As the US grapples with rising oil prices amid its conflict with Iran, it’s important to keep all options open. I spoke with @nytimes.com about how this moment differs from the situation four years ago with Russia. Read here: nytimes.com/2026/03/19/us/politics/iran-oil-sanctions.html
Americans continue to face uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s ruling against the use of IEEPA to impose sweeping tariffs. I recently joined @vox.com Today, Explained to discuss the evolving tariff landscape and what to expect going forward: open.spotify.com/episode/0S72yebCkVoWSz63M8LA92
Targeting Russia’s shadow fleet is crucial to weakening its economy and ending its assault on Ukraine. @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social and I explain why in our recent op-ed in @kyivindependent.com. Our full analysis with Harold Koh here: www.brookings.edu/articles/sti...
Great to visit CAP to debate solutions to the affordability crisis. @tarasinc.bsky.social and I argued against price controls, while finding common ground with @bharatramamurti.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social on the need for real action to make life more affordable. Watch:
It was a pleasure joining NPR’s @wamu.org 1A with the incomparable @richardrubindc.bsky.social to discuss how funding and personnel cuts in the first year of Trump’s second term have destabilized the IRS, reducing federal revenue and economic efficiency. Listen here: tinyurl.com/42rjmeye
Figure showing the in-migration, out-migration, and net immigration in the United States from 2020 to the present with projections for 2025 and 2026. Net immigration peaks in 2023 followed by a downturn, potentially reaching negatives in 2025 and 2026.
New report @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social, and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social examines the economic impact of Trump-era immigration policies. After 2025’s net negative migration, 2026 is projected to remain low or negative, weighing on growth. Read here: shorturl.at/q1jOM
It was great to share a beer with Emily Gross on her show @beerocracy.bsky.social. We talked about the K-shaped economy, the affordability crisis, and much more. Watch our conversation here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT6i...
Federal economic statistics are critical to understanding America’s economy. But after an unprecedented shutdown, data releases are delayed—or never collected. I joined NPR's @wamu.org 1A to explain what that means for U.S workers and businesses. the1a.org/segments/wha...
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social and I recently joined @fletcherschool.bsky.social Professor Michael Klein on the @econofact.bsky.social podcast for a chat about the consequences of a rising national debt, and America’s prospects for long-run fiscal solvency. Listen here: econofact.org/podcast/long...
ICYMI, I recently discussed the future of Trump’s tariffs on Bloomberg's "Balance of Power," arguing that the tariff pause reflected the power of the bond market as a referee on policy. Watch here: www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
In a new piece, @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social and I document the origins of Russia’s shadow fleet. Tracking the ownership history of 75 sanctioned ships, we find that nearly 60% of them previously had European owners. Read it here:
Alternatively, in our most optimistic scenario, in which AI reduces mortality while also lowering the costs and demand for healthcare, annual deficits fall by 0.8% of GDP in 2044, or about $500 billion per year.
If AI technology leads to a larger old-age population without substantially improving healthcare prices and efficiency, it could increase annual deficits. Our most pessimistic scenario puts 2044 deficits around 1.6% of GDP larger relative to the baseline—about $1 trillion.
And of course, longer lifespans mean more people drawing from SS and Medicare. For example, if AI reduces mortality by 3% (as opposed to 0.74% in the baseline), the old-age population will rise from 73.2 million to 82.4 million in 2044.
A key takeaway is that this technological shock could be different from the internet boom—which boosted productivity and incomes—because AI could also lead to much longer lifespans.
Given the uncertainty around AI, we simulate four scenarios with varying effects of AI on mortality, population, the price of health care, and health care utilization.
Today, Brookings released a report I wrote with Neil Mehrotra and Eric So modeling the impact of AI on old-age entitlement expenditures like Medicare and Social Security. Read it here: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
Check out today's @nytimes op-ed by @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and me arguing that the Trump Administration's reckless approach to fiscal policy raises the risk of a fiscal and financial crisis:
US Debt is ~100% of GDP, and the debt limit is getting closer. Congress is now marking-up a budget that will take on trillions in new debt. What are the true costs of debt? And should we worry about a fiscal crisis? Read my new paper with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and Louise Sheiner here:
