Advertisement · 728 × 90

Posts by Sarah Lein

Heterogeneity & Inflation: From Microeconomic Variation to Macroeconomic Impact The BIS Innovation Hub Eurosystem Centre and the BIS Monetary and Economic Department, in association with CEPR, CEBRA and Basel University is organising a conference on Inflation Heterogeneity: Micro-Level Variations and Macro-Level Effects. The conference will take place 26-27 May 2026 at the BIS in Basel, Switzerland. This conference will explore different dimensions of heterogeneity - across consumers, firms, and shocks - and the resulting macroeconomic implications for aggregate inflation and policy. It will also explore the practical implications for the measurement, nowcasting and forecasting of inflation, including projects such as Spectrum of the BIS Innovation Hub. The conference is aimed at both academic and policy audiences. Scientific Committee: Raphael Auer (BIS & CEPR), Boris Hofmann (BIS), Sarah Lein (University of Basel & CEPR), Chiara Osbat (ECB), Elvira Prades (BIS & Banco de España), Andras Valko (BIS) and Henning Weber (Bundesbank). Deadline: 15 March 2026

Heterogeneity & Inflation: From Microeconomic Variation to Macroeconomic Impact The BIS Innovation Hub Eurosystem Centre and the BIS Monetary and Economic Department, in association with CEPR, CEBRA and Basel University is organising a conference on Inflation Heterogeneity: Micro-Level Variations and Macro-Level Effects. The conference will take place 26-27 May 2026 at the BIS in Basel, Switzerland. This conference will explore different dimensions of heterogeneity - across consumers, firms, and shocks - and the resulting macroeconomic implications for aggregate inflation and policy. It will also explore the practical implications for the measurement, nowcasting and forecasting of inflation, including projects such as Spectrum of the BIS Innovation Hub. The conference is aimed at both academic and policy audiences. Scientific Committee: Raphael Auer (BIS & CEPR), Boris Hofmann (BIS), Sarah Lein (University of Basel & CEPR), Chiara Osbat (ECB), Elvira Prades (BIS & Banco de España), Andras Valko (BIS) and Henning Weber (Bundesbank). Deadline: 15 March 2026

📢 #CallForPapers - Heterogeneity & Inflation: From Microeconomic Variation to Macroeconomic Impact
📍26-27 May @ BIS | ⌛Deadline: 15 March
cepr.org/events/heter...
@unibas.ch @raphauer.bsky.social @leinsarah.bsky.social #EconSky

2 months ago 5 3 0 1

Annual Macro Meeting of the @vfsecon.bsky.social
@uniheidelberg.bsky.social, May 7-8, 2026
Call for Papers: macroeconomics.committee.socialpolitik.de/sites/defaul...
We welcome submissions in all areas of macroeconomics and from researchers at all career stages.

4 months ago 7 5 1 1
This figure displays the share of the variance of aggregate year-on-year inflation accounted for by each component. The four components are: Macro component, Firm Granular Beyond Top 10, Category Granular, and Firm Granular Top 10. Textbook monetary economics views inflation as fundamentally driven by aggregate shocks, such as money supply or policy rates. This column presents empirical evidence that inflation is highly granular – it is significantly influenced by the prices set by a small number of large firms. Based on an analysis of 2.9 billion barcode-level transactions spanning 16 economies, it shows that firm-level idiosyncratic shocks account for a substantial share of inflation variability in advanced economies. Granular forces were also a key driver of the 2021–22 inflation shock and are shown to slow down the transmission of monetary policy.

This figure displays the share of the variance of aggregate year-on-year inflation accounted for by each component. The four components are: Macro component, Firm Granular Beyond Top 10, Category Granular, and Firm Granular Top 10. Textbook monetary economics views inflation as fundamentally driven by aggregate shocks, such as money supply or policy rates. This column presents empirical evidence that inflation is highly granular – it is significantly influenced by the prices set by a small number of large firms. Based on an analysis of 2.9 billion barcode-level transactions spanning 16 economies, it shows that firm-level idiosyncratic shocks account for a substantial share of inflation variability in advanced economies. Granular forces were also a key driver of the 2021–22 inflation shock and are shown to slow down the transmission of monetary policy.

S Alvarez-Blaser, @raphauer.bsky.social, @leinsarah.bsky.social, & A Levchenko present evidence that inflation in advanced economies is highly influenced by the prices set by a small number of firms. These forces were a key driver of the 2021-22 inflation shock.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

4 months ago 3 1 0 0
Post image

📣Call for papers: 𝟭𝟱𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝗳𝗼 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝘃𝗲𝘆 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮, 17 - 18 October 2025, Munich

Keynotes: Olivier Coibon & @leinsarah.bsky.social

ℹ️ www.ifo.de/en/event/202...

👉 Submit here: auth.oxfordabstracts.com?redirect=/st...
Deadline: 𝟭𝟱 𝗠𝗮𝘆!

@apeichl.bsky.social @bborn.bsky.social

1 year ago 12 5 1 1
Preview
To: The future German chancellor To: The future German chancellor From: Economists For Ukraine. Dear Chancellor, Congratulations on taking the helm of the Federal Republic of Germany! You are in a perfect storm, and Germany mus...

Hey #EconSky

Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d

Please share this letter with your colleagues.

1 year ago 59 25 2 0
Post image

Investigating the role of individual firms and product categories in aggregate inflation, from Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Raphael Auer, Sarah M. Lein, and Andrei A. Levchenko https://www.nber.org/papers/w33404

1 year ago 12 2 1 0
Post image

Call for Papers
Annual Macro Meeting 2025 in Berlin
macroeconomics.committee.socialpolitik.de/sites/defaul...

1 year ago 8 4 1 2
The 2015 Swiss franc appreciation provided researchers with a unique empirical setting for understanding how large exchange rate movements shape economic outcomes. This column discusses key findings about the response of firms and consumers. The relatively muted pass-through observed in Switzerland reveals that a stronger currency does not fully translate into proportionate reductions in consumer prices, either at short or medium horizons. Household heterogeneity is also a key theme – low-income households which are more price-sensitive can benefit disproportionately from cheaper foreign goods, while households near the border can further benefit by shopping abroad.

The 2015 Swiss franc appreciation provided researchers with a unique empirical setting for understanding how large exchange rate movements shape economic outcomes. This column discusses key findings about the response of firms and consumers. The relatively muted pass-through observed in Switzerland reveals that a stronger currency does not fully translate into proportionate reductions in consumer prices, either at short or medium horizons. Household heterogeneity is also a key theme – low-income households which are more price-sensitive can benefit disproportionately from cheaper foreign goods, while households near the border can further benefit by shopping abroad.

The 2015 Swiss franc appreciation showed that a stronger currency does not fully translate into proportionate reductions in consumer prices, either at short or medium horizons.
@raphauer.bsky.social @arielburst.bsky.social @leinsarah.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

1 year ago 14 6 0 0
The CEPR’s Annual Monetary Economics and Fluctuations Symposium 2025, in-person programme meeting will take place at the Study Center in Gerzensee, Switzerland on October 6-8th, 2025. The conference is open to submissions by MEF members and non-members. Submissions in all areas of monetary economics and business cycle analysis are welcome. The deadline for submitting papers is April 15th, 2025. Preference will be given to completed papers. The selected contributors will be notified by May 2025. Submitting authors will be expected to present their papers and participate on all days of the conference, if accepted.

The CEPR’s Annual Monetary Economics and Fluctuations Symposium 2025, in-person programme meeting will take place at the Study Center in Gerzensee, Switzerland on October 6-8th, 2025. The conference is open to submissions by MEF members and non-members. Submissions in all areas of monetary economics and business cycle analysis are welcome. The deadline for submitting papers is April 15th, 2025. Preference will be given to completed papers. The selected contributors will be notified by May 2025. Submitting authors will be expected to present their papers and participate on all days of the conference, if accepted.

📢 #CallForPapers

CEPR and the Study Center Gerzensee welcome submissions for the 2025 CEPR Monetary Economics and Fluctuations #Symposium to be held in Gerzensee, Switzerland from 6-8 October.

📆Submit by: 15 April 2025
More details: cepr.org/events/cepr-...

#EconSky 📈📉 #Conference #Research

1 year ago 9 6 0 3
Advertisement
Ten years after the Swiss franc shock: Lessons on prices, expenditure switching, and inequality The 2015 Swiss franc appreciation provided researchers with a unique empirical setting for understanding how large exchange rate movements shape economic outcomes. This column discusses key findings about the response of firms and consumers. The relatively muted pass-through observed in Switzerland reveals that a stronger currency does not fully translate into proportionate reductions in consumer prices, either at short or medium horizons. Household heterogeneity is also a key theme – low-income households which are more price-sensitive can benefit disproportionately from cheaper foreign goods, while households near the border can further benefit by shopping abroad.

The 2015 CHF appreciation is a key empirical setting for understanding how large exchange rate movements shape macroeconomic outcomes. In a new @voxeu.org column w @leinsarah.bsky.social and Ariel Burstein, we reflect on the main learnings 10 years after the shock
cepr.org/voxeu/column... @cepr.org

1 year ago 4 3 0 0

There is *a lot* of useful information in the disagreement that we see in the expectations data. Which of it is useful depends on the question you are asking.
Recent references for those interested:
-- bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/u...
-- personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers...

1 year ago 6 2 0 0
Post image

A new survey of US households (w/ Michael Weber and Oli Coibion): tinyurl.com/527pnad4

"The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding"

Point 1: Americans expect that the incoming Trump administration will apply heavy tariffs (esp for 🇨🇳).

#Trump #tariff #EconSky

1 year ago 50 12 2 2
Preview
Професор Базельського університету, який документує український спорт в часи війни: інтерв'ю з фотомайстром Ульфом Шиллером Вивчає українську, є професором фінансового обліку у Швейцарії, а у вільний час робить неймовірні спортивні фотографії. Знайомтесь, це Ульф Шиллер.

„Professor of the @unibasel.bsky.social who documents Ukrainian Sport during the war“

ua.tribuna.com/blogs/fotobl...

1 year ago 4 1 0 0
Preview
Financing democracy: Why and how partners should support Ukraine While continued support is vital for Ukraine to prevail in its war with Russia, it currently looks at risk. Further US support is held up in Congress, while the EU is struggling to approve a financial...

A new CEPR Policy Insight on supporting Ukraine

1) The cost of NOT supporting UKR is super high
2) Ukraine will be able to take care of itself in the future

Put bluntly, the more aid Ukraine receives today, the faster it can win the war and and the lower the ultimate cost to West of RUS invasion.

2 years ago 12 8 0 0
Post image

Tausende Hausbesitzer:innen müssen in den nächsten Monaten ihre #Hypothek erneuern – die meisten zu deutlich höheren #Zinsen. Doch wie lange bleiben die Zinsen noch hoch? Hinweise gibt es im neuen #Geldcast

Jetzt abonnieren!
🎥 youtu.be/701Y_9HBx3E

2 years ago 0 1 0 0
Post image

Congratulations Andreas Müller

2 years ago 4 2 0 0

Exciting news 🥳!! Angelo #Ranaldo will be joining our faculty from August 2024 onwards. I am looking forward to our new colleague with his groundbreaking research agenda 🚀!!! Welcome Angelo! #moneyFinance

wwz.unibas.ch/de/newsdetai...
@kurtschmidheiny.bsky.social

2 years ago 5 1 0 0
Advertisement
Post image

Thank you Francesco D'Acunto, Michael Weber, and BFI for organizing "Inflation Expectations: Determinants and Consequences Conference"!

bfi.uchicago.edu/event/inflat...

2 years ago 6 1 0 0

Genau, wie es Robert Habeck sagt: „…die Hamas kämpft nicht für die Freiheit, sie kämpft nicht für die Palästinenserinnen und Palästinenser, nicht für die Menschen. Sie kämpft, sie mordet sinnlos nur für sich“

2 years ago 9 0 0 0

Welcome @almutballeer.bsky.social!

2 years ago 1 1 0 0

If you are interested, here is a link to the slides of all presenters/discusssants bfi.uchicago.edu/event/inflat...

2 years ago 3 1 0 0
Post image Post image

Bye bye, Chicago! Returning from an excellent conference organized by Michael Weber and Francesco D‘Acunto on Inflation Expectations: Determinants and Consequences. I learned so much from the fantastic presenters and discussants (in particular from the brilliant discussant of our paper, Ina Hajdini)

2 years ago 4 0 1 0