The Dragon After Orbán Among the many reactions to the collapse of Viktor Orbán and his party in Hungary’s parliamentary elections, one argument stands out: that Orbán cannot be a dictator—because otherwise he would not hav...

If Péter Magyar truly attempts to dismantle Orbán’s system, he will quickly open the door to free political competition and liberal democracy—and lose power, or be forced to change himself. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

The main conclusion the U.S. administration could draw from the results of Hungary’s parliamentary elections and Viktor Orbán’s stunning defeat is this: Europe is not disappearing, and the citizens of European Union countries want to remain Europeans.

Countdown Logic Amid the global security crisis in the Middle East, which effectively began on October 7, 2023, following the Iran and Hezbollah-supported Hamas attack on Israel, it is often heard - at least at demon...

Thus, both states, which found themselves at the epicenter of the largest conflicts since World War II, are doomed to live in the logic of the countdown for the next decades. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

The Scandal of Illusions President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S.

If Russia lacks the resources to wage war, the war itself will cease. Yes, this would make mutually beneficial economic cooperation impossible. But it would also create a chance to prepare for the next wa open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Legitimizing the War Makers After the delegation of the State Duma of the Russian Federation visited Washington, members of the U.S.

The very fact of this visit—and here the congress members who have issued statements of protest are right—is a disgrace for American politics, a disgrace for the Congress substack.com/@portnikov/n...

The Blogs: Without Churchill From the blog of Vitalii Portnikov at The Times of Israel

Society comforts itself with expectations of an inevitable end to the war while politicians comfort themselves with the inevitability of elections.And as long as neither happens,the authorities refrain from decisions that could undermine their elect. prospects blogs.timesofisrael.com/without-chur...

Narva Republic and Donetsk Republik lessons Following publications about the possibility of a "hybrid" Russian attack on Estonia or other Baltic countries, serious discussions have begun in both Ukraine and the West regarding the possibility of...

We were lying to ourselves that your occupation didn't exist, and thus facilitating your lies and preparations for a big war during which it was no longer necessary to play "separs. Why can't Putin use this same mechanism in Estonian Narva?
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Ukraine and the Challenge of the Iranian War The war with Iran demonstrated a truth that is always understood only after the struggle begins: military actions are always practice, not theory.

So the civilized world today has only the experience of the Ukrainian army — and this is invaluable experience. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

The Blogs: The Optics of a Global War From the blog of Vitalii Portnikov at The Times of Israel

To win—and even to survive—it is necessary to change the optics of war. blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-optics-o...

Floors of War A few days before the fourth anniversary of the start of Russia's major attack on Ukraine, an explosion occurred in the very center of Lviv, which law enforcement agencies classified as a terrorist ac...

As long as Russians believe that the statehood of Ukraine should be liquidated, and the Ukrainian people — canceled, the conflict will continue on several levels of escalation, even if Moscow lacks the strength for intensive military actions.
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The Museum of Illusions We Call Reality In recent decades, illusion museums have become a true trademark of global tourism.

Illusion can win elections and dominate social media frenzies, but it can never truly prevail. Life will always defeat both death and lies. And you would do well to stand on its side — if you wish to survive and not lose yourself. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Negotiations That Push Peace Further Away The Munich Conference, during which world leaders traditionally exchanged views about the future—and devoted a great deal of time to Russia’s war against Ukraine—took place literally just a few days b...

In reality, such negotiations do not bring peace closer—they only push it further away, because they allow the administration to refrain from applying greater pressure on Russia under the pretext of fearing to “block” the simulated “peace process.”

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Four months of President Trump The President of the United States emphasized that he is giving the Russian and Ukrainian leaders four months to end the war – and if that does not happen, he will increase pressure on both Russia and...

Not threaten Ukraine and Russia with pressure in four months, but put pressure on Putin now. Apply pressure in such a way that the Russian president is left with no alternative but to stop waging war, killing, and shelling. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Trump, Putin, and the War for Europe’s Future The very fact of U.S.

The Davos Forum forced everyone to lay their cards on the table. It showed that European leaders are beginning to grasp the reality. But understanding is one thing—action is another. The answer to the challenge of Davos 2026 must be real action. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Putin’s “Cold Genocide” This cold winter, almost every day Ukrainians expect new massive Russian strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure.

This means that instead of seeking meaningless dialogue with Putin, pressure on Russia must be increased. It means not boasting about the absence of aid to Ukraine, but strengthening this assistance – particularly by reinforcing air defense. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

The “Oreshnik” signal The latest barbaric bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities by the Russians—and in this case, the epithet "barbaric" is not a rhetorical exaggeration, as it involves attempts to deprive millions of...

So, when Putin is spoken to in the language of pressure, sanctions, and the destruction of his energy companies—he understands.

When he sees attempts to negotiate with him—he launches the "Oreshnik" near European borders. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

The Greenland Lesson During each of my trips to Iceland, I dreamed of at least a brief visit to Greenland.

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2026: A Year of Escalating Chaos and Possible Global Crises When I think about the year 2026, I envision a world sliding even deeper into chaos than it experienced in 2025.

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say: 2026 will be a year of deep political and economic uncertainty. And perhaps a year of global catastrophes.

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On the Normalization of the Russian Regime In light of the scandal involving Leonid Volkov, head of political projects at the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), I want to reiterate my long-standing position: the very essence of these so-called ...

And I truly don’t understand why this part of the Russian émigré community should be called an “opposition.” In reality, this is just a symbiosis of FSB agents and useful idiots.
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How to Stop Putin After meeting with advisers to the leaders of countries that support Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope for a swift conclusion to peace negotiations.

And perhaps it is precisely in Putin’s unwillingness to acknowledge the economic realities of the coming years that the answer lies to the question of whether the war can be ended.

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The World After the Rules Any attempt to forecast what 2026 might look like inevitably runs into a wall—the realization that forecasts no longer work.

We now live in a world where leaders understand only power and learn only from their own mistakes—if they learn at all. This isn’t a new chapter in human history. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

A War That Fades, Not Ends: What 2026 Might Bring The level of chaos the world is currently experiencing makes any attempt to construct a realistic political calendar extremely problematic.

Nevertheless, it can be stated with some confidence that 2026 will be a year not so much of resolution, but of a gradual winding down of the war.
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Chocolate "Trump" The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine at Donald Trump's private residence concluded without any specifics — and honestly, this was not a surprise to me.

This means that if the Russians do not abandon their demands, which cannot be implemented into Ukrainian legislation, negotiations will inevitably reach a deadlock — which, of course, is what Putin wants, but not Trump.

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The Dizzying Truth of the Nuremberg Trials Every time I encounter yet another Western dramatization of the Nuremberg Trials, I am overwhelmed by a deep and almost unbearable sense of shame.

It was the impunity of evil — its triumph, its popularity, its power not only to defend itself but to judge others — that demonstrated the terrible truth: a maniac and a murderer only need to defeat another maniac to succeed. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Why Putin Brought Up “Novorossiya” Again Against the backdrop of ongoing talks that are supposedly meant to lead to an end of the Russian–Ukrainian war, the Russian president, during a press conference in New Delhi, spoke of the inevitabilit...

As we know, in 2014 Putin had to put his large-scale annexation plan on hold. His 2022 blitzkrieg also failed — but that does not mean he abandoned his plan. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Why Russia’s Mercenary Army Works One of the Kremlin’s most effective strategies in minimizing domestic dissent has been the quiet shift from conscription to a mercenary army.

The real test will come when — or if — this system breaks. If Russia, after four years of war under these “rules,” stops paying and starts drafting en masse again, the societal reaction will be very different. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

The “Spirit of Anchorage” Russian officials commenting in recent weeks on the Trump administration’s peace initiatives never fail to emphasize that any U.S.-Russia dialogue on ending the war in Ukraine must reflect the “Spirit...

But Trump is underestimating Putin. For the Russian president, any concession by his opponent is a sign of weakness — and a cue to press harder.
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The Real Danger of the So-Called “Negotiation Process” The greatest danger of this so-called negotiation process is the disorientation of society — and not just Ukrainian society.

But in truth, the entire period from 1914 to 1945 was a single war period — with two massive eruptions. It wasn’t four years. It was thirty.

And now, we are living through a similarly extended wartime era in the history of Europe — and the world. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

Putin and the War to the Last Ukrainian During a meeting with journalists in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, Russian President Vladimir Putin, as if responding to those who wish to “fight to the last Ukrainian”, said that his country is...

But now — from Putin himself — we know for sure that we need to stop not just the war, but the genocide approved and sanctioned in the Kremlin. That is why the pressure on Russia must increase open.substack.com/pub/portniko...

New Peace Plan or an Old Plan of Humiliation Neither the fate nor the final content of the new “peace plan” proposed by U.S.

peace plans that humiliate Ukraine and reward Russia for its brutal and unprovoked aggression only encourage Putin to continue the war open.substack.com/pub/portniko...