I investigate whether the effects of UI extensions are different for workers exposed to higher levels of local labor market concentration, a potential source of employer market power. I exploit measurement error in state unemployment rates that led to quasi-random assignment of UI durations in the U.S. during the Great Recession. Using matched employer-employee data from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, I find that UI extensions lengthen nonemployment durations by one week and cause economically meaningful but not statistically significant increases in earnings. The UI-earnings effect is significantly lower at higher levels of concentration, while there is no difference in the UI-duration effect. The lower UI-earnings effect is driven by the extremes of the distribution of concentration. My results suggest that match improvements from UI are attenuated at higher levels of concentration.

Table 5: Nonemployment Duration – Measurement Error Approach In each column, the dependent variable is the length of nonemployment spells measured in quarters (top-coded at 12). UI error is the difference in potential UI benefit duration using the real-time and revised state unemployment rate in the quarter before the nonemployment spell onset (measured in quarters). Local labor market fixed effects are commuting zone-by-industry (4-digit NAICS level) fixed effects. Worker characteristics include fixed effects for gender, education, race and ethnicity, age, total labor market experience, and prior job tenure. Sample sizes and estimated values have been rounded for disclosure avoidance. Standard errors clustered at the state level in parentheses: significant at *10%, **5%, and ***1%.

Unemployment insurance (UI) extensions slightly lengthen unemployment spells. The positive UI-earnings effect is attenuated at higher levels of concentration.

Unemployment Insurance Extensions, Labor Market Concentration, and Match Quality Unemployment insurance (UI) extensions slightly lengthen unemployment spells. The positive UI-earnings effect is attenuated at higher levels of concentration.

New Census Working Paper: "Unemployment Insurance Extensions, Labor Market Concentration, and Match Quality" by David Wasser www.census.gov/library/work...

We study the role of victim reporting in the production of public safety. We examine the Secure Communities program, a crime-reduction policy that involved police in detecting unauthorized immigrants and increased deportation fears in immigrant communities. We find that the policy reduced the likelihood that Hispanic victims report crimes to police and increased offending against Hispanics. The number of reported crimes is unchanged, masking these opposing effects. We show that reduced reporting drives the offending increase and provide the first elasticity of offending to victim reporting in the literature, calculating that a 10% decline in reporting increases offending by 7.9%.

Figure2: Impacts of Secure Communities (SC) by Hispanic Ethnicity

Increased immigration enforcement can deter victim reporting, leading to more crime against vulnerable groups; a 10% drop in reporting raises offending by 7.9%.

Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence From Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants Increased immigration enforcement can deter victim reporting, leading to more crime against vulnerable groups; a 10% drop in reporting raises offending by 7.9%.

New Census Working Paper: "Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence From Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants" by Felipe Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily Weisburst
www.census.gov/library/work...

Can early public childcare reduce child penalties? Evidence from Germany This paper studies the effects of public childcare expansion for children under age three in Germany on mothers’ child penalties. Exploiting county-le…

I’m very happy to share that my first paper has been accepted for publication 🎉

Together with my great co-author Nayeon Lim we look at early public childcare in Germany.

More details and the paper link below 👇

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Sitting in a park and a man with purple hair just passed me walking a little white dog with dyed pink ears and a tutu

How Economics Discovered Women by Shelly Lundberg - Hardcover Scholarship is a powerful tool for changing how people think, plan, and govern. By giving voice to bright minds and bold ideas, we seek to foster understanding and drive progressive change.

My book (!) How Economics Discovered Women is now available for pre-order from the University of California Press. The book is a survey and critique of how the economics of gender has developed since the mid-1970s. www.ucpress.edu/books/how-ec...

I'm a data scientist @ourworldindata.org and I need help from a botanist or someone local to Kyoto, Japan! 🌸

We present one of the world’s longest climate records: 1,200 years of peak cherry blossom dates in Kyoto.

The researcher who maintained it, Prof. Yasuyuki Aono, sadly passed away last year.

what I love about old artifacts like these is how easily you can imagine it having been some kid’s favorite jar that was the only thing they’d eat out of and a laughing mother indulging them by getting the happy face jar back out again

Fewer women give birth by 30, but most catch up The share of women in the U.S. who are mothers, by age 100% 90 Age 45 80 70 60 50 Age 30 40 1980 2000 2020 Source: Philip Cohen analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. By The New York Times

I'm very glad Claire Cain Miller was able to include my figures in this NYT story: "Women in Their 20s May Not Be Having Babies, but by 45 Most Probably Will," including @karenguzzo.bsky.social, @alisongemmill.bsky.social, and @marthajbailey.bsky.social.
Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/u...

178,000 U.S. jobs were added in March, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. Can the numbers be trusted? Listen as @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social, who President Trump abruptly fired as BLS chief last summer after a bad jobs report, answers that crucial question. tinyurl.com/bdenuy9m

People don't move across state lines as much as they likely should.

New work out in @jlaborecon.bsky.social by Riley Wilson:

"The Isolated States of America: Home State Bias and the Impact of State Borders on Mobility"

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

Delighted to share our revised paper (w/ @juliaturner.bsky.social & @jacobbastian.bsky.social ) showing that Universal Pre-K has broad effects on local labor markets — effects well beyond only mothers. Larger effects for full-day programs. nber.org/papers/w33767

#EconSky #EarlyChildhood #ECE

The planet Jupiter with its cloud bands seen in shades of pink, rusty red, blue, and purple. The Great Red Spot is a deep navy blue, surrounded by bands and swirls of pink, and light blue.

Hubble's ultraviolet view of Jupiter shows the planet in hues of pink and blue.

jupiter wishes you a very happy trans day of visibility 🏳️‍⚧️

This paper investigates the role that homophily might play in explaining racial/ethnic disparities in the labor market. We find that Black and Hispanic workers are less responsive than White workers to changes in job opportunities, but responsiveness increases when those opportunities present themselves in locations with a higher share own-race population. The analysis makes use of restricted American Community Survey data, accessible through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers, allowing us to include commuting zones that may otherwise not be identified because of suppressed location information in the public data.

Notes: All regressions use the balanced panel, are weighted using CZ population shares, and include two-way (year and CZ) fixed effects. Robust standard errors are clustered at the CZ level. Correction for serial correlation indicates the inclusion of one-, two-, and three-year lags of the dependent variable as additional regressions. *, **, *** => statistical significance at the 90, 95, and 99 percent level, respectively. Sample includes 16-64 year-olds with at least a high school degree and observations from 2008-2019 due to the use of lagged variables.

Black and Hispanic workers move less for jobs than White workers; responsiveness rises in same-race areas, suggesting homophily strongly shapes migration.

The Role of Homophily in Response to Labor Market Opportunities: Differences Across Race and Ethnicity Black and Hispanic workers move less for jobs than White workers; responsiveness rises in same-race areas, suggesting homophily strongly shapes migration.

New Census Working Paper: "The Role of Homophily in Response to Labor Market Opportunities: Differences Across Race and Ethnicity" by Kalee E. Burns and Julie L. Hotchkiss

www.census.gov/library/work...

Founders are known to attract prospective employees by signaling their startup’s mission, culture, and potential. But do they also shape who stays? And if so, does the founder’s influence diminish as the startup matures? Using matched employer-employee data from the U.S. Census, we address these questions, especially focusing on cases of founder premature death to identify plausibly exogenous exits. We find that founder departures significantly increase employee turnover. These effects are stronger in older and larger startups. Further analyses show that the impact of founder departure is more salient among employees who had longer shared tenure or have the same sex as the founder. These patterns suggest that employees develop complementarities with founders over time—an alignment in skills, relationships, or culture— that reinforce founders’ influence as startups mature.

Notes: This figure shows the event study of the estimated effect of founder loss on the startup’s rate of turnover. Each of the five years before and after the founder loss is separately estimated using year t-1 as the reference group. Sample consists of startups that lose a founder due to a premature death along with a matched control group with a placebo treatment year. For the control group, a placebo year is used. Estimated effects for the treated group are plotted along with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Regression specification includes year, industry (NAICS-4), state, and firm age (at time of death shock) fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the firm level.

Founders play a significant role in retaining their initial employees, especially as these young organizations mature.

The Evolving Impact of Founders on Startup Employee Retention Founders play a significant role in retaining their initial employees, especially as these young organizations mature.

New Census Working Paper: "The Evolving Impact of Founders on Startup Employee Retention" by Minjae Kim and J. Daniel Kim

www.census.gov/library/work...

March 18, 2026 Today, civil rights leader Dolores Huerta issued the following statement:

96-year old Dolores Huerta made a gutting confession today. She deserves to be heard in her own words.

Even the most righteous movements find ways to make space for misogyny. medium.com/@dolores_hue...

This study examines how neighborhood status and individual status jointly shape geographic mobility in the United States. Drawing on restricted-use American Community Survey data, we conceptualize neighborhood status as the relative standing of a census tract’s median family income compared to demographically similar reference neighborhoods, and individual status as a household’s relative income rank within its tract. Building on comparison theory and status inconsistency perspectives, we test whether mismatches between neighborhood and individual status influence short-distance (within-county) and long-distance (between-county) mobility. Multinomial logistic models reveal that disadvantaged neighborhood status increases withincounty mobility, particularly when paired with high individual status, supporting spatial assimilation arguments. Conversely, low individual status in high-status neighborhoods heightens mobility, consistent with relative deprivation theory rather than status signaling. Results suggest that status inconsistency plays a central role in residential decision-making and that neighborhood status primarily affects short-distance mobility. The findings advance research on stratification and internal migration by integrating relative contextual and positional mechanisms.

Figure 1. Predicted geographic mobility probabilities estimated from Model 4, Table 2 (moved within-county) by individual status (1st to 5th quintile) and neighborhood status

Neighborhood and individual status jointly shape short- and long-distance mobility in the U.S., with status mismatch driving relocation decisions.

Status Inconsistency and Geographic Mobility in the United States Neighborhood and individual status jointly shape short- and long-distance mobility in the U.S., with status mismatch driving relocation decisions.

New Census Working Paper: "Status Inconsistency and Geographic Mobility in the United States" by Shih-Keng Yi and Ernesto F.L. Amaral

www.census.gov/library/work...

Drawing on American Community Survey data, this study examines how whites’ relative socioeconomic standing vis-à-vis nonwhite neighbors affects the association between minority presence and white out-mobility. Moving beyond the racial preferences versus racial proxy debate, we integrate group competition and contact theories with status theory to conceptualize “racial status” as whites’ first-order income rank relative to the subgroup status of Black, Hispanic, and Asian residents at the census tract level. Multilevel linear probability models show that whites lacking advantaged status are generally more likely to move. However, the positive association between Black or Asian concentration and white departure is weaker among statusdisadvantaged whites, while the negative association with Hispanic concentration is stronger. These patterns lend greater support to contact theory than to group competition theory. By foregrounding relative status, the study demonstrates that racial and socioeconomic mechanisms are intertwined in shaping white residential mobility.

Figure 4. Predicted out-mobility probabilities estimated from Model 5 (Table 2) by percentile of black population proportion and racial status of white

This study shows that whites’ relative socioeconomic status affects how minority presence shapes white out-mobility across U.S. neighborhoods.

Neighborhood Racial Status and White Out-Mobility This study shows that whites’ relative socioeconomic status affects how minority presence shapes white out-mobility across U.S. neighborhoods.

New Census Working Paper: "Neighborhood Racial Status and White Out-Mobility" by Shih-Keng Yen and Ernesto F.L. Amaral

www.census.gov/library/work...

We use data from the Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics linked to the 2000 Census to study intergenerational earnings mobility in the United States. We augment the standard intergenerational transmission model relating children’s log earnings to those of their parent with an additional term representing mean log parent earnings in the childhood neighborhood. The between-neighborhood intergenerational relationship is twice as strong as the withinneighborhood relationship, even after adjusting for measurement error in parents’ earnings. Moreover, mean earnings of the parents in a neighborhood capture over 80% of the variation in unrestricted neighborhood effects that reflect differences in “absolute mobility”. Next, we use an AKM framework to decompose parents’, children’s, and neighboring parents’ earnings into person effects and establishment premiums. Children’s person effects are mainly influenced by parents’ and neighbors’ person effects, whereas children’s establishment premiums are mainly influenced by parents’ and neighbors’ establishment premiums. These patterns point to separate channels for human capital and access to jobs in the intergenerational transmission process. Finally, we explore the implications for the Black-white earnings gap. Neighborhoods explain 30% of the Black-white gap in children’s earnings conditional on parents’ earnings, operating largely through gaps in average person effects. Conditional on neighborhood average earnings, children from neighborhoods with higher Black shares achieve higher adult earnings.

Figure 3. Within- and between-neighborhood income transmission

Using linked LEHD data and AKM methods, this paper examines how neighborhoods and firms shape intergenerational mobility.

How Do Neighborhoods and Firms Affect Intergenerational Mobility? Using linked LEHD data and AKM methods, we examine how neighborhoods and firms shape intergenerational mobility.

New Census Working Paper: "How Do Neighborhoods and Firms Affect Intergenerational Mobility?" by David Card, Jesse Rothstein, and Moises Yi

www.census.gov/library/work...

Transaction-level quantity discounts are a pervasive feature of US trade, shaping both price variation and tariff incidence. Using administrative microdata, we show that these discounts reflect transaction-level scale economies rather than market power. Accounting for these microlevel economies resolves a key puzzle: while observed import prices rose one-for-one with 20182019 US tariffs, we show this was driven by the loss of scale economies as transaction sizes collapsed. Controlling for this scale effect, the strategic pass-through of tariffs to scale-free prices falls to 60 percent, implying foreign exporters absorbed a significant share of the burden through reduced markups.

Notes:Thistablereportsaggregatetariffpass-throughestimatesattheorigin-destination-varietylevelusing differentmethodologiesandtimeperiods.Eachpanelrepresentsadifferenttimeaggregation:PanelAuses monthlydatafrom2018,PanelBusesmonthlydatafrom2017-2019,PanelCusesquarterlydatafrom 2017-2019,PanelDusesyearlydatafrom2017-2019,andPanelEusestwo-yearchangesfrom2017to2019. Column(1)showsthepass-throughofappliedtariffstoobservedunitvalues.Columns(2)and(3)report pass-throughtoscale-freeunitvalues, constructedusingtheOLSandIVestimatesof thescaleelasticity γv,respectively.Column(4)presentspass-throughestimatesusingaCESpriceindextoaccountforquality adjustments.Columns(5)to(8)decomposetheaggregateunitvalueintototalvalue,totalquantity,average ordersize,andnumberoftransactions.Allspecificationsincludevariety-countryoriginandtime-month fixedeffects. Standarderrorsareclusteredatthevariety-countryoriginlevel. Seethetextforfulldetails andsources.

Domestic US tariff pass-through in 2018-19 was only 60%, due to quantity discounts. This implies that foreign producers bore over half the tariff burden.

Did Foreigners Pay America’s Tariffs? Quantity Discounts, Scale Economies and Incomplete Pass-Through Domestic US tariff pass-through in 2018-19 was only 60%, due to quantity discounts. This implies that foreign producers bore over half the tariff burden.

New Census Working Paper: "Did Foreigners Pay America’s Tariffs? Quantity Discounts, Scale Economies and Incomplete Pass-Through" by Sharat Ganapati and Colin Hottman

www.census.gov/library/work...

What are the welfare implications of trade shocks? Theoretically, we provide a sufficient statistic that measures changes in welfare (to a first-order approximation) for the set of workers who start within a region, taking into account adjustment in frictional unemployment, labor force participation, the sectors to which workers apply for jobs, and the regions in which workers choose to live. Our theory is flexible; for instance, it allows for arbitrary heterogeneity in worker productivity and non-pecuniary returns (amenities) across unemployment, labor force nonparticipation, sectors, and regions. Empirically, we apply these insights to measure changes in welfare between 2000-2007 across workers who start in different commuting zones (CZs) in the U.S. in the year 2000. Finally, we identify the differential impact across CZs of a particular trade shock: granting China permanent normal trade relations.

Panel A reports the overall welfare effects across fve specifcations with different sets of controls. Panel B decomposes these effects into changes in the real wage and the unemployment components. Panel A reports robust standard errors clustered by state while Panel B reports robust standard errors clustered by state and Borusyak et al. (2022) standard errors. Regressions are weighted by each CZ’s income of the employed, Ie in 2000. Manufacturing share refers to the share of employed income earned within manufacturing; college share r and foreign born share refer to the relevant shares of the population; female share refers to the female share of employment; routine occupation share and average offshorability refer to the share of employment in the most routine and the most offshorable occupations. These controls are defned in 1990 and taken from Autor et al. (2013). Missing NTRG sector share measures the share of 1980 employment in sectors in which the NTR gaps is not defned, measured using the 1980 LBD. Employment-to-population measures the employment to population rate, measured using the 1980 census. The number of CZ observations is approximate due to U.S. Census Bureau disclosure avoidance requirements.

A new framework and sufficient-statistic approach to measuring how trade shocks affect worker welfare across U.S. commuting zones, applied to China’s PNTR.

Trade and Welfare (Across Local Labor Markets) A new framework and sufficient-statistic approach to measuring how trade shocks affect worker welfare across U.S. commuting zones, applied to China’s PNTR.

New Census Working Paper: "Trade and Welfare (Across Local Labor Markets)" by Ryan Kim, Jonathan Vogel, and Moises Yi

www.census.gov/library/work...

This study examines the causal effect of housing wealth on labor supply using restricted geographic data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The analysis employs a novel household-level instrument that measures the duration of homeowners’ exposure to housing market booms driven by credit expansion in housing supply-constrained areas, leveraging cross-household variation in both the timing and location (counties) of home purchases. Housing wealth negatively affects women’s labor supply, a 1% increase lowers participation by 0.098 pp, but shows no significant effect for men. This negative wealth effect among female workers is driven primarily by childcare responsibilities and human capital investment, as it is strongest among mothers of young children and those who report childrelated reasons for not working. Other potential mechanisms, such as income effects, precautionary saving, or liquidity constraints, do not seem to fully explain the negative association.

Notes: The sample is constructed from the restricted-use versions of the 1991–2004 SIPP panels, limited to individuals aged 15–55 who are homeowners, with observations covering the 1991–2005 period. The IV is constructed as the measure of households’ duration of exposure to housing market booms driven by credit expansion in housing supply-constrained areas. Standard errors are presented in parentheses and are clustered at the county level. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.10.

Housing wealth reduces women's labor force participation, driven primarily by childcare responsibilities, with no significant effect for men.