I suppose this is really where the rubber meets the road...

FWIW - It's not the answer that matters as much as it is that the question is being asked in the first place...

cc @sethgodin.bsky.social

A great example this morning from Seth Godin of the subtle ways our feeling of certainty impacts our view of the world around.

When we say things can only get "even better" or "even worse", we're unknowingly expressing how certain we are in the state of what is now.

LOL - The media's coverage of corporate hedges - not to mention CEOs' delight in those hedges - would appear to perfectly mirror their perceived value...

When will Americans take the blame? [FREE TO READ] US war of choice in Iran risks turning Americans into global pariahs

My latest Swamp Note with @peteratwater.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/ffac2b0e-4... When will Americans take the blame?

Great thoughts as usual from @sethgodin.bsky.social and something to remember when confidence is low and, as a result, our time frame is always "now."

Watch Iran Impact Hitting Those at Bottom of 'K-Shaped Economy Hardest, Says Peter Atwater - Bloomberg Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts, said that fallout from the Iran war is 'disproportionately' impacting those at the bottom of the 'K-shaped economy' as Americans feel the crunch of high...

ICYMI - Here's the video of my conversation yesterday with @BloombergRadio's @carolmassar and @timsteno where we discussed consumer and investor confidence amid the backdrop of Iran and the K-Shaped Economy.

www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

A Sunday morning thought:

When we express gratitude, we unknowingly remind ourselves of the sources of confidence in our life - the people, places and things that matter most to us and where in our life we feel most certain and in control.

The consequences of a marked-to-market world With more real-time information on tap for retail investors and consumers, impact of falling asset prices can be felt more quickly

FWIW - This column I wrote for @FT back in 2022 on the consequences of a marked-to-market economy seems even more relevant today given how top-heavy the global economy has become.

www.ft.com/content/e528...

Opinion | How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich?

That moment when someone finally awakens to what I have all but yelled since March 2020. The K-Shaped Economy isn't about economics; it's about confidence and the divide in Americans' feelings of certainty and control

Welcome to the team @davidfrenchjag.bsky.social

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/o...

Our imagination of the future perfectly mirrors our level of confidence.

Therefore, we need to remember to prepare for a future that will inevitably be worse than we imagine when we feel invincible and prepare for a future that will be far brighter when we feel desperate.

Few things reveal that we're in the Passenger Seat like the hats we wear.

When we put on a hat, we unknowingly cede control to it.

A word to policymakers on both sides of the aisle: things are far worse at the bottom of the K than you imagine, especially when measured by feelings of powerlessness and uncertainty.

I think you meant "even more fraud."

“Long oil may be emerging as the next ‘meme theme’ for retail investors.” www.ft.com/content/04ff...

The War with Iran: Using the Confidence Quadrant for Scenario Planning in Real-Time While others consider the geographic chessboard, I'd offer that the one that really matters is the one below, given that our location on the Confidence Map drives the choices we and others make. As we...

My "Sunday Morning Thought" today is on how to use the framework from my book "The Confidence Map" to better understand and anticipate the decision-making of the key individuals and groups in the War with Iran.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/war-ir...

Great list and a reminder of what a tipping point March 11, 2020 truly was.

Participant Confidence Ahead of the Attacks on Iran | Peter Atwater As a researcher focused on the impact of confidence on decision-making, when major events take place, I quickly find myself trying to assess the relative confidence of the key decision makers. How di...

As a researcher focused on the impact of confidence on decision-making, when major events happen, I find myself thinking about the mood in the room in the moment before the decision was made.

On March 1st, I did just that for my clients:

www.linkedin.com/posts/peter-...

FWIW - If there is anything to be taken away from the past 10 days it is that in a hyper-financialized economy anything that matters can be easily and immediately weaponized - and not by the attacker so much as by the markets themselves.

Just a reminder that those at the bottom of the K are far more likely to know an active service member than those atop the K.

Fresh Shocks, Same Strategy: Unfazed Retail Investors Keep Hitting ‘Buy’ Individual investors have kept on buying through recent stock slides.

“It’s a huge testament to the psychology of American investors—they’re showing a huge ability to basically see the glass half full in any set of circumstances,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “The mindset has become ‘this too shall pass.’”

www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

How you experience our economy depends entirely on where you’re living, what you’re doing, what you want and how badly you need it."

- Sam Sifton

Indeed.

The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity [Atwater, Peter] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity

For those who have held off, it looks like "The Confidence Map" is now half off on Amazon.

www.amazon.com/Confidence-M...

The Exotic Makeover of the Once-Boring ETF Market Riskier, more-expensive funds are being launched in droves.

“ETF issuers are firing the spaghetti cannon at the wall in the hopes that a couple of noodles stick”

www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

Anymore I feel like the financial services industry is doing a historical reenactment of the opioid crisis with the ETF industry playing the role of the Sackler family.

Insatiable

‘The Roots of Populism in the U.S. can be seen in the flip side of the long ascension by Corporate America’s profit margins: the long bear market in labor’s share of income.’ haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-d...

“The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, and New York Fed researchers found that they were particularly high in lower income zip codes.”

I realize attention is elsewhere at the moment, but there's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...