true. You can't sell a product with money alone. People aren't consuming information that way anymore, and they don't trust advertising the same way.
Organic social matters more, and paid media should be part of a broader strategy.
Candidates are brands who are also people, and that brand's story has to be consistent.
That requires a good person at the center of it.
Candidate quality-the idea that who the person is, the story they have to tell, and how they communicate-really matters. If you're not thinking about the person, you're not solving the actual problem of a campaign. Too much political discourse treats the candidate as a fixed variable, and then focuses on ads or tactics as the only things you can change.

Then there's messaging. How many members of Congress can actually do a normal-sounding interview? Not many. Too many of them don't understand the language of the internet, which makes it hard for them to speak it. And then there are tactics. The old idea was that you could just raise a bunch of money, buy TV and online ads, and win. We've seen that's not true. You can't sell a product with money alone. People aren't consuming information that way anymore, and they don't trust advertising the same way. Organic social matters more, and paid media should be part of a broader strategy. Candidates are brands who are also people, and that brand's story has to be consistent. That requires a good person at the center of it. Candidate quality-the idea that who the person is, the story they have to tell, and how they communicate-really matters. If you're not thinking about the person, you're not solving the actual problem of a campaign. Too much political discourse treats the candidate as a fixed variable, and then focuses on ads or tactics as the only things you can change.

Our argument from the beginning has been that if you work downstream long enough, you can change who runs in the first place. You get someone like Mallory McMorrow running for Michigan state senate in 2018, and by 2026 she's a national U.S. Senate candidate. You get someone like James Talarico starting in the Texas state house, helping flip a seat, and becoming a serious statewide candidate.
The idea that who the person is matters is now part of the vocabulary. We still don't invest nearly enough in it. People get mad at the groups or consultants, but the person accountable is the candidate. I'm telling you: you can change the candidates. We have changed the candidates.

Our argument from the beginning has been that if you work downstream long enough, you can change who runs in the first place. You get someone like Mallory McMorrow running for Michigan state senate in 2018, and by 2026 she's a national U.S. Senate candidate. You get someone like James Talarico starting in the Texas state house, helping flip a seat, and becoming a serious statewide candidate. The idea that who the person is matters is now part of the vocabulary. We still don't invest nearly enough in it. People get mad at the groups or consultants, but the person accountable is the candidate. I'm telling you: you can change the candidates. We have changed the candidates.

I talked with @kylewilsontharp.bsky.social about all things @runforsomething.net - & in particular, why I think the Democratic Party cannot use the tools of 1996 to win in 2026. www.chaoticera.news/p/what-winni...

3 weeks ago 18 3 3 0
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What winning candidates have in common right now On National Run for Office Day, Run for Something’s Amanda Litman explains what kinds of candidates are breaking through — and why the old playbook is failing.

NEW: As @runforsomething.net enters its 10th election cycle, I spoke to @amandalitman.bsky.social about Democrats' recent string of downballot wins and what it takes to run for office in 2026 🇺🇸

www.chaoticera.news/p/what-winni...

3 weeks ago 8 4 0 0
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X is boiling journalists’ brains

3 weeks ago 426 102 20 8
Most-Viewed Partisan-Leaning Political Accounts on X

Most-Viewed Partisan-Leaning Political Accounts on X

Sorry folks, X is the political mainstream now. If you're not on X, you're missing out on the central cultural figures of American life - Gunther Eagleman, End Wokeness and Catturd

h/t @kylewilsontharp.bsky.social www.chaoticera.news/p/for-republ...

3 weeks ago 88 27 14 6
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beep beep boop boop Karen

3 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

you forgot autism capital and johnny maga

3 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

Sky News did a 9 month study published last fall.

October 29, 2025

HOW ELON MUSK IS BOOSTING THE BRITISH RIGHT

“For nine months, Sky News' Data and Forensics team has been investigating whether X's algorithm amplifies right-wing and extreme content. It does.”

3 weeks ago 23 12 1 0

Why billionaires cannot exist, a chart

3 weeks ago 14 3 1 0
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For Republicans, the political influence of X is greater than ever Conservatives dominate the most-viewed political accounts on the platform. It's become a major problem for Democrats.

Read the full report here:

www.chaoticera.news/p/for-republ...

3 weeks ago 51 13 3 2
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So what should Democrats do about it? 🤔 Engage on the platform that may be rigged against them, or leave altogether, only to reach a smaller, more homogenous audience of liberals?

3 weeks ago 82 12 87 63
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The political effects of X’s feed algorithm - Nature Among users initially on a chronological feed, 7 weeks of exposure to X’s algorithmic feed in 2023 shifted political attitudes and account-following behaviour in a more conservative direction compared...

It makes sense: A study in Nature released last month found that X’s feed algorithm “promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media.”

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

3 weeks ago 214 58 4 1
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NEW: Data shows out of the top 100 most-viewed X accounts posting about politics in February 2026, 74 were conservative-leaning and 26 were liberal-leaning. 📉

Keep reading for why...

3 weeks ago 230 85 26 54
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The organizing model that failed the Democrats After record-breaking outreach in 2024, Democrats still lost. The problem isn’t effort—it’s an outdated playbook that no longer reaches real voters.

Democratic organizing programs used to be a force to be reckoned with in American politics, reaching millions of voters at scale.

Now, a volunteer comes into an office for a phone banking shift to call voters, and 98% of their time spent is wasted.

www.chaoticera.news/p/the-organi...

4 weeks ago 2 4 0 0
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NEW: Takeaways from Democrats' 2024 organizing autopsy in today's newsletter, via Greta Carnes 👇🚪☎️

www.chaoticera.news/p/the-organi...

4 weeks ago 3 3 0 2
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Is this group taking over the Democratic Party? They’re older, whiter, and college-educated, and they’re some of the party’s most visible and vocal members.

Older, whiter, college-educated Americans may not be a majority of the Democratic Party, but they are increasingly dominating its money, media, and messaging strategies.

www.chaoticera.news/p/is-this-gr...

1 month ago 0 2 0 0
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On Facebook, it now pays to post about politics One top political creator earned over $250,000 in January from Meta’s content monetization programs

NEW: Once averse to politics, Facebook is now paying political creators thousands of dollars a month to post on the platform. One influencer I spoke to earned $268,000 in January alone. 🤯

www.chaoticera.news/p/on-faceboo...

1 month ago 5 1 0 0
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The Texas Senate race through the eyes of a mega-influencer Carlos Eduardo Espina, a popular Spanish-speaking social media creator, has boosted Texas Senate candidate James Talarico for months.

👀 ICYMI: I wrote about the Talarico campaign's embrace of one super-surrogate for the Texas Latino community—Carlos Eduardo Espina—and his massive reach among audiences online. 👇

🔗 www.chaoticera.news/p/the-texas-...

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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The Texas Senate race through the eyes of a mega-influencer Carlos Eduardo Espina, a popular Spanish-speaking social media creator, has boosted Texas Senate candidate James Talarico for months.

NEW: Ahead of today's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Texas, I spoke to Carlos Eduardo Espina about the race and his unique role as part super volunteer, part secret weapon for @jamestalarico.bsky.social 👇

www.chaoticera.news/p/the-texas-...

1 month ago 2 2 1 0
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The Texas Senate race through the eyes of a mega-influencer Carlos Eduardo Espina, a popular Spanish-speaking social media creator, has boosted Texas Senate candidate James Talarico for months.

Will it pay off?

“It shows a different way campaigns can work with creators,” Espina says. “Most treat creators as mouthpieces, like saying ‘This is the message, amplify it,’ with not much back and forth. [With Talarico] it’s both ways.

Read more:
www.chaoticera.news/p/the-texas-...

1 month ago 3 1 0 0