Overall, probably the biggest divergence in policy among parties that we’ve seen in a long time.
@futureeconscot.bsky.social will be publishing a detailed assessment of manifestos soon, covering all things just transition. So stay tuned for that!
Lib Dems: Fairly restrained, some good stuff on energy, planning and skills. Some sensible noises on tax reform, through mild.
Some worthwhile reforms in there, but nothing too bold or disruptive.
Greens: A bonanza of policies. Strong proposals on jobs, energy tax reform, and land - as well as a host of social stuff. Lots of nice things
But the idea you can fund all this without increasing income tax doesn’t seem credible. Would benefit from fewer, costed policies.
Tories: £4bn tax cuts funded by cutting benefits for disabled + children, and unrealistic efficiencies. Not credible.
A lot of faith in supply-side reforms, which seem optimistic. Also abandoning net zero, risking related opportunities. Reform-Lite.
Scottish Labour: Some good stuff on industrial strategy, energy, skills, and reforming the development landscape. Serious proposals.
Fiscal plans seem questionable though. Appear to think higher growth will magically pay for everything. Starmer found out this doesn’t work.
Reform: Claim £4bn of regressive tax cuts would pay for themselves. Simply not credible - would decimate public services
Growth strategy amounts to abandoning a major growth area (net zero) to double down on a fading industry. Virtually no detail. Agree with them on LBTT though!
SNP: Smart framing on cost of living, although not much new that would help in the short term.
Some good reforms, and some less good. Weak on industrial strategy, little on tax, and a lot of restating existing policy. Very steady-as-she-goes. Fiscal sums seem somewhat optimistic
Finally finished reading the manifestos for the Scottish election.
Some initial reflections on the economic side 🧵
Price controls exist in many sectors of the economy today, and work quite well.
This doesn’t mean the SNP’s proposals are right, but the idea that they never work isn’t right
Reform: “Austerity is a myth because nominal spending rose since 1999”
Incredible
“It’s time to face facts: nature is a public good and meeting targets will require coordinated public investment. We can’t waste any more time waiting for private finance that simply isn’t going to materialise.”
@lmacfarlane.bsky.social on Aberdeen’s pullout from ScotGov’s nature restoration PPP
I’m doubtful this will happen, and it doesn’t seem particularly well-designed.
But it’s clear the cost of living crisis will force parties into far bolder territory than they’ve so far been willing to go.
EXCLUSIVE in @theguardian.com: a £100m nature finance deal collapsed - & MSPs weren’t told.
Featuring our work on nature restoration and a new guest blog, it’s clear: private investment isn’t going to deliver the nature restoration Scotland needs.
Read coverage: www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...
NEW: Private finance won’t fix Scotland’s nature crisis - only public investment can.
As featured exclusively in today's @theguardian.com, private investment isn’t going to deliver the nature restoration Scotland needs.
Read our new guest blog by Tom Gegg: www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/459-pr...
🚨 Election Spotlight: Eradicating Child Poverty in Scotland
Scotland has made real progress but 110,000 more children must be lifted out of poverty to meet 2030 targets.
Scotland has shown that ambitious policy can bring child poverty down.
But action needs to be stepped up in the next Parliament to meet targets.
Our new analysis ⬇️
🚨NEW: Scotland’s ‘social contract’ keeps 65,000 children out of poverty
Child poverty would be significantly higher if Scotland’s poverty rate matched the UK’s.
But there’s more work to do ⬇️
The latest oil shock has led to a resurgence of North Sea petro nationalism. I’ve written for @the-breakdown.bsky.social on the illusion of plenty behind Reform, Tory and SNP claims that red-green wreckers are sabotaging our energy security by blocking drilling. www.break-down.org/north-sea-na...
Scotland’s renewable energy should benefit all of us. We’re backing the movement for:
♻️ Community-owned renewables
🍃 A public stake in offshore wind
🏭 Renewable manufacturing based in Scotland
Join the #OurPower movement 👉 bit.ly/Our-power
Scotland is one of the least densely populated places in Europe. Not a single “small boat” has landed here.
This is utterly absurd.
🗣️ The first in our new ‘Election Spotlight’ series.
We explore the gap between Scotland’s climate ambition and delivery — and what the next Parliament must do to close it.
Alexander Dennis’s decision to close its Falkirk factory is a huge collective failure.
As I wrote last year, it’s what happens when public money is used to back overseas rivals over Scottish industry:
We welcome the @scottishgreens.org pledge to replace Scotland’s Air Departure Tax with a Frequent Flyer Levy, as our recent paper set out.
Here’s why it makes sense 🧵⬇️
The world energy shock is coming — it will deepen inequality in ways we've seen before. Our new
@newstatesman1913.bsky.social piece argues that without urgent government action, the Strait of Hormuz crisis will ripple through our economies and rip apart our societies. Here's why. 1/
If we are to protect and expand Scotland’s distinct social contract, more revenue will need to be raised.
Our latest @futureeconscot.bsky.social paper sets out how 👇
The idea that people decide to relocate purely to save income tax was always a myth.
In reality other things matter far more: jobs, public services, infrastructure, etc.
The data only goes to 2023, and so it doesn’t include the latest round of income tax changes.
But so far there’s no evidence that Scotland’s more progressive tax system is driving people away.
If anything, it’s the opposite.
This isn’t just about people — it’s about money too.
This inward migration has increased taxable income flowing into Scotland by ~£350m since 2018, boosting tax revenues.
These are total figures, but maybe we’re still seeing an exodus of high earners?
Not true: in every year since divergence, more additional / top rate taxpayers have moved to Scotland than have left.
In the latest year, 6,500 more taxpayers moved to Scotland from rUK than left.
Net migration to Scotland has been positive every year since it first diverged from UK tax in 2018 — totalling ~22,000 taxpayers.