Line chart showing atmospheric CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory from 1958 to 2024. A light blue sawtooth line shows raw monthly values, reflecting the seasonal cycle of plant growth. A dark blue smooth line shows the seasonally adjusted record, rising from 315 ppm in 1958 to over 426 ppm in 2024. A dashed red curve shows the super-exponential fit, with the instantaneous growth rate rising from 0.27%/yr in 1960 to 0.64%/yr in 2024, more than doubling over the period of the record.

1/ Why is atmospheric CO₂ accelerating faster than fossil fuel emissions are growing?

The answer is buried in the data, and it's more worrying than most people realise.

A thread. 🧵👇

"Climate change is not this slow moving thing that will evolve smoothly - it is now."

SCRI Executive Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke with We Don't Have Time after the UK National Emergency Briefing.

6 front pages of articles about climate risk connected by a red line.

1/ For those of us keeping an eye on systemic #climate risks, these aren’t difficult dots to connect.

I find it downright frightening. We need to brace for impacts and spring into preparedness now.

This thread outlines 6 key papers and what we can do in response. ⬇️🧵

Britain’s food supply ‘at risk of catastrophic failure by 2030’ A report written before the 2024 election says climate change, habitat loss and geopolitical instability are a danger to food security — and it has been ignored

Laurie Laybourn, executive director of the think tank Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, said the report was not a “prediction that collapse is inevitable” but a “warning that on the current trajectory, under current policies, collapse becomes a real possibility”.

www.thetimes.com/article/3812...

2/ Meanwhile, new reporting by the Times, quoting our Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social, highlights internal UK government analysis showing that Britain’s food supply is ‘at risk of catastrophic failure by 2030’. Papers like the above show severe security threats which are not being addressed.

Spain is a role model in weathering Iranian oil shocks The country’s speedy rollout of renewables has put a lid on electricity bills

Renewables mean that "Spain looks well placed in two ways. Its speedy rollout of renewables has put a lid on electricity bills — but that should help bolster its political independence too. Good reason for Europe’s green brigade to charge ahead."

www.ft.com/content/19f2...

"Just one energy shock of the scale that we saw in 2022 costs about the same as it would cost to get the whole country to net zero."

SCRI executive director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social tells LBC wars will keep having an outsized impact on UK without urgent improvements in food/energy resilience.

Hybrid roundtable 18th March at @exeter.ac.uk "Economic Policy to Navigate Climate Risks: from Tipping Points to Green Swans . I will be talking about climate & social tipping points (including derailment risks) Register 👇
forms.office.com/pages/respon...

Thanks to all those who came to Kairos the other night and for a wonderful discussion on how to make sure climate action isn’t derailed by climate consequences

Check out our Strategic Climate Risks Initiative research on derailment risk at scri.org.uk/derailment

Derailment Risk: A Climate Blind Spot with Laurie Laybourn Tuesday March 10th Doors & drinks at 6.30pm; Talk starts 7pm As the world heads deeper into the new climate reality, how will we maintain our ability to act? It's often assumed that our agency will only grow as climate impacts escalate: That as climate consequences worsen, they will serve as a series of "wake up calls" that reinforce climate action. But the opposite can also happen. This is called Derailment Risk - the risk that climate consequences instead undermine climate action, derailing the world from pathways towards the least worst outcomes. Laurie Laybourn is Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, a think-

think-do tank focused on the new climate reality, and a fellow at both Chatham House and the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter. In this talk, followed by plenty of time for discussion, Laurie will share his research into Derailment Risk and suggest ways that we might act to prevent it. The evening will include a break for a one-pot vegan supper. Kairos, 84 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4TG Doors open at 6.30pm for drinks. Talk starts at 7pm. £8 Frequent Visitor and Supporter Members; £15 Standard (includes Community Members); £10 Struggling financially; £8 Under 30s; £20 Supporter. Food complimentary. (To find out more about membership, visit our Membership page.)

This is something I have often wondered about - to what extent can we overcome tendencies to respond poorly to crises?

At Kairos tonight:

Derailment Risk: A Climate Blind Spot with @laurielaybourn.bsky.social share.google/Qxl6wiSe6vsA...

Derailment Risk: A Climate Blind Spot with Laurie Laybourn - Kairos Tuesday March 10th, 6.30 for 7pm As the world heads deeper into the new climate reality, how will we maintain our ability to act? It's often assumed that our agency will only grow as climate impacts e...

In London on Tuesday night this week?

Join me at Kairos on Tottenham Court Road to talk about how we can maintain our agency to act on climate change even as its impacts escalate

Doors and drinks at 1830, talk starts at 1900

Grab a ticket 👇

www.kairos.london/event/derail...

Chart showing the exponential collapse of the lag, extrapolated to 2.0C. Reference points show 10, 20 and 30 year lag scenarios projecting 2033, 2043 and 2053 respectively.

1/🌡️ Global warming passed a milestone on 17th Nov 2023 that barely made the news

For the first time ever, the world's daily average temperature was 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels

Here's what the data says about when that becomes the annual norm, & whether it's coming sooner than anyone expects🧵

"If pandemic threat assessment and preparedness was as fragmented, we would be scandalised."

It was great talking to Ellen for this excellent piece in @prospectmagazine.co.uk about climate risk and the threat of AMOC collapse specifically

Essential reading!

Climate Change Won't End the World. This Could. YouTube video by PBS Terra

The world is in the literal and figurative storm of an Earth system crisis

Like sailors who end up in a storm, we need a strategy for navigating *within it* so that we have a chance of *getting out*

How? Check out my latest episode with @pbs.org's Weathered👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4pS...

Its a cycle. Actions-> Results-> Beliefs -> Actions

We need more stories that help people learn from what’s working.

Not just what’s going wrong.
Not just what “has to happen by 2050.”

Real examples of action that others can see, understand & build on.

Here's a 🧵on advice & tips for sharing #climate stories that actually inspire action.

What's more, since finishing this piece, Chico Harlan has been abruptly sacked by the Washington Post, along with many other colleagues, in a wider sign of how the blinders are being pulled down on our ability to navigate the literal and figurative storm of climate threat.

Chico's piece also covers how cuts to the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center are hobbling AMOC research, which is exactly the wrong move, meaning Iceland, the US, and wider world will fly even more blinded into the threat.

A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping This report is the outcome of the Nordic Council of Minister’s sponsored workshop arranged in October 21-24, 2025 in Helsinki and Rovaniemi, Finland as part of Finland’s council presidency theme resil...

This comes off the back of the recent Nordic Council of Ministers report on the AMOC threat.

www.norden.org/en/publicati...

He said Iceland will incorporate the risks of the AMOC into national strategy for dealing with hazards. That plan, scheduled to be finalized by 2028, will help Iceland determine what steps to prioritize — and how to pay for them.

It explores the latest Icelandic moves to confront the profound security threat posed by AMOC change

As their climate minister says in the piece: we are oblige to "listen to the best available science. We believe it is not a sign of pessimism, or alarmism, but a sign of realism”

Why this country declared an ocean current collapse a national security risk The disruption of a current that carries heat north from the tropics would make much of the world hotter, while turning Iceland into “one giant glacier.”

“[AMOC collapse] is a scenario of global tumult, driven by countries with large populations pushed from the climate regime they're used to. It’s a recipe for serious, persistent global destabilisation”

Great talking with @chicoharlan.bsky.social for this piece
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

Starting now 👇

BusinessGreen Spotlight on Carbon Markets: What carbon market reforms mean for businesses and investors This interactive webinar will bring together leading experts to explore the imminent reforms to the EU and UK Emissions Trading Scheme and the development of new carbon credit schemes across the aviat...

Register 👉 webinars.businessgreen.com/how-to-map-y...

We're in a new climate reality - but how can we best operate in it?

Join me and a stellar panel - including @emmahowardboyd.bsky.social - for this @businessgreen.bsky.social webinar to explore how best to map climate risk and build resilience

📅 Tomorrow (Tuesday 10th Feb)
⏰ 1200-1300 GMT

Scientists: 'Garbage' Models Underestimate Risk of Economic Collapse From Climate Crisis Experts warn of a growing gap between real-world climate risk and economic analysis, and urge immediate action to prevent catastrophic warming.

A new report highlights the "growing gap between real-world climate risk and the economic analysis used to guide policy, supervision, and investment," while also warning that ambitious action "cannot await perfected models."

Suppressed climate report warned of mass migration and nuclear war Unabridged document said disappearing forests and rivers drying up could drive people to Europe and lead to conflict in Asia

Back in the Autumn, No.10 blocked the publication of a report into the risks the UK could face if climate change causes ecosystems around the world to collapse. On Tuesday, after an FOI request, it published the report. But it turns out, that wasn't the full version. www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

9/ On the charge of "fear-mongering":

#Climate science does not choose alarm as a strategy. The scientific assessment of climate risk has intensified because the evidence has intensified, while global emissions continue to rise.

The latest @ipcc.bsky.social report is very clear on this point:

#Thrutopia…

Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings

Lol, Zillow tried to rate the climate risks facing individual properties. The real estate industry *hated* it, precisely because it worked -- it made selling risky properties more difficult. So they rebelled & Zillow caved.

Don't look up!

Some things that inspired us And some huge thank yous

Read the piece: strategicclimaterisks.substack.com/p/some-thing...

You can listen to all the episodes - and read the other bonus posts - at overshootpod.com

And all the episodes will soon be on YouTube. Subscribe at www.youtube.com/@OvershootPod