"But you don’t need to be some sort of game theory maven to appreciate that the small chance of a catastrophic outcome can outweigh the overwhelmingly likely but less than 100 percent chance of a trivial gain."
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Grateful to @umisr.bsky.social for highlighting our new AER paper. The big finding: migration doesn't drain the home economy — it builds it up.
"(..) the USA is not the preferred partner of choice, nor are any of the traditional European defense firms—it is the Ukrainians. Let that sink in. Ukraine is now a world leader in one of the most important strategic capabilities all states face."
"Europe does not need permission to help Ukraine restore its borders. It needs the will. There is a basic rule that applies to nations as much as to people: pour your energy into the things you can affect," writes Academic director at the University of Amsterdam Andrew Chakhoyan in his op-ed.
One area of unequaled Ukrainian expertise?
Shooting down killer drones🔥
This is a skill Ukrainian warriors wish they never had to learn — but mastered it anyway — because they had to.
You can help them work their magic here:
u24.gov.ua/sky-defense?...
Let's not make this "NATO's war".
The figure shows the evolution of the total stock of tall building heights (km) covering tall buildings above 55 metres (13–14 floors). Land-use regulations, including height limits, affect housing affordability and urban productivity. This column analyses over 11,000 urban agglomerations and 300,000 tall buildings to explore the effect of height restrictions on welfare. Vertical growth enhances land efficiency, reduces commuting, and boosts worker welfare. While higher density can increase housing demand and rents, the associated gains more than offset the costs. The debate about housing supply should not focus only on horizontal expansion. Allowing cities to build upward may be just as important for accommodating urban growth, improving access to opportunity, and preserving valuable land.
@ahlfeldt.bsky.social, Nathaniel Baum-Snow, & Remi Jedwab analyse over 11,000 urban agglomerations to show that vertical growth of cities enhances land efficiency, reduces commuting, and boosts worker welfare.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
New RFBerlin Discussion Paper!
Fenella Carpena & Simon Galle study how technical change affects workers across occupations. The mechanisms behind adjustment matter.
đź”— www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/u...
Let him sweat it out by himself.
What a paragraph.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
We need help to open the Strait that is already open to help protect it from the enemy we actually already defeated 100%
6/ If Trump paid any attention to the Ukraine War he would have noticed how warfare has changed. But he didn’t. And he blundered.
Worse, the Gulf states are running out of interceptors to stop Iranian missiles and drones - meaning that soon more oil sites will be vulnerable.
Feedback welcome -- thank you!
🎙️ Guest lectures by the amazing Andreases: Kostøl and Moxnes.
📝 Assessment: a 2000–3000 word research proposal.
External candidates can apply here: lnkd.in/en92M4cf
3/3
We’ll build a practical toolbox for linking modern labor-market theory to data—covering skill-biased change, task-based models, self-selection/reallocation, Ricardo–Roy trade frameworks, and immigration supply–demand interactions (with some Matlab-based model exercises).
2/3
There's been a bit of fuss recently about technology, trade & migration shocks.
Well, I'm looking forward to teaching a short PhD course on how these shocks affect labor market inequality.
📍 May 18–22, 2026 at BI (Oslo)
⏱️ Format: 18 hours
Syllabus: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/95d63...
1/3
Europe should do both: integrate more where feasible (India, Mercosur, Trans-Pacific,...), while simultaneously preparing to strike back hard against malevolent actors.
No need for panic, but neither for naivety.
Meanwhile destroying any lingering hope of maintaining a solid Western alliance.
One option is retaliation.
Another option is to ignore this bluff/BS and send as many exports as possible through non-tariffed EU/EEA members. (Sorry, Brexiteers.)
Clearly, Dear Leader spent more time writing this post than thinking through the policy implications.
A related view:
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-stupid...
The French Army just announced that it will be part of the military force that goes to Greenland
Germany is also part of it, on top of Sweden
If the US invades Greenland, it means that two NATO nuclear powers will be fighting against each other
What is currently happening is an escalation management plan
The goal is to deter the United States from attacking, in the same way that stationing troops in the eastern flank of NATO is aimed at deterring Russia
Europe and Canada forces are not amassing troops to repel an US invasion
European tripwire forces make a military land grab of Greenland drastically more costly to the Trump admin:
Harming European forces will force Europe to strongly retaliate economically and destroy any defense cooperation.
In turn, this may trigger a backlash both in Congress and in the US military
The second China shock
Some people in the Trump administration may benefit from a clear visualization of what "Nothing" means.
Today is one of those days when I should have taken my own advice. Flooded with rage tweets on the other platform. Garbage way to communicate that only brings out the worst in people. All dunks, no conversation. Complete waste of time trying to engage there www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...
Market statistics from EconJobMarket.org.
Good thing there's Europe.
This paper shows: the 2022 energy crisis led to record global profits for fossil fuel companies. The US gained the most, with claims on US$301 billion, exceeding its US$267 billion investment in low-carbon energy. Half of profits went to the top1%, mainly through stock ownership
BI is hiring PhD candidates in economics.
We offer:
- a friendly and collegial department
- strong faculty support during your PhD
- access to very rich Norwegian microdata
- a competitive salary
- a strong track record in PhD placements.
Please share #EconSky 🙏🙏
bi.easycruit.com/vacancy/3539...
an experience I think about a lot: I was visiting a class in DC Jail shortly after Kim Kardashian visited and had brought in her camera team. I relayed critiques of her "performative", "virtue signalling" acts I had heard on the outside. the response was somewhere between a shrug and an eye roll
