My latest post suggests current inflation worries are likely to be overcome by real growth fears, bringing much greater policy accommodation, resulting in the next leg of this bull market to be led by BROAD market plays rather than by new era stocks. See paulsenperspectives.substack.com
As peace nears, economic slowdown/recession fears emerge: GDP & PCE now at only 1.3% & 1.07%, Citi US surprise index weakening & SF Fed econ news sentiment collapsed. Next up is 2yr Treas Yield to fall below FFs rate -- easing support coming for stocks! See my work
paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Corporate Profits rose at a 26.3% average annualized pace in the 4thQ despite real GDP growth and job creation of only 0.5%. Is a profitable but jobless expansion sustainable or is a reckoning coming? See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
My latest post discusses what the economy may look like should the Iran hostilities soon be resolved. I suspect inflation will prove mild but real economic growth may take a hit. For all the details see paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Monday, I had the great pleasure of again joining @practicalquant and @jjcarbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
www.youtube.com/watch?v=myPa...
The Fed needs to start easing again! Inflation will rise but will likely prove transitory. However, as demonstrated below, US real economic activity is collapsing fast and may prove much more difficult to revive. Sign up for my regular posts at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Why the stock market has held up better in this crisis than widely feared and how it ultimately responds once hostilities are resolved, may depend primarily on the strength of real corporate investment per job. See my latest report for all the details at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
My recent post speaks to the oddity of a plethora (I highlight 15 in total) of bullish signals during the latest crisis. A couple are shown below. For what this may mean, see my full report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
As shown below, the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) currently warns of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown. I haven’t published the WRS for some time and “Walmart Worries” just keep multiplying. For the details see my latest @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
It's rather amazing how much 'broader market plays' have regained leadership in the last two weeks despite ongoing Iranian hostilities. Is this a sign that new era stocks will not regain leadership even after this crisis is resolved. See my latest note @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Compared to the previous 8 oil-based inflationary episodes in the last 40 years, this one has suffered a relatively small rise in oil prices and has a backdrop of much weaker real economic growth than in the past. See my latest @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
As market crisis fears diminsh a bit, leadership within the US stock market is quickly returning to 'broader market plays' rather than the old leadership of new era stocks. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Thanks to Sara Eisen and Michael Santoli for having me on your show today, CNBC's Squawk on the Street! Always a privilege and pleasure getting to join the conversation.
www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...
Nice visit this morning at the open with Alex Coffey at the Schwab Network. Thanks for having me on your show!
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Prior to 2000, US productivity gains were associated with solid job gains. However, as shown in the chart below, since the dotcom top, productivity cycles and the job market have become inversely correlated. See my latest report about US Productivity for free @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
WTI Oil prices have surged by almost 70% but the 10-year bond yield has remained relatively chill (4.3% vs. 4.17%) since year end. As shown below, oil prices are similar to a tax hike likely to lower bond yields in the coming year. See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Does the rise in HH equity allocations and the mkt cap/GDP ratio represent irrational exuberance or are they simply a rational assessment of a lower US recession frequency? Perhaps their higher new normals reflect a lower recession incidence. Details at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
US Recession risk has collapsed in recent years, and the 60/40 portfolio is still the holy grail benchmark for portfolio allocations. If recession risk is less, then the 'optimal' asset mix towards equities probably needs to rise. See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
One daily estimate of CPI inflation, Truflation, is showing only a modest advance so far to the recent surge in oil prices. This is also consistent with a rather muted response from the 10yr bond yield which at 4.23% is the same as it was in mid-Jan. when oil was below $60. Hmmm?
My latest post comments on the crisis adjustment by investors. Several factors are highlighted including the diminished impact of oil prices in the US, eg, Bond yields have been nonplussed by rising oil prices. For all the details, please see my latest missive at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Friday, I had the great pleasure of again joining Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau at Excess Return Podcast for another monthly edition. Click the Youtube link below. Thanks for taking the time to listen in. paulsenperspectives.substack.com
youtu.be/aZbJ7vH2Fts
I had the great pleasure of joining @michaelsantoli and @MelissaLeeCNBC on @CNBCOvertime Friday to discuss the Fed and economic growth. Thanks!
Paulsenperspectives.Substack.com
www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...
US real private GDP rose by 2.3% in 2025, but excluding new era investment, the other 89% of real private spending rose by only 1% with no job creation. The 'larger' old era economy needs policy support! See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Since 1990, stock market leadership has regularly toggled between new era and broader market stocks. As economic policy accommodation finally improves (eg YC steepens), is leadership again toggling back toward broader market plays? See my latest post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Thanks to Paul LaMonica & Barrons
for the chance to be interviewed for this weekend's Magazine! Much appreciated. AI and Tech Stocks Are in Trouble. Look to These Other Sectors, Says This Veteran Strategist. barrons.com/articles/ai-... via
@BarronsOnline
Consumer sentiment among Independents has usually moved in the same direction as Republican sentiment. But since late-2024, Republican sentiment has risen while sentiment among Independents has soured. Have Repubs lost Indeps? See my free post at paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Real GDP growth is less than it averaged during the period after the GFC, inflation is just slightly higher, and job growth is significantly worse. Why is the real 2-year yield still 1.88% HIGHER than it averaged then? See my post "Normal Bond Yields" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com
My latest post introduces a relative Poor/Rich Sentiment Indicator suggesting the S&P 500 may break out of its recent range to the high side. When the Rich lose faith faster than the Poor, it's been a good time to buy stocks. For all the details go to paulsenperspectives.substack.com
Economic policy is finally turning more supportive for the economy and promoting a revival in Main Street confidence. See my latest post on, despite current turmoil, why stock investors shouldn't sell a confidence revival.
paulsenperspectivs.substack.com
I had the great privilege and pleasure of joining
@carlquintanilla, @michaelsantoli, & @CourtReagan
on CNBC @SquawkStreet this morning for a conversation about the economy and the financial markets. Thanks so much for having me! paulsenperspectives.substack.com
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quja...