The Bayesian Workflow book is coming!
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/04/16/t...

Finally finished up a blog post on estimating Bradley–Terry models using brms.

www.m-flynn.com/posts/2025-1...

Amortized Bayesian Workflow

Chengkun LI, Aki Vehtari, Paul-Christian Bürkner et al.

Action editor: Tom Rainforth

https://openreview.net/forum?id=osV7adJlKD

#mcmc #generative #amortized

"Here's a Health to the Company" - Moya Brennan and Kevin Conneff: youtu.be/IdIJP3-pzy0 Clannad (and The Chieftains) were the soundtrack of my Irish-American childhood.

Tomorrow is the last day to submit an abstract for @keystonesymposia.bsky.social meeting Beyond Antibiotics: Emerging Strategies Combating Bacterial Infections.

It is going to be an amazing meeting and we have a few slots left!
keysym.us/KSBeyondAntibiotics26 #KSBeyondAntibiotics26

More details about the Bayesian Workflow book and case studies now available on the book web site avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... (but you still need to wait a bit for the book)

Marker gene phylogeny of ammonia oxidizing archaea genomes in the GlobDB annotated with their prevailing environmental categories

We now provide environmental metadata for the GlobDB genomes!
🖥️🧬🦠

More info here:
globdb.org/news

🧵

Scientific Publishing: Rethinking how research is reviewed and published Taking a radical new approach to the publication process resulted in eLife losing its impact factor, but authors, reviewers, editors and funders support the journal and its efforts to reform scientifi...

Scientific publishing: Rethinking how research is reviewed and published

Review of how the loss of impact factor affected submissions at eLife - uneven drop across countries, but generally holding up remarkably well and shows a new model is possible

elifesciences.org/articles/110...

Embracing Bayesian Methods in Clinical Trials This Perspective discusses the importance of the US Food and Drug Administration’s draft guidance on the use of bayesian methods in clinical trials because it underscores its commitment to modernizing...

Celebrating the draft FDA Bayesian guidance document with our perspective in @jama.com. Honored to co-author w/Jack Lee (MD Anderson), Lisa LaVange (past director of Office of Biostatistics FDA CDER&president of ASA),& my Bayesian inspiration Sir David Spiegelhalter jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

The Iran War Is Another Reason to Quit Oil What if the drone is to warfare as the solar panel is to energy?

The drone is to warfare as the solar panel is to energy: small, cheap, harder to centralize and control.
We're seeing the sudden rise of both technologies

www.newyorker.com/news/the-led...

ArviZ: a modular and flexible library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models Martin et al., (2026). ArviZ: a modular and flexible library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models. Journal of Open Source Software, 11(119), 9889, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.09889

New paper out in JOSS:

“ArviZ: a modular and flexible library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models”

It covers the design principles behind ArviZ and the motivation for the refactoring in 1.0. joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21...

Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

Washington measles cases expected to rise this summer Cruises, summer trips and World Cup crowds could accelerate measles spread, experts say.

UW’s diagnostics guru, Dr Alex Greninger, interviewed by Axios for for this story on measles in WA state…

www.axios.com/local/seattl... #IDSky

2/2 The paper was so well reported that it has a special place in the history of #statistics providing data for Student's famous paper ‘The probable error of a mean’ a few years later.
www.jameslindlibrary.org/articles/cus...
#HistoryOfMedicine #ClinicalTrials

SparseNUTS: Preconditioning hierarchical models in HMC with a sparse “Laplace approximation” at the marginal mode
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/12/s...

Downscaling daily solar radiation in the Canary Islands with GAM Researcher in climate science at MBG-CSIC

Very cool example of spatial GAMs by @drxeo.eu on bsky (not bridged, as far as I can tell):

dominicroye.github.io/blog/canary-gam-downscal...

#gam #statistics #rstats #rspatial

Interactive resources With the power of OJS and Quarto, I’ve created a few interactive websites to illustrate trickier statistical concepts when teaching. Check them out (and adapt and copy as much as you want!) With links to three different websites (accessible at the main link in the post)

Finally got around to adding fancy links to my different interactive teaching websites for showing things like p-hacking, p-value interpretations, and (still-in-draft-form) DAGs at www.andrewheiss.com/teaching/ #rstats #QuartoPub #statsky

Love this South Jersey accent deep dive. A great watch... after you're done your homework. Thanks, @evanedinger.bsky.social

Announcing the third keynote speaker for StanCon 2026 We’re happy to share the third keynote speaker for StanCon 2026! StanCon 2026 will take place 17–21 August 2026 in Uppsala, Sweden. Kaitlyn Johnson, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Jo...

🔥 StanCon 2026 third keynote announced 🔥
Kaitlyn Johnson,
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
More information here
discourse.mc-stan.org/t/announcing...
@mc-stan.org

Group B Streptococcal Disease | NEJM Group B streptococcus commonly colonizes the human gastrointestinal and genitourinary tracts and is the single most common bacterial cause of invasive infection among newborns in the United States....

New review of Group B strep from the NEJM…

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.... #IDSky

New research article

Serotype-specific pneumococcal invasiveness: a global meta-analysis of paired estimates of disease incidence and carriage prevalence

www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

#IDSky #ClinMicro #Streptococcus #IPD #OpenAccess #OA

Diffusion Models in Simulation-Based Inference: A Tutorial Review Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-b...

Diffusion models & flow matching are reshaping simulation-based inference.

Thus, we wrote the first tutorial review on diffusion-based SBI. For an overview or a deep dive, check it out and let us know what you think:

arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/2512.20685
Web: bayesflow-org.github.io/diffusion-ex...

The 80% power lie
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/19/t...

Sam Abbott (LSHTM): Composable probabilistic models can lower barriers to rigorous ID modelling YouTube video by Juniper Consortium Seminars

I had a great time talking at the Juniper seminar series last week about composable infectious disease models. Some very good discussion after the talk. The recording is now up!

youtu.be/FQYOqGnbJWA?...

The fifth annual Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition is open!
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/11/t...

Bluesky Map Interactive map of 3.4 million Bluesky users, visualised by their follower pattern.

I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!

bluesky-map.theo.io

I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail

StanCon 20206 International Conferene on Bayesian Inference and Probabilistic Programming 17-21 August, 2026 Uppsala, Sweden

Three weeks time to submit contributed talk abstract to StanCon 2026! You can also submit a poster abstract early, if you need to make early travel plans. There will be travel and accommodation support for students, too!

More information about submitting at www.stancon2026.org/abstracts/

The Crime of Witness | Fintan O’Toole Renée Good and Alex Pretti were murdered for daring to interfere with the Trump administration’s efforts to normalize abductions and state violence.

Fintan O’Toole @fotoole.bsky.social on the murders of Renée Good and Alex Pretti https://go.nybooks.com/4bmNB4F

Alfred Hitchcock's 1942 Saboteur (Scene) YouTube video by Molarkie

Watched #Saboteur last night -- #Hitchcock captured the internal battle between democracy and fascism in 1942. A reminder that American fascists were fighting against democracy even during WW2: youtu.be/-rtlkILRmEQ

from what I can see, the video shows a beating followed by an execution.