Last day to submit an abstract to EMS...

At least one person is super excited about the prospect of counterfactual reanalysis-based storylines! Discussing many potential uses within the energy sector today 🌬️☀️⚡

vikki-thompson.github.io/images/ReBAS...

Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes!

📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections

lnkd.in/efWVVCYX

Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March.

Advertisement poster for EMS Annual Meeting session. Text: 'Attribution of extreme weather events and their impacts (UP1). Abstract deadline March 27th. Convened by Tamara Happe, Vikki Thompson. Paolo Scussolini, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Sanne Muis, and Doris Vertegaal.

Working on impact attribution of extreme weather events? Submit to our session at the EMS Annual Meeting in Utrecht in September!

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2026/sess...

@tamarahappe.bsky.social @sannemuis.bsky.social

⚡9 days left to submit your #EGU26 abstract, if you work on weather and climate hazards consider our session: www.egu26.eu/session/56049

@tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social @karinvdwiel.bsky.social @regclimo.bsky.social

Two exciting postdoc positions available!

Historical windstorms - working with two insurance companies to explore UK wind risks: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...

Extreme event storylines - working as part of a EU collaboration on event attribution: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...

Where have the greatest humid heat extremes been observed? Where is statistically likely to see unprecedented extremes? New study led by @regclimo.bsky.social investigates:

Storm Boris (2024) in the current and future climate: a dynamics-centered contextualization, and some lessons learnt Abstract. The response of mean and extreme precipitation to anthropogenic global warming stems both from warming of the troposphere and dynamical changes in the large-scale circulation, especially upw...

On a smaller spatial scale analogues would likely be more similar in terms of impacts - as long as good enough analogues exist. Including more/better key circulation features also helps - as nicely shown by @jriboldi.bsky.social in egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

But circulation analogues are still useful - they can assess changes in large-scale dynamics of similar events.

And we have other methods - such as storylines - which are more suited to assessing changes in rainfall intensity of extreme events. 🧵2/2

Can simple circulation analogues detect observed changes in extreme rainfall?

In many cases, no. Rainfall is too complex and circulation alone cannot predict it. 🧵1/2

🌧️ New paper 🌧️
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

We are very delighted to have @karinvdwiel.bsky.social and @regclimo.bsky.social as invited speakers in our #EGU26 session on NH11.2 Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards!

Consider to present your fantastic work with us!!

@nh.egu.eu
@pik-potsdam.bsky.social

Droughts cause a wide range of impacts - this image shows a dry riverbed in France.

Looking for a #PhD in #ClimateExtremes?
We are advertising a project attributing causes of recent #droughts using counter-factual storylines.
Based in #Edinburgh, working with Andrew Schurer, me, @gabihegerl.bsky.social, & @edhawkins.org
tinyurl.com/5n7b52fr

The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution Over the past 20 years, extreme event attribution has developed rapidly, providing a wide range of methods to attribute weather events – from unconditioned probabilistic to strongly conditioned story...

☀️🌧️ Extreme weather events are increasing 🌀🌤
Our new paper discusses the range of extreme weather attribution methods available and how we should be combining them to improve confidence in our attribution statements

with co-authors: @marylouathanase.bsky.social & Shirin Ermis
doi.org/10.1002/wea....

👻🎃 It's that time of year again, time to start thinking about #EGU26!
🔥🌧️🌀 Our session on Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards is now open for abstract submissions 🔥🌧️🌀

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...

@tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social

Experiencing extreme heat first hand today in Cantabria, and the 5 year old is enjoying quizzing me on a topic I am happy to discuss in detail - but I'm not sure if these could be fire clouds on the horizon?

Europe could face weeks of 40°C heat in current worst-case scenario A perfect storm of conditions priming the atmosphere for extreme heat could result in devastating droughts and deadly temperatures lasting for weeks across Europe

Europe's current climate could produce a 'mega heatwave', feat. more than a month of +40C temps & intense drought

Extra scary fact: The worst-case heatwaves occur predominantly after another extreme heatwave. In other words, rolling waves of deadly heat

www.newscientist.com/article/2491...

My workplace for the past few years: KNMI radar tower and offices

This week marks my last few days working at KNMI, after a fantastic few years exploring new methods with amazing colleagues and collaborators it's time for the next challenge. First, a holiday ☀️⛰️🚴‍♂️

Mechelen overstroming

Nieuw onderzoek laat zien dat de overstromingen in Limburg in 2021 nog veel ernstiger hadden kunnen zijn. Als het weer nét iets anders was verlopen, hadden de buien langer kunnen duren of op een andere plek kunnen vallen, met mogelijk grotere impact. 🔗 www.knmi.nl/over-het-knm...

With coauthors @hancloke.bsky.social @erichfischer.bsky.social Dim Coumou, Urs Beyerle, & Joy Ommer

@knmi.nl

Showing the rainfall of 14th July 2021 (upper left) and 5 alternative scenarios derived from a climate model, conditioned to the atmospheric circulation patterns of the observed event. Similar to fig.6 of https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02386-y

📣 New paper:
💧💧💧 In July 2021 record breaking rainfall hit western Europe, we use ensemble boosting to explore different plausible storylines. These show it could have rained for longer, or over a larger area, or in a different place. Are we prepared?

doi.org/10.1038/s432...

Last night, for the second night running, temperatures didn't drop below 20°C in Utrecht 🇳🇱.

🥵🌃🌡️

Due to human activity the chances of such heat are increasing, taking us ever closer to the story told in: www.unseenheat.com

@stichtingcas.bsky.social @timokelder.bsky.social

Map of European daily maximum temperatures for (1st July 2025) tomorrow's weather in (left) a present day climate and (right) a 1.5K warmer climate.

🌡️☀️ It is hot in Europe this week – but how much hotter would it be in the future? Using a weather model we can simulate tomorrow’s weather in a warmer climate. Tomorrow Paris is forecast to reach 37°C, in a world 1.5°C warmer the same weather patterns could lead to temperatures over 40°C.

A selfie at parkrun wearing a climate striped tshirt

#ShowYourStripes day on a #parkrun day made it easy to pick out a shirt.

Climate change impacts sports. Extreme heat, happening increasingly often, forces events to adjust or cancel with little notice. Climate change impacts everyone.

🌧️🌍💧 Our new paper, led by Geert Lenderink, shows recent European extreme rainfall events have localised climate change responses beyond the expected Clausius-Clapeyron rate – potentially enhancing flash floods in a warmer climate.

Read it here: doi.org/10.1016/j.wa... @hayleyjfowler.bsky.social

After a fantastic set of oral presentations the posters sessions in hall X3 now, perfect way to end your #EGU25!

Coming up soon at #EGU25, come along to chat about event attribution at lunchtime in room 2.43

Science poster, available online: https://vikki-thompson.github.io/images/EGU25_poster_thompson.pdf Photo also features a 5 year old.

Today we present an online tool for identifying circulation analogues, now available on Climate Explorer. I'll be at my #EGU25 poster, at X5.171, from 1615 (or after 1800 with my small assistant).

climexp.knmi.nl/analoguesfor...

At #EGU25 this morning, hear me talk about ensemble boosting of extreme rainfall using only the thousand most common English words - PICO spot 3 at 11.08

I'm at #EGU25 this week, and today at 1400 I'll be discussing the western European July 2021 extreme rain in this session:

Leaflet of the EGU25 splinter meeting. Title: Networking session: comparing methods for extreme event attribution. Illustrations: plots from various attribution methods. Time and location: Friday 02.05, 12h45-13h45, room 2.43.

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon!

We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them:
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social