Latest BLS PPI report shows prices increased in March for HW lumber, millwork, plywood, wood pallets/boxes, and timber+chip products. In this product group, only SW lumber prices declined in March. The -7% Y/Y change in SW lumber prices is modest compared to the volatile period from 2020-2023.
The authors highlight how this "market-responsive management" timberland management shapes future growing stock inventory and storage of forest carbon.
...may increase or decrease through 2070, depending on the path of the long-term path of the economy and wood demand. The paper also reports that the region's timber markets are highly sensitive to landowners' inventory-supply response ("a proxy for log suppliers' cost elasticity").
The projections show the effect of a combination of low annual demand for softwood pulpwood and high growing stock pulpwood growth. Softwood pulpwood prices in the region are projected to decline through 2070 under all of the author's defined macro scenarios, but timber prices for other products...
Recently published by Manner et al. in Forest Policy and Economics: Market, management, and carbon projections for the Southeastern U.S. forest sector. Softwood pulpwood prices are projected to decline under low annual demand and high rates of inventory growth.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Largest y/y price increases reported for writing/printing paper and hardwood lumber.
Producer prices for softwood lumber up 4% in February ahead of the spring building season. Other notable monthly increases in the PPI reports for writing/printing paper & hardboard/particleboard/fiberboard.
The authors suggest that the time series methodology used in this paper "...offer(s) a valuable tool for analyzing economic resilience in industry-dependent communities..."
...It shows modeled declines in recent employment + number of firms in the forestry/logging and paper manufacturing sectors over most states in their sample (2018-2023). However, wood products employment was projected to have expanded over this period.
This paper uses quarterly state-level macroeconomic data to measure the effects of local economic shocks on employment, wages, and the number of firms operating across the state's forest products sectors...
From Crawley, Daigneault, & Gendron (in Forest Policy & Economics): "Where the trees fall: Macroeconomic forecasts for forest-reliant states"
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
From NC Newsline: "NC forestry officials worry about growing fire dangers, fewer workers"
ncnewsline.com/2026/03/12/f...
Historically, there is a strong positive correlation between global oil price growth and U.S. diesel
price growth. If oil prices remain elevated from sustained global conflict this year, we may also see higher US diesel prices and higher costs for timber harvesting + wood trucking/transportation.
From Zachary Lowry at The Timberland Investor: "The forest industry's exposure to this conflict runs almost entirely through one product: diesel fuel. ... When diesel prices move, harvesting costs move with them..."
thetimberlandinvestor.com/how-the-iran...
An updated table without the product labels cut off...
Headline PPI up 2.9% Y/Y. Largest wood product price increase since last year was for hardwood lumber (+5.2% Y/Y). Largest pulp product price increases were for converted/sanitary papers (+3.1%) and paperboard (+3.0%). Notable declines continued for wood pulp and hardboard/particleboard/fiberboard.
Biomass magazine reports on data from the USDA FAS: US wood pellet exports totaled 10.09 million metric tons in 2025, up 1% from 2024.
biomassmagazine.com/articles/usd...
From Paul Jannke (FEA): imported lumber & plywood are already subject to Sec. 232 measures, so the new tariffs applied under Sec. 122 do not apply. However, other wood products (OSB, eng. lumber, mass timber) are NOT subject to Section 232 measures, so are exposed to the new Sec. 122 duties.
Over 300,000 acres burning in Oklahoma this week, mostly in the western panhandle region. Red flag warnings issued across the state. Some smaller fires are currently burning in the more heavily forested eastern region of the state as well.
www.oklahoman.com/story/weathe...
While starts were comparatively flat, annual building permits issued (-4.2%), average units under construction (-13.1%), and total housing completions (-7.9%) were all down in 2025.
Latest New Residential Construction report: total housing starts in 2025 were estimated to be 1.359 mil. units, down just 0.6% from 2024. In 2025, 69% of these starts were single-family units, which is down from 74% in 2024.
The $WOOD ETF is up 14.3% YTD. Likely factors contributing to a higher valuation are the completion of the RYN/PCH merger, a Stora Enso spinoff of its Swedish forest assets, and earnings beats by WFG & UPM-Kymmene. SPF spot prices (+9%) and futures prices have also recovered over the last 2 months.
From the NAHB: "84% of home builders said that elevated mortgage rates was the most significant challenge builders faced in 2025, and 65% anticipate interest rates will remain a problem in 2026."
www.nahb.org/blog/2026/02...
January 2026 employment in the Mining/Logging sector was estimated to be 603 thous. workers, down 3.1% from a year ago. Avg. monthly employment in these sectors during 2025 was down 2.7% from 2024 and down 7.7% from its average over the prior 10 years (2015-2024).
From economist Devon Dartnell-current challenges depressing US timber markets: weak lumber prices + sluggish housing sector + high interest rates, declining domestic pulp demand & increased foreign production capacity, weak demand for residual chips from pulp manufacturers, higher forest mgmt costs.
From the NAHB: "the 10yr Treasury rate at the beginning of 2026 was at 4.1%. The rate has now increased to 4.3%. This unfortunately means the beneficial impact of the $200 bil. of additional acquisition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS...has been partially offset by international concerns."
