Turning the Corner: Momentum Builds in Ukraine’s Strike & Ground Defence Campaigns While Pacific Democracies Enhance their Strategic Deterrence. My weekly update on war and strategic competition. This week, Ukraine's long-range strike & ground ops, Russia still not generating momentum in its spring offensive and Pacific security issues.

“Ukraine is acting & performing like it has the strategic momentum in this war; there is a fair argument that maybe now it does.” My latest. mickryan.substack.com/p/turning-th...

NEW: Russian and Ukrainian reporting appears to confirm battlefield reporting that Ukrainian forces have achieved a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar040926 (1/8)

Today is the day to vote YES on renewing the 1% city earnings tax. And I'm sure the elections officials will be glad to see you!

(Was very light turnout when I voted... just me! And there were about 10 election officials.)

Great advocacy!

Got to be the highest number of bumpouts removed in a month though, right?

Today is the Transgender Day of Visibility and I'll take the opportunity to once again say that trans people matter, their lives have meaning, and what's being done to them by so many politicians and people in this country is wrong.

The state of Tennessee is moving towards creating a full registry of trans people by requiring medical providers to report all of their personal health information to the state department of health.

Adjusted for inflation, the 120k new housing units led to rent falling by an incredible 28% in just 5 years.

Huge YIMBY win, devastating anti-YIMBY loss.

Why is the city of Los Angeles stopping affordable housing during a housing crisis?

Paramount Wins Bidding War for Warner Discovery After Netflix Drops Out Paramount emerged victorious in the fight to buy Warner Bros. Discovery after Netflix said it wouldn’t match the David Ellison-led company’s latest offer for the iconic Hollywood property.

The Ellisons win Warner. www.wsj.com/business/med...

Do you remember that very night -- the night before the day of all days, four years ago?

How many of us didn’t sleep at all.

We sat in the dark in silence, in front of our laptops, refreshing news feeds.

Rising Progressive Star Shakes Up Race for Los Angeles Mayor

"Nithya Raman, who has been compared to Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York, presents a significant challenge to the incumbent, Mayor Karen Bass." NYT gets the scoop

Congress Targets Housing Crisis as Solutions Elude Trump

Next week, the House will vote on a bill to tackle the housing crisis. The Senate already passed a similar one. If this becomes law, it would be the biggest change in federal housing policy in a generation. I wrote about it today. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...

Video Shows Federal Agents Shooting Man in Minneapolis He was shot multiple times after being wrestled to the ground by authorities.

A man was wrestled to the ground and shot multiple times by federal agents in Minneapolis

It is so sad to see people actually oppose this sort of thing

Russia unleashes ‘energy terror’ in bitter Ukrainian winter Moscow targets energy system as Kyiv suffers minus 20C temperatures

Russia unleashes ‘energy terror’ in bitter Ukrainian winter ft.trib.al/Qx7skE0

Video Analysis of ICE Shooting Sheds Light on Contested Moments

A new NYT video analysis by confirms that Renee Good's vehicle did not run over Jonathan Ross and did not strike him. It's possible that it brushed up against him, but that remains unclear. Ross should be under arrest. This is a gift link. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/v...

F.B.I. Searches Home of Washington Post Journalist for Classified Material

The FBI raids the house of a Washington Post journalist basically to learn about her sourcing: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/u...

We need people to not be afraid to say "immigration is good"!

Immigration is good!

Big, big get for Democrats, who now have an honest-to-God, no-squinting path to the Senate majority (NC, ME, OH, AK).

Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell YouTube video by Federal Reserve

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Dark stuff.

Some new insights on vacancy and housing markets Vacancy may be as important as the number of bedrooms in determining the value of your home.

I did a brief run-through of the findings here for those interested!

substack.com/home/post/p-...

Excited to share findings on housing markets & vacancy:

Using ML methods, we show how vacancy can be more predictive in STL housing prices than the # of bedrooms.

Policymakers may wish to re-orient vacancy responses. How do we prevent neighborhoods from decline once vacancy is introduced?

First, I want to extend my gratitude to all the people who have reached out from across the country and around the world to support our family. This kindness of strangers is the most fitting tribute because if you ever encountered my wife, Renee Nicole Macklin Good, you know that above all else, she was kind, In fact, kindness radiated out of her. Renee sparkled. She literally sparkled. I mean, she didn't wear glitter but I swear she had sparkles coming out of her pores. All the time. You might think it was just my love talking but her family said the same thing. Renee was made of sunshine, Renee lived by an overarching belief: there is kindness in the world and we need to do everything we can to find it Where it resides and nurture it where it needs to grow Renee was a Christian who knew that all religions teach the same essential truth: we are here to love each other, care for each other, and keep each other safe and whole. Like people have done across place and time, we moved to make a better life for ourselves. We chose Minnesota to make our home. Our whole extended road trip here, we held hands in the car while our son drew all over the windows to pass the time and the miles,

What we found when we got here was a vibrant and welcoming community, we made friends and spread joy: And while any place we were together was home, there was a strong shared sense here in Minneapolis that we were looking out for each other. Here, I had finally found peace and safe harbor. That has been taken from me forever. We were raising our son to believe that no matter where you come from or what you look like, all of us deserve compassion and kindness. Renee lived this belief every day. She is pure love. She is pure joy. She is pure sunshine On Wednesday, January 7th, we stopped to support our neighbors. We had whistles. They had guns. Renee leaves behind three extraordinary children; the youngest is just six years old and already lost his father. I am now left to raise our son and to continue teaching him, as Renee believed, that there are people building a better world for him. That the people who did this had fear and anger in their hearts, and we need to show them a better way. We thank you for the privacy you are granting our family as we grieve. We thank you for ensuring that Renee's legacy is one of kindness and love. We honor her memory by living her values: rejecting hate and choosing compassion, turning away from fear and pursuing peace, refusing division and knowing we must come together to build a world where we all come home safe to the people we love. E

Renee Macklin Good's wife, Becca Good, released a statement and it moved me to sobbing tears:

archive.is/ur35j

Kyiv is currently entirely without power and heating after today’s attack. Authorities urged people to leave the city if they can. This is a humanitarian disaster, in case anyone didn’t know

Minn. Officials Say They’re Being Blocked From Investigating Fatal ICE Shooting Federal officers fired tear gas to disperse early-morning protesters as outrage mounted in Minneapolis over the killing of a 37-year-old woman in her vehicle.

Breaking News: U.S. agencies blocked Minnesota officials from investigating the fatal shooting a 37-year-old woman by a federal immigration agent, a state official said.

You cannot cheer America’s illegal attack on Venezuela while condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s threats against Taiwan. Selective application of international law means no rule of law.

There's significant evidence from state legislative term limits that they do, in fact, empower both lobbyists and state executive branches.

"Disagreeing" without offering any counter-evidence is just vibes.

Ballots, tax returns and other important mail may not get postmarked the day you turn it in, Postal Service warns | CNN Politics If you rely on postmarks when casting your ballot, filing your taxes or paying bills, a new US Postal Service rule makes it clear that you should plan ahead.

Why isn't there more shouting about this? This is the USPS undermining mail-in ballots. They find every opportunity to subvert voting and democracy.
Ballots, tax returns and other important mail may not get postmarked the day you turn it in, USPS warns
www.cnn.com/2025/12/31/p...