New paper!
The UK plans to restrict visa access for ‘mid-skill’ occupations- except for those on the Temporary Shortage List of exemptions.
We ask: What effects would loss of visa access have for labour supply? Which occupations should be on that list?
5) There are plenty of sensible options for improving the reforms. Our priorities would be:
- Protecting people already on routes to settlement.
- Ensuring there is a maximum qualifying period for settlement to avoid lengthy waits.
- Safeguards for children and for people at risk of exploitation.
4) There is also a particular risk of child poverty - our work with NRPF Partnership and Landsman Economics, covered in today's Times, suggests that up to 90,000 children could be affected by 2029/30.
www.praxis.org.uk/news/settlem...
3) But there are risks that the current proposals could impede integration by creating very long pathways to settlement.
And without a sophisticated understanding of contribution, the reforms could end up privileging high earners over those who contribute in other ways.
2) As we @ippr.org argued previously, the govt's migration principles of control, contribution and compassion are the right ones. There is a defensible version of settlement reform which promotes integration and contribution.
A few thoughts on earned settlement after a busy week.
(1) Govt is going through consultation after over 200,000 people responded, far higher than other consultations of this type.
This means there is still a lot up for grabs to shape the policy, including transitional measures.
Good speech by Rachel Reeves today with her clearest articulation yet of the government's growth agenda. She's right to be focussing on boosting succesful economic clusters. While also lifting employment rights, competition and devolution to make sure benefits are shared. (1/4)
Home Affairs Select Committee report highlights unanswered questions on settlement: "It is more important to get changes right than to implement them quickly"
publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cm...
Congrats!
OUT TODAY: Our new report explores inclusion and belonging in Newham, the most super-diverse borough in the UK and possibly in Europe. It shares the findings and recommendations of an independent commission established by the Mayor and chaired by @sundersays.bsky.social
New stats show the asylum appeals backlog was over 80,000 cases at the end of 2025, relating to around 104,000 people - a 91% increase on a year before. 4 in 10 of all asylum appeals disposed of in the last 3 months of 2025 were withdrawals, the majority of which will be by the Home Office.
On this point, have you looked at any data on SET(P) refusals (by nationality)? Just had a look at HO settlement data but it's a bit patchy and couldn't see nationality breakdowns beyond 2024. Would be useful to see what's been happening in recent months with Syrian applications
Yes it's a v good point and a trap I've also fallen into when trying to give a shorthand explanation of the approach. I think this is from HO itself: www.gov.uk/government/n...
Protecting what matters: the government’s social cohesion action plan, published today
www.gov.uk/government/p...
More generally, @ippr.org view is that we need a fair, well-managed and compassionate system of immigration. For instance, our recent analysis of the government's earned settlement proposals: www.ippr.org/articles/far...
The Green policy to automatically give a work visa to anyone with an employment contract would almost certainly lead to a very sharp increase in migration.
The policy to remove all administrative and physical barriers to people coming to the UK to claim protection would have a similar impact.
Hi Daniela, I think that's the first time I've ever been described as Farage-lite! The comments here are only a reflection on likely impacts of Green immigration policies, not a criticism.
My thoughts on the Home Sec's immigration speech @ippr.org
The Home Sec believes in control + compassion. It's the right ambition.
But her plans may struggle to tackle small boat crossings and risk making integration harder.
I make the case instead for a more focused approach to migration reform
Home Secretary's statement on asylum changes now published ⬇️
No details on the work/study route yet - these will be expected in future Immigration Rule changes
Ah interesting, thanks Jon. Were the FR caseworkers moved into different roles at same time as the pause or is that a separate change?
And as @sonial77.bsky.social has highlighted, we've seen a dramatic fall in the grant rate of Syrian asylum claims following fall of Assad - from 98% in 2024 to 9% in 2025
The number of refugee family reunion visa grants in the last quarter of 2025 nearly halved compared to the previous quarter, following the restrictions introduced in September.
The number of people claiming asylum in 2025 was just over 100,000, slightly lower than the previous year but still high.
This was driven by small boat arrivals – including from Eritrea, Afghanistan, Iran and Sudan – and asylum applications from people who previously held a work or study visa.
There has also been a slight fall in hotel use, but numbers in asylum hotels are still stubbornly high.
This is most likely down to large numbers of asylum claims stuck at appeal stage, prolonging people's stay in hotels.
Some headline thoughts on asylum stats out today:
Government has made good progress on asylum backlog. Numbers have fallen from around 62,000 cases in September to around 49,000 cases at the end of December 2025. This is now well below half the peak in summer 2023.
I wrote for the Guardian about why Jim Ratcliffe's talk of Britain being "colonised" by immigrants crosses the line between legitimate debate and inflammatory rhetoric. It fuses echoes of Powellism with great replacement conspiracies of "civilisational erasure"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
New @ippr.org analysis today finds that around 1.35m already on routes to settlement will face a longer default waiting period before they can apply for permanent residence under Home Office plans.
Just over 300,000 are children, mostly dependants of workers.
New analysis @ippr.org that 300,000 children currently in Britain will be adversely affected by government’s settlement reforms. The government consultation closes on Thursday. Dozens of MPs are concerned that impacts to their constituents & families feel unfair
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...
The government’s consultation on its proposed settlement proposals closes on Thursday. Over 130,000 responses had been received with a week to go & 232,000 people and 107,000 people signed two petitions about this debated in Westminster Hall on Mondsy
www.gov.uk/government/c...