I don’t have a take on the overall debate, but the “firing above their heads” claim is not widely accepted
“Marshall's findings were later challenged as mistaken or even fabricated,[11][12][13] and were not replicated in a more rigorous study…”
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowardi...
bsky.app/profile/diew...
This should hopefully become a textbook example of “passthrough.” Consumers paid most of the tariffs in higher prices even though importers nominally made the payments
Unfortunately, consumers won’t get rebates it seems
Question: do we know for sure that the FBI under Biden did not stop a similar number?
Don’t forget: USPS postmarks now come later in the process so that more mail-in ballots can be rejected!
73 32 99 111 109 112 108 101 116 101 108 121 32 97 103 114 101 101 33
I agree that’s a good metric, especially if no Harris donations
Some highly engaged voters vote in the other party’s primary if they want to influence that decision (eg, to stop an unwanted opposing candidate). Possible here?
Freedom of Speech by Norman Rockwell
I don't think Kamala Harris would've threatened to commit genocide in Iran on a random Tuesday morning a month after starting an unwinnable war with them for no reason
Donald J. Trump K @realDonaldTrump A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
Evil.
No other word for it.
Gen. Caine and Adm. Cooper should put a statement now making clear the U.S. military will not follow orders that would mean committing war crimes, including military actions whose purpose would be to destroy a country or a civilization.
In another world, another timeline, I have the space to marvel at these achievements without my mind falling back down to darknesses here on Earth
Student visas for Africa’s best and brightest were canceled by the Trump administration, leaving empty seats and broken dreams. “A punch to the heart,” said one woman who lost her scholarship.
Line chart showing presidential approval rates for disaster aid requests submitted by Democratic- and Republican-led states, covering the period from the Reagan administration to today. The chart is based on a Politico/E&E News analysis of records from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
89% – percentage of disaster aid requests Trump has approved for states with a Republican governor and two Republican senators
23% – percentage of disaster aid requests Trump has approved for states with a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators
www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
They were never serious about making this a "pause." Now, thousands of people can't get work permits or are separated from their spouses/kids because the administration wrote out a list of disfavored countries
glad it was covered, what stress
we had a more minor version of this: ~2 weeks in NICU, nominal bill more like $500,000 and surgery later, but had good coverage and not much stress on the insurance end
so I was personally just curious
What happened with your $1.3 million bill — is there a post I can read? That’s crazy
I think the president should need Congressional approval to send thousands of ground troops to invade another country
You can make attempts or approximations to extend here, but is it worth the kludge vs. transforming the outcome?
Question from a practitioner: one issue I run into is that while you can extend standard OLS to Poisson, some other common packages/techniques aren't amenable to this. Eg, standard RD packages [esp. for optimal BWs]; Conley SEs...
I struggle to communicate my fury about the easing of sanctions on Russia's oil as a result of the Iran war.
Unlike basically anything suggested as an objective in this fool war, containing Russia's ability to brutalize and dominate Eastern Europe *actually is* a vital US security interest.
Trump fantasizes about conquering NATO allies Canada, Denmark/Greenland, but we’re struggling to keep global shipping open with Iran — poorer, fewer allies, and a divided population
Insane
Thousands of people will likely die in this war and the most consistent rationale given is that it’s for one man’s ego
Trump wants to be “personally involved” (per article). Not the US, not US interests — Trump personally
Among other things, let's say this really does lead to regime change in Iran (unlike Venezuela)
What happens to all the nuclear material we've supposedly been negotiating about?
It’s incredible how much US military power can do without achieving concrete political goals. We removed one hostile head of state (Maduro) and maybe another (Khamenei)
But what will change in Iran/Venezuela for the good?
It’s (effectively) a joke, but this actually reflects the real costs of tariffs. Businesses handed over the money but also raised their prices and bore less of the cost
US Consumers paid most of the tariffs via those high prices, meaning they should get the rebates
Kevin Hassett condemning an analysis of the incidence of import tariffs that looks at import prices because he says one should also look at quantities. The second exhibit in libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is… is titled "China’s Share of U.S. Imports Has Fallen Markedly".
Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.
Glad to see this is out in @nber.org WP series and since my excellent co-author @chinemeluokafor.bsky.social and I have been discussing the results for the past few weeks, here's an old-fashioned paper thread on why protests matter/can work to influence economic redistribution 1/n
No one will be able to say they didn't know what was happening.