Posts by Jason Bailey
Billions of lost recurring revenue from a much-lower state individual income tax than the last recession will make a willingness to use those reserves that much more important. 7/
When a downturn inevitably comes, lawmakers must be willing to draw down the remaining funds as needed to keep critical state services from being cut at a time they are needed more than ever. 6/
And this drawing down of the rainy day fund has happened *before* a rainy day has hit. Unemployment is still relatively low at 4.3%. But when a recession hits, budget deficits can grow dramatically. 5/
But the room to spend generously on lawmaker-identified local projects and programs has run out because the surpluses were always temporary and were driven by federal pandemic stimulus spending and COVID-induced inflation. 4/
Lawmakers have prioritized spending down these reserves on earmarks in the last couple of budgets. In '25-'26, they spent $2.9 billion. In '27-'28, they're spending $1.8 billion on 330 earmarks, a number that grew through the process including on the session's final day. 3/
Whereas the rainy day fund contained $5.2 billion or 33% of annual revenues as recently as 2025, it will fall to an estimated $2.3 billion or 14% by 2028. 2/
The huge Budget Reserve Trust Fund balance that the legislature built up using COVID-related surpluses will diminish dramatically because of the spending on local projects and programs contained in the new budget. 1/
Small changes to the state budget are being made today. ~30 more earmarks are added using rainy day $, universities lose bond $ but gain some of cut operating funds, & $67M previously earmarked for state worker wage compression gets diverted. Updated here: kypolicy.org/budget-agree...
The gas price spike adds to an affordability crisis that is already Kentuckians' top concern. Find out more, including what to do about it, here: kypolicy.org/kentucky-gas...
The spike in gas prices from the U. S. war in Iran is costing Kentuckians $175 million a month. That's more per driver than all but 3 states. 1/2
The General Assembly is passing the budget agreement today. Reflecting the lost revenue from recent income tax cuts, it cuts & freezes funding for most services and underfunds current Medicaid benefits by $691 million. The initial @KyPolicy analysis here: kypolicy.org/budget-agree...
The recent run-up in gas prices is costing Kentuckians $175 million a month. That's $46.69 each month for every Kentuckian, the 4th-worst among states.
Billionaire-inspired bill would separate KY workers from their rights kentuckylantern.com/2026/03/27/b...
The Senate budget eases some cuts proposed by the House by spending $ that the House put into the already huge rainy day fund. It also includes a 13th check for retirees. But it includes less in K-12 SEEK than the House budget and continues 7% cuts for many agencies.
When the state refuses to cover the full cost of public school transportation, districts are forced to take money from students and teachers to cover the gap.
The House budget continues this trend, underfunding school transportation by $93m in each of the next two years. The Senate should fix this.
NKU projects $1.9M deficit in 2027 amid enrollment declines, proposed state funding cuts
@haleyparnell.bsky.social
kentuckylantern.com/2026/03/05/n...
When it comes to education, the House budget that passed last week was an improvement on the initial draft. But an estimated 82% of school districts would still receive lower inflation-adjusted state SEEK payments in 2028 than they did in 2026. kypolicy.org/hb-500-house...
For more than 20 years, the legislature has suspended its own law and funded school transportation at a lower amount than required. That continues in the House budget that passed last week, but it can and should end this session. New @kypolicy.bsky.social analysis in the link below
House A&R committee just passed a new version of the budget that removes the cap on health insurance but still contains substantial cuts and frozen funding while adding $604M to an already huge Budget Reserve Trust Fund. See the @KyPolicy analysis here: kypolicy.org/hb-500-state...
Who is hurt by the health insurance cap in HB 500? Rural counties are more likely to have KEHP members in their community, in part because school systems and public employment make up a larger share of the jobs. Link to new analysis below
Those payments are what Congress is cutting now through HR 1, putting 35 rural hospitals at risk of closure. And kicking people off Medicaid expansion with paperwork barriers, which HR 1 does & HB 2 in the leg. session would make worse, mostly just denies federal money to KY. 2/2
State Medicaid costs in KY are not unusual & are not ballooning. Growth in spending comes from payments lawmakers have enacted to help hospitals with reimbursements--which don't come out of the General Fund. 1/2 kypolicy.org/state-budget...